Michelle O’Neill He was 21 years old when the Good Friday agreement was signed in 1998, ending the bloody conflict between Catholics and Protestants. His plan was to work as an accountant to raise his daughter, whom he had had. at only 16 years old. But the signing of peace changed everything. He joined Sinn Féin, then the political arm of the IRA, a terrorist group with which practically his entire family had links, starting with his father, who was imprisoned for a while for it.
There was nothing to predict then that the training could reach to the highest position at the Stormont assembly. But O’Neill makes history this Saturday.
For the first time Since the partition of the island 103 years ago, the Northern Irish will have a woman republican, nationalist and catholic leading the government of the British province, which Brexit has left with a different status to the rest of the United Kingdom.
He Ourselves achieved an unprecedented victory in the regional elections in May 2022. The Good Friday Agreement obliges Catholics and Protestants to govern in coalition. But the DUP refused to take their positions in protest at the new customs controls that leave the region aligned with community regulations in order to protect the single market.
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The pact closed this week between the unionists and Rishi Sunak’s central government has made it possible to end two years of political paralysis and hold an extraordinary session in Stormont this Saturday to make O’Neill chief minister. For all practical purposes, she will have the same powers as Deputy Chief Minister Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the DUP. All in all, it is a tremendously symbolic appointment.
Unionists say they have secured guarantees to protect the region’s constitutional status within the United Kingdom. However, Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald has already warned that the reunification of the island of Ireland “it is within our reach.” The historical objective of the nationalists has always been the holding of a referendum. But now more attention is paid to them than ever. Not only have they made history in Northern Ireland, but they are also leading the polls for the general elections scheduled for 2025 in the Republic of Ireland, where they already broke out with force in 2020ending the bipartisanship that had dominated during the last century.
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Sinn Féin talks about holding a plebiscite by 2030. However, analysts consider it an unlikely option in the short term.. “Under the Good Friday Agreement, the consultation should be held if it seems likely that a majority of people in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are in favor of reunification,” says Joël Reland, of the think tank Uk in Changing Europe.
“Most polls suggest that around a third of the electorate is currently in favor of Irish unity, although the number has increased in recent years. This is partly due to a younger generation of people whose political identity is not so strongly linked to their religion and, therefore, can support “Irish unity despite being from a Protestant family”points out to El Confidencial.
However, the analyst warns that if the Belfast Assembly fails to have a long period of stability “this is likely to galvanize some more moderate voters—who may be undecided on the issue – to support Irish unity, simply because Northern Ireland is failing to function as a political entity” a functioning Assembly in Northern Ireland is in the interests of those who want it to continue being part of the United Kingdom”, hue.
Most polls suggest that around a third of the electorate is currently in favor of Irish unity
The truth is that the nationalist rise Both the north and the south of the island are not linked to their referendum promise. In BelfastSinn Féin has been able to take advantage of the wear and tear suffered by the DUP due to Brexit, internal divisions and corruption scandals.
Sinn Féin became the most voted party in the last regional elections of 2022, but it was not because will increase the number of seats won, but because the DUP unionists lost seats. However, the main protagonists were those of the Alianza Party [que pretende superar la diferencia entre las comunidades católica y protestante para hacer de puente entre ambas].
In it last census published in 2022, Catholics surpassed Protestants for the first time in history (45.7% compared to 43.5%). Something really significant. But the proportion of the population that describes itself as neither Protestant nor Catholic has been increasing. In 1991, only 3.7% said they had no religion. Now it is 17.4%.
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For its part, in the Republic of Ireland, the key to Sinn Féin’s popularity lies not in its promise of a plebiscite, but in its leftist rhetoric and populist with promises of millions of euros in social aid payments, affordable housing and “fair” taxes with increases for people with higher incomes.
In short, it has successfully become the formation of the protest vote which counts, above all, with the support of the youngestthe same ones who see the links from the beginning of the formation with the IRA terrorists as something of the past and now feel attracted by its broad public housing programin a country where rents are at their highest peaks.
For the DUP the nationalist rise is difficult to accommodate. The party’s leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, promised his supporters that he would not end his boycott of the Belfast Executive until he removed the Irish Sea border. And no matter how much he now says that he has achieved it with the new pact closed with the central government, the truth is that the British province It continues to have a different status to the rest of the United Kingdom.
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The border between the Republic of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland—the only land border that now exists between the United Kingdom and the bloc, along with Gibraltar, was always the main challenge in the arduous and endless European divorce negotiations. On the one hand, the Good Friday Agreement of 1998 had to be respected, which determines that there can be no hard border on the island. But, on the other hand, the single market had to be protected and products arriving in Northern Ireland from Great Britain should be prevented. will not enter the Republic of Ireland (EU member).
The solution was to leave the British province of Northern Ireland aligned with the United Kingdom, but at the same time within the community regulatory orbit. But that forced us to do customs controls to the products that were sent from Scotland, England or Wales to Belfast, something that terrified the DUP.
Some of these barriers were reduced by the Windsor framethe agreement reached by the EU and Rishi Sunak in 2023. The DUP refused to approve it. But now the pact that the leader of the Northern Irish unionists has closed with London is more of the same. It is noted that Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom. But the changes They are just nuances. As an example, the “green route” established by the Windsor Framework for products that did not have to pass checks is now called the “UK internal market route”.
London is also contemplating changes so that any new EU legislation does not necessarily apply automatically in Northern Ireland. It includes new legislation that would explicitly prohibit Northern Ireland from being excluded from the benefits of any future international treaty signed by London. And it is committed to never putting up barriers to the entry of products from Northern Ireland into Great Britain. But neither Westminster nor Belfast will be able to heal the fissures of Brexit.
The hardline DUP accuses its leader of treason, as does radical activist Jamie Bryson, who has contacts with unionist paramilitaries who retain weapons and thousands, although he denies this. Bryson wields more influence than many politicians due to his social media following and headline-grabbing tricks. The point is that his criticism of the DUP leader is shared by many within the party: more than 40% of ranks oppose resuming Stormont.
However, Donaldson had more and more pressure to form a Government. An unprecedented strike this month by 150,000 public sector workers closed schools and paralyzed public transportation. The health service is in a worse state than anywhere else in the UK.
In Ireland, Sinn Féin’s popularity lies not in its promise of a plebiscite, but in its leftist and populist rhetoric
The lack of government It has excluded Northern Ireland from funding that the rest of the UK has had access to, and many public sector workers have missed out on pay rises granted elsewhere.
Belfast will now receive an additional £3.3bn from Westminster. That should help improve public services, while the private sector could enjoy a considerable boom thanks to companies keen to take advantage of a deal that gives Northern Ireland only slightly restricted access to both the UK and the EU.
Used well, it is an exceptionality that can come out very profitable. But we have to see if politicians put stability before partisan interests.
2024-02-03 05:05:34
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