Marine Le Pen is not “Emmanuel Macron’s HR director”, as she declared this Sunday from Hénin-Beaumont, which allows her to affirm that she did not make a “deal” with the President of the Republic on the choice of Michel Barnier, his fifth Prime Minister since 2017. She had nonetheless vetoed the appointment of Xavier Bertrand and holds, with her 126 deputies of the National Rally (RN) and the 16 of Eric Ciotti, the key to his dismissal.
Appointed last Thursday after two months of upheavals at the Élysée, the new Prime Minister is “under surveillance” by the RN, which did not fail to remind him of this several times over the weekend. “From this day on, Mr. Barnier is a Prime Minister under surveillance,” Jordan Bardella was the first to declare from the Châlons-en-Champagne fair. “We want there to be a government, and this government will obviously be under surveillance. We have set our demands and we will not change them,” continued Marine Le Pen in the columns of “La Tribune Dimanche.”
The RN is ready to dance the waltz with Michel Barnier, while constantly waving the prospect of joining forces with the left to vote for a motion of censure against his future government. The only certainty that the new Prime Minister enjoys is that he will not be censured immediately, at the opening of the next parliamentary session (early October, if there is no extraordinary session). Now the pressure is on, the RN is impatiently awaiting his general policy speech and promises not to give him a “carte blanche”. “We will not give carte blanche. Let things be very clear here again: if over the weeks, the French people were to be forgotten or mistreated again, we will not hesitate to censure the government,” added the leader of the RN deputies from Hénin-Beaumont.
RN priorities
The RN reminded the new tenant of Matignon of some of its priorities. In addition to their usual demands on immigration, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella returned to the fray this weekend on proportional representation – for Marine Le Pen, it is “obvious” that there will be new legislative elections in a year – or the use of a referendum. As for the budget or pension reform, which Michel Barnier promised to “improve” last Friday on TF1, the RN confirms that these will be the two burning issues of the new school year.
Like the left, with whom it is in the majority at the Palais-Bourbon, Jordan Bardella’s party is in favor of repealing the pension reform voted in 2023. On the budget, the savings that the executive will have to make seem difficult to reconcile with the RN’s desire not to see the French “mistreated”. In a few weeks, the RN will recall its “red lines”, Marine Le Pen declared Sunday in front of her supporters.
To say the least, Michel Barnier finds himself in a complex situation. The left remains firmly opposed to his nomination and is still campaigning to see its candidate, Lucie Castets, at Matignon. As Manuel Bompard recalled on Sunday, it also intends to maintain the pressure through three means – the immediate filing of a motion of censure, mobilization in the streets and the launch of impeachment proceedings against Emmanuel Macron. However, its first attempt to mobilize the French in the streets on Saturday ended in failure (110,000 demonstrators in France, including 26,000 in Paris, according to the Ministry of the Interior).
Barnier at the return of the Renaissance deputies?
Renaissance, the presidential party, displays a certain distance. The reception of the new Prime Minister was cool on the left wing, more enthusiastic on the right wing, and circumspect in the soft underbelly of the 99 Macronist deputies. Michel Barnier’s positions during the Republican primary for the 2022 presidential election are not going down well with some Ensemble pour la République (EPR, ex-Renaissance) deputies. There will be “neither desire to block nor unconditional support”, assured Gabriel Attal, now 100% boss of the deputies.
Thus, Michel Barnier’s participation next Tuesday in the parliamentary return of the EPR deputies was not confirmed Sunday at the end of the day. Symbolically, the message is clear as the participation of a Prime Minister in the parliamentary return of the main group on which he will have to rely is a classic. “Things are moving forward, being built little by little, and nothing has been confirmed to date,” the entourage of the new Prime Minister asserted Sunday. “Michel Barnier will meet the deputies of the group, but he is looking for the best format with Gabriel Attal. It could be a meeting later in the week,” confirmed the entourage of the former Prime Minister.
First trip to the hospital
On the other hand, Michel Barnier can congratulate himself on having received a warmer welcome from Horizons, Edouard Philippe’s party. His offensive in view of the 2027 presidential election (he declared himself a candidate to everyone’s surprise last week) surprised everyone and does not speak for the cohesion of the former majority. At the Modem, the reception was also timid – the party being more in favor of the nomination of Bernard Cazeneuve -, but François Bayrou gave Michel Barnier more frank support on RTL on Sunday. “I will do everything I can to make it work,” he declared. Finally, only Les Républicains (LR) do not hide their satisfaction, finding themselves with a Prime Minister from their ranks while counting only 47 deputies.
For his part, Michel Barnier is finding his feet at Matignon – he made his first trip to Necker Hospital on Saturday – and is holding consultations with the political forces of the “central bloc” with a view to forming his government. After seeing Gabriel Attal on Friday, the day after their transfer of power, he successively met with the leaders of LR, those of Horizons, and François Bayrou on Sunday afternoon. Neither Matignon nor the Elysée are risking the slightest prediction on the date of the announcement of the next government team, which should give pride of place to the right and the former majority. The psychodrama of the Prime Minister’s appointment has passed by there.
