Mexico is grappling with an unprecedented surge in violence,a crisis that extends far beyond its borders and has important implications for the United States. The daily toll of murders, kidnappings, and displacement paints a grim picture, with over 30,000 homicides annually. This isn’t just internal strife; the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) ranks Mexico as the fourth most conflict-ridden nation globally in 2024, trailing only Palestine, Burma, and Syria.
ACLED’s report highlights the severity of the situation. “The most violent places are experiencing very different types of conflict: from bombing campaigns in the Middle East, collective violence in India or a civil war between cartels in Mexico,” the institution states. The sheer scale of violence is staggering, with ACLED recording 200,000 violent incidents in 2024—double the number in 2020 and a 25% increase from 2023. This translates to one in eight people worldwide facing conflict, affecting 50 countries.
The impact on Mexican citizens is devastating. ACLED identifies mexico as the second most dangerous country for civilians (after palestine), the fourth most fragmented in terms of violent groups, and the seventh deadliest (Ukraine being the deadliest). specific examples cited include a drone attack by La Familia Michoacana resulting in 30 deaths in guerrero,over 4,000 displaced people in Chiapas,and rampant kidnappings in Sinaloa. The June 2024 elections, according to ACLED, took place “amid an escalation of violence throughout the country, with the electoral process itself marred by unprecedented levels of violence.”
The escalating violence is fueled by the fragmentation of the Sinaloa Cartel and its ongoing battles with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), along with other local criminal groups. This internal conflict has led to an 18% increase in fatalities from clashes between armed groups in just one year, according to ACLED. The expansion of conflict zones is also alarming,with violence exceeding 2023 levels in at least 14 of Mexico’s 32 states.
Security analyst Carlos Pérez Ricart offers a nuanced perspective: “The Mexican case is very difficult to define, it is an unusual case. For international organizations, which try to compare between countries, it represents a methodological and theoretical challenge,” he explains. “The concept of cartel civil war is an almost failed attempt to describe a reality that does not exist in another part of the world, an attempt to bring theory closer to a complex reality.” However, he acknowledges the significance of ACLED’s findings, stating, “The first thing is to…” (The quote is incomplete in the source material).
The escalating violence in Mexico has direct consequences for the United States. The resulting mass migration, as reported by Reuters, is placing immense strain on US border resources and social services.The flow of illegal drugs and weapons across the border also remains a significant concern. Understanding the complexities of this crisis is crucial for developing effective strategies to address both the immediate humanitarian challenges and the long-term security implications for both nations.
Mexico’s Violence Set to Escalate in 2025,Experts Warn
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A new report paints a grim picture for Mexico’s future,predicting a significant increase in violence in 2025. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a leading conflict research organization, points to a confluence of factors driving this alarming forecast, including escalating cartel wars, upcoming judicial elections, and the potential impact of a changing political climate both domestically and in the United States.
The report highlights the fracturing of the Sinaloa Cartel, with internal disputes spreading violence across at least 10 states, extending the conflict into Chihuahua and Sonora. “The disagreements within the Sinaloa cartel…have altered criminal dynamics in other places and extended violence to Chihuahua and Sonora,” the ACLED report states. This internal strife is further elaborate by the rise of other powerful cartels, such as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
In Tabasco, a December 2023 split within the La Barredora criminal group has ignited fierce battles for control of lucrative migrant smuggling routes. These conflicts extend to clashes with the CJNG,and the report also notes territorial struggles between the CJNG and the Santa Rosa de Lima cartel over fuel theft in Guanajuato. A potential alliance between the CJNG and Los Chapitos, factions of the Sinaloa Cartel, to challenge Los Mayitos in Zacatecas is particularly concerning. “an alliance of this type could exacerbate violence in the territories internally disputed by the Sinaloa cartel and in the regions where the CJNG and the Sinaloa cartel are facing each other,” the report warns.
The upcoming June elections for judges add another layer of complexity. The report notes that this election “exposes candidates who may be more vulnerable to partisan or criminal influence,and incentivizes gangs to penetrate state institutions thru targeted attacks or co-option.” This concern is underscored by the report’s conclusion that “In the long term, increased criminal influence on judicial institutions could contribute to increased impunity.”
ACLED also focuses on the new security strategy under President Claudia Sheinbaum and Secretary Omar García Harfuch, as well as the potential impact of a more hardline American policy under a potential Donald Trump governance. “Sheinbaum, who took office in October 2024, faces a reshaping gang landscape and possibly greater violence in the coming year,” the report concludes.
The implications of this escalating violence extend beyond Mexico’s borders. The flow of drugs and weapons across the U.S.-Mexico border remains a significant concern for American national security. The instability in Mexico could lead to increased drug trafficking, human smuggling, and potential spillover effects into border communities.
The situation underscores the complex and interconnected nature of the challenges facing Mexico. Addressing the root causes of violence, strengthening judicial institutions, and fostering regional cooperation will be crucial in mitigating the predicted surge in violence in 2025.
Mexican cartel Violence Set to Surge in 2025: Experts Weigh In
Teh Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) has issued a stark warning about the escalating violence in Mexico. Their report predicts a serious surge in 2025, fueled by cartel infighting, political instability, and Trans-border concerns.
World-Today-News.com Senior Editor, Emily Carter spoke with Dr.
Guillermo Garcia, Professor of latin American Studies and Director of the Center for Mexican Studies at Georgetown University, to shed light on this complex and concerning situation.
Fragmentation of the Cartels
Emily Carter: Dr. garcia, the ACLED report highlights the fracturing of the Sinaloa Cartel as a major driver of the violence. Can you elaborate on this?
Dr. Guillermo Garcia: Absolutely. The Sinaloa Cartel, once a dominant force, is now fragmenting into factions, primarily due to internal power struggles. This fracturing has spread conflict across at least 10 states, reaching Chihuahua and Sonora.These internal disputes are being compounded by the rise of powerful rivals like the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, leading to intense territorial battles and increased civilian casualties.
Political Instability
Emily Carter: The report also mentions upcoming judicial elections as a contributing factor.
How are these elections possibly fueling the violence?
Dr. Guillermo Garcia:
The June elections present a window of vulnerability. Candidates may become targets for criminal groups seeking to influence the outcomes or gain control of key judicial institutions. We’ve seen instances of targeted attacks and co-option attempts in the past.This trend could intensify in the lead-up to the elections, further destabilizing the country.
Spillover Effect on the United States
Emily Carter:
The report highlights the potential spillover effects of this violence into the United States. Can
you discuss what those might entail?
Dr. Guillermo Garcia: The flow of drugs and weapons across the US-Mexico border remains a meaningful concern.
Escalating violence in Mexico could lead to increased drug trafficking, human smuggling, and potential
spillover violence into border communities. This poses a direct threat to US security and necessitates
a collaborative response from both governments.
Addressing the Crisis
Emily Carter: What steps can be taken to mitigate this predicted surge in violence?
Dr. Guillermo Garcia: Addressing the root causes of violence in Mexico is a multi-faceted challenge.Strengthening judicial institutions to resist criminal influence,dismantling corruption networks,and tackling the underlying socio-economic factors that contribute to violence are crucial steps.
International cooperation,especially with the United States,is essential in curbing the flow of weapons and addressing transnational crime. Most importantly,inclusive policies that promote economic possibility and social justice are paramount in fostering lasting peace and stability in Mexico.
