Mexico lives the worst crisis that has been confronted in several generations, by the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences on employment and production, and four months after the emergency was declared, “in terms of public health we have not yet hit bottom,” says the Jalisco Governor Enrique Alfaro Ramírez, who affirms that “although we have to continue with the process of economic reactivation, the first thing is the health and life of everyone”.
He warns that “the strategy failed from its design and implementation and, of course, from the way it wanted to impose an absolute truth from the Federation, without listening to the states.”
It maintains that “it is evident that the number of infections and deaths It would have been less, if at first we had taken steps to better prepare ourselves for this reactivation stage. ”
He says that “this is a reality that forces us to rethink the relationship between state governments and the Federation, because none will be alone, we will need the commitment and help of all to face the most difficult that is to come.”
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The current moment is one of uncertainty, and in Jalisco, with 80% of the economy reopened, “we have an emergency button with very punctual indicators, that if they are exceeded, we are ready to stop everything again, it would be the only measure that could truly cut the chain of infections ”, he indicates.
Alfaro Ramírez, militant of Citizen movement, In a telephone interview, he underlines that the General Health Council (CSG) “It has been an ornament, when by law it should have been the institutional axis of a strategy with unified criteria so that the country would have had only one direction”, but contrary to this, “each state scratched itself with its own nails.” Acting like this, “passed a very high bill to the country,” he says.
What to do to avoid reaching the forecast of 100,000 deaths by November 1, as the University of Washington warns?
“It is very difficult to foresee what will happen.” The Jalisco strategy was designed with specialists and appealing to citizen co-responsibility. Conacyt predicted the peak of the emergency on July 21 and the University of Guadalajara spoke of mid-October, so there is no official forecast at the health table that tells us when we can reach the most critical moment of the pandemic.
Our strategy sought that the rate of infections did not grow so fast and to gain time to prepare the hospital system, and the purpose was fulfilled, since the state has been reactivating for two months, the economy operates at 80%. The rate of infections stabilized, although we are at a point of high risk, despite the hospital occupancy rate for Covid patients being between 25% and 27%.
Is health federalism useless in the pandemic?
—The federalist model exposed its structural weaknesses in the pandemic. A centralist vision has contributed to this, which has been gaining strength in recent times in our country, and the case is the creation of the Insabi [Instituto de Salud para el Bienestar]. In the midst of all this debate, I feel more proud of having decided not to join Insabi, because that allowed us to have room for maneuver and autonomy to make decisions. The results speak for themselves that Jalisco took the right path.
Do you think that the General Health Council works?
-Of course not. It is an instance that has been adorned, that has not been in session as it should, that has not been considered the axis of the public health strategy.
Would we have another song if the council had worked?
—The way of approaching the strategy would have been different, because the most serious mistakes were made at the beginning, when the voices raised from the local level were ignored, when the opinions of specialists throughout the country were undervalued.
If the Health Council had worked, it seems to me that solid strategies would be developed, especially with unified criteria so that the country would have had the same direction, a work route. What happened was that each state defined its path; each entity scratched its nails, and although some did well, this plan in the end passed a very high bill to the country. This figure should have been the articulating axis of all institutional efforts.
Can Conago influence?
-Little bit. The Conago [Conferencia Nacional de Gobernadores] He is an exhausted figure, where partisan agendas outweigh the spirits to defend state agendas, which was the founding purpose. What works are the regional blocks that some leaders have been able to promote.
The new normal has been the phase with the highest number of infections and deaths, was that to be expected or are we in the presence of one of the most serious errors in the country’s history?
—The revival of the economy could not wait, it seems that the most serious mistakes were made at the beginning of the strategy, not necessarily in the phase of the new normality. I believe that the federal plan was poorly designed from the beginning and the need to revive the economy was urgent.
If we had taken steps earlier to prepare ourselves better, the number of infections and deaths would have been less, it is evident.
What errors were there at the beginning?
—Minimize the severity of the pandemic, lengthen the decisions that should have been made from the start. Inexplicably, having denied the importance of wearing a mask, valuable days were lost, for example, to suspend classes or massive events, not having made hard decisions in the control of our borders. To continue sending the message during the first days of the pandemic that nothing was happening and that we could continue to go out, wanting to ignore, I insist, the voices of the states to try to impose an agenda built on the occurrences of a single person. I could point out many more mistakes, but overall I think the strategy collapsed, even before it started.
How does Jalisco cover the cost of the health emergency and the economic reactivation stage?
—With a huge budget effort. The cost of the health emergency so far is around 5,600 million pesos, covered with our resources, without having received any money from the Federation. We hired a loan, we generated 2 billion pesos with an enormous austerity effort, to reorient public spending.
The next stage, the economic reactivation, requires much greater effort and commitment, and it is imperative to have the support of the Federation. The President on his visit to Jalisco promised that this would be the case. We agreed to a meeting within 10 days to land a specific route on this matter.
Not contracting debt is justified by the federal government so as not to fall into situations like Fobaproa. Do you share this expression?
-Not. State governments can act responsibly and use debt as a lever for the reactivation of the economy, financing, it is not an issue that has to be seen as something bad.
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Where is Jalisco, the country, the recession? Are these problems really ending in the short term? Your forecasts?
-Definitely not. We are experiencing the worst crisis that several generations of Mexicans have faced, a time when in public health we have not yet hit bottom. These are very difficult times in which we have to act with great care, because although we have to continue with the reactivation process, the measures that we must take must always be thought that the health and life of all come first.
In Jalisco, because we do not have a predictable, reliable scenario, what we decide to do is establish what we call an emergency button. We are going to continue with our economic recovery, but we have very specific indicators, that if they are exceeded, we are ready to stop everything again, understanding that this would be a measure that could cut the chain of infections.
We are in a moment of great uncertainty, I believe that the worst of the emergency has not come and we are just beginning to perceive the effects of the economic crisis that we are going to experience in the coming months. I hope I’m wrong, but I think it will be a crisis that we will have to dominate for the next few years.
So, difficult times are coming. This is a reality that forces us to rethink, among many other things, the relationship between state governments and the Federation, because no one will be alone, we will need the commitment and help of all to face the most difficult that is to come.
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