Mid-term elections in the USA – Chaos wins

A few hours before the by-elections which has been called the most important in American history and a stress test for democracy, Republicans will surely win and Democrats are doomed. In several Senate elections, it is true that few votes can decide. Pole out or pole in will determine who gets the majority in the powerful house, but the House of Representatives appears to be lost.

To avoid risks, I rush with the usual warnings that are repeated every time the polls are presented: the polls have already failed. Trump voters are harder than ever to assess. Even in normal times, voters were surprised on election day.

SV’s last chance

But surprisingly it would be be if the Republicans don’t win. With a few exceptions, the incumbent president’s party has always gone with a bang in the first by-elections, and now it’s expensive time and an energy crisis. The only reason there is still tension around the Senate is a handful of Trump candidates that even devoted Republicans have a hard time swallowing.

Let’s assume, however, that political gravity remains and Republicans take power in Congress. What will it mean, other than that both chambers will be full of people denying that Joe Biden is the legitimate president of the country? This week, Republicans themselves unveiled a 1,050-page document, which outlined what voters can expect over the next two years. Most were filler in something other than the order of priority, and many were accusations and family plans; cuts in public health services and pensions, privatizations, tax cuts for the richest and attacks on the FBI, critical race theory, self-determined abortion, etc. Last but not least, Republicans will initiate a scrutiny of everything from Hunter Biden’s laptop to Dr. Fauci to Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The president can veto many things. But the Republicans’ plan appears to be to create as much chaos and crisis as possible to make effective government impossible for Biden. A bit like Mitch McConnell and co. done to Obama, only even more unbridled and vengeful. Several Republicans have said they will impeach Joe Biden, the attorney general, and several other Democratic leaders. No matter what, they admit bland. Agenda number one is pure revenge for Donald Trump. He will prepare the ground for the presidential elections of 2024.

This is unlikely to be the majority American voters need or want right now, but they have less and less that they should have said. A large percentage of Republicans say they won’t even listen to them in elections.

Seen from Norwegian and international eyes, even the agenda is not particularly cheerful; at least not if you are interested in climate cooperation, aid and support for Ukraine. Trump’s Republicans have a marked isolationist bent. They don’t call themselves America First for nothing.

It’s not nice Joe Biden in the final sprint he plays even more like Uncle Joe, an old-school politician who remembers the time when Democrats and Republicans worked together and respected each other for the good of voters and the country. Who quotes his grandfather’s words of wisdom and speaks of virtues such as honesty, integrity and decency.

Biden has already done the most important work he’s been commissioned to do. He sent Donald Trump out of the White House. But he also promised that he would unite the country and reconcile the voters. He really he did not succeed. Rather, the polarization has increased and seems to have occurred to him over the past few weeks. He looks dejected and exhausted. Sure, he’s occasionally glimpsed the old arts and managed to get through a couple of major cross-cutting decisions in Congress when it comes to infrastructure, among other things, but overall he’s the embodiment of an era that has passed.

It went fast. In the election campaign two years ago, Trump had to at least give the illusion of distancing himself from right-wing extremism and wild conspiracy theories. Now the Qanon community is openly linked to some Republicans, and Trump himself shamelessly posted a photo of him manipulated with a Qanon pin on his chest. In a few days he will probably announce that he is again a candidate in the elections, also to prevent the countless investigations into him.

Many Democrats have accused Biden of being stuck in the past. The rules of the game have changed, the Democrats have to catch up with the same coin, they believe. If the party loses the election on Tuesday, that group will become more outspoken and demand a change. There is a lot at stake.