Mid-term election results … North Korea disappointed, South Korea difficult?

Contrary to expectations, the ruling (Democrat) party did well in the midterm elections in the United States, raising the possibility of a re-election of President Joe Biden. President Biden said he would make a decision early next year on whether to run for re-election.

Midterm elections are usually often the “ruling party’s graveyard”, but this time it was different. Neither side had a “stunning victory,” but the Democrats are believed to have defended the Senate instead of giving up the House.

Numerically, it is a republican victory. However, it can be said that the result did not live up to expectations, as it aimed to dominate both the House and the Senate.

If the Republican Party becomes the majority in the House, it is expected that the functioning of President Biden’s affairs of state will be hampered by intense scrutiny and reversal of existing government policies.

Consequently, the Biden administration is expected to take a break.

On the other hand, former President Donald Trump, who has ignited criticism of the regime by making re-election a standard fact, should inevitably take a political blow.

Specifically, it is an analysis that the Trump side will lose power as many Republican candidates vying for “pro-Trump” tendencies are suffering one after another.

Indeed, ninth local time, NBC said, “Two people who are expected to face each other again in the 2024 presidential election have started a search battle.”

At the beginning of the 7th, the day before the mid-term elections, Trump expressed his willingness to run for president again, saying: “On Tuesday the 15th I will make a very important announcement”.

South Korean experts predicted that the mid-term election results would have little effect on the Biden administration’s policy in North Korea.

This means that there is no significant difference between the ruling party, the Democratic Party, and the opposition party, the Republican Party, on East Asian politics. US policy towards North Korea is “unconditional dialogue”, which North Korea does not accept.

Park Hyung-joong, researcher emeritus at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told the BBC: “Fundamentally, Republicans and Democrats are very concerned about North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. There won’t be any,” he analyzed.

In particular, he said: “Since former President Trump’s Republican Party has not performed well, his chances of re-election have diminished so much,” he said.

From President Kim Jong-un’s point of view, he would have expected a situation similar to that of 2018, when there was a warm wind between North Korea and the United States.

The mid-term elections in the United States are assessed as a “preparatory battle” for the presidential election two years later.

“No matter who the next president is, North Korea will raise its nuclear and missile technology to the highest level until the next presidential election,” Park said. There is a good chance they have it. “

“This time North Korea has not pushed the button for the seventh nuclear test, but it will always be clear,” he said.

He also said that the United States expects all of this and is preparing.

North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) shortly after the end of the US mid-term elections on 9 (local time).

The United States immediately condemned him. “We want dialogue with North Korea, but North Korea rejects it,” he said.

The assessment that the US mid-term election results are more likely to have a direct impact on the regional situation is also favorable.

The US-China conflict will inevitably escalate if the US focuses more on defense and diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region.

James Kim, head of the regional research center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, explained: “The current US-China-Mirror structure is unlikely to change in the next two years, that is, until the next US presidential election.”

This is because the US defense budget, which is currently dispersed in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, is likely to be concentrated in the Indo-Pacific region in the future, so there is a sufficient chance of an escalation of tensions in the region depending on the response of China.

Center director Kim stressed that if the US-China conflict accelerates further, the time may come when South Korea will have to make a strategic choice.

An embarrassing situation such as when the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in August, could happen again, and if cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan is strengthened in a situation where the current government policy on China is not as clear as it is now, what kind of impact will it have on Korea-China relations? Not sure if it will be called.

At that time, President Pelosi came to Korea after visiting Taiwan but did not meet with President Yoon Seok-yeol. In addition, there was also criticism for “neglecting protocol” when entering the country without a Korean government official. President Pelosi is considered to be the third largest person on the power rankings in the United States.

Center director Kim said: “I think Korea should get together a little bit faster than being relaxed between the US and China. You have to think about it,” he suggested.

Researcher Park Hyung-joong also assessed that “the most important political target for the United States is China”.

He continued: “It can influence North Korea through China’s response to US policy towards China in the future, and if so, it will also affect North Korea’s foreign policy.”

Furthermore, he added that relations between North Korea and China will become closer if US-China competition intensifies.