Mexican economy will resume growth, cyclical indicators report

Mexico City. After the stagnation that was recorded at the end of last year and the beginning of 2024, the Mexican economy will resume moderate growth for the second half of the year, suggests the Composite Indicator System: coincident and leading, calculated by Inegi.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) specified that the leading indicator, which suggests the behavior of the economy in the short term, was positioned above its long-term trend, presenting a value of 100.6 points in February, which represented an advance of 0.15 points compared to January, its fourth consecutive advance.

The advance of said indicator was a consequence of the advance of business confidence, the right time to invest (0.05 points); the advance of the Price and Quotation Index (IPC), which represents a sample of the shares listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (0.07 units); as well as the US S&P 500 stock index (0.30 points) and the employment trend in manufacturing (0.01 points), suggest a positive behavior of the economy in the coming months.

However, the contraction behavior of the exchange rate of 0.05 points, the fourth consecutive downward reading, and the interest rate, with a decrease of 0.09 points, the tenth in a row, inhibit a more dynamic behavior of the economy in your growth path.

For its part, the coincident indicator, which reflects the behavior of the current economy, was above its long-term trend, registering a value of 100.4 points in January and a decrease of 0.10 points with respect to the previous month. six consecutive decline readings, showing an exhaustion of the economy in late 2023 and early this year.

With the new information, the coincident indicator maintained the contraction trend reported in recent months.

The result of the coincidence was due to the negative performance of four of the six components that comprise it. The favorable performance of the urban unemployment rate indicator and total imports could not compensate for the contraction of the indicator.

The Global Indicator of Economic Activity (Igae), with a drop of 0.16 points, the fourth consecutive; insured permanent workers in the IMSS (0.01 points) and supply income (0.18 points) and industrial activity 0.20 points that fell, support the current weakness of the national economy.