Mexican economy will continue with less dynamism: Inegi

Mexico City. The Mexican economy has slowed down and is expected to continue to show less dynamism towards the end of the year, suggests the Composite Indicator System: coincident and leading, calculated by Inegi.

The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) stated that the leading indicator, which suggests the behavior of the economy in the short term, was positioned above its long-term trend, presenting a value of 100.4 points in July, which represented a fall of 0.06 points compared to June, its third consecutive fall.

The fall in this indicator was a consequence of the decline in three of its six components, among which the performance of the Price and Quotation Index (IPC) stands out, which represents a sample of the shares listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange (0.12 units).

The slowdown in the national economy is also due to the effects of the interest rate, with a decrease of 0.11 points; business confidence, a good time to invest (0.11 points).

However, the rise in the US S&P 500 stock index (0.13 points), the employment trend in manufacturing (0.02 points) and the exchange rate of 0.25 points suggest a moderate performance of the economy in the coming months.

The coincident indicator, which reflects the current performance of the economy, was above its long-term trend, registering a value of 100.1 points in June and a decrease of 0.04 points compared to the previous month, 11 consecutive readings of declines, which showed an exhaustion of the economy at the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024.

With the new information, the coincident indicator maintained the contraction trend reported in recent months.

The coincident result was due to the negative performance of four of the six components that comprise it. The negative performance of the global indicator of economic activity (Igae), which showed no growth; permanent workers insured in the IMSS (0.02 points); income from supplies (0.09 points); and total imports (0.03 points), supported the current weakness of the national economy.

Meanwhile, industrial activity rose 0.05 points and the urban unemployment rate increased 0.12 points.

Thus, the declines in the latest readings of the coincident and leading indicators of the Cyclical Indicator System confirm the slowdown of the Mexican economy.