On Sunday, the first round of internal party elections will be held in PASoK to elect a new leadership and as shown by a new poll by Metron Analysis that was presented on Friday evening (4/10) on the main news bulletin of MEGA, Nikos Androulakis, Pavlos Geroulanos, Haris Doukas, Anna Diamantopoulou, Michalis Katrinis and Nadia Giannakopoulou will fight a battle of great political interest.
The “key” to the outcome of the result and the two contenders for the leadership that will duel in the second round seems to be the participation and whether it will move among the narrow core of PaSoK voters or whether it will expand to other publics.
How is the participation in the electoral battle in PASOK shaped
In terms of participation in this poll, there is a clear increase in interest, as 17.3% say they will definitely or probably go, which means higher participation than in 2021. Obviously the highest percentage is among those who identify themselves as center-left.
However, the political origin of those who declare that they intend to participate in the election process is also of interest. 47% are PASOK voters, 18% are ND voters, 8% SYRIZA voters, 5% from the KKE and a corresponding percentage from the Hellenic Solution. This means a special interest in the process, but at the same time it creates a landscape where the election will not be decided only among the “hard core” of the party’s voters.
The research methodology
In order for Metron Analysis to see the trends that are forming it uses three reference sets. The limits of PASOK’s electoral influence, the intention to vote for PASOK and the undecideds of PASOK and finally those who declare that they will definitely go to vote.
What is the popularity of the candidates
In terms of the popularity of the candidates, i.e. the positive opinions (which do not automatically translate into votes), the most popular seems to be Pavlos Geroulanos, who leads both in the total potential influence of PASOK and in those who will definitely go to vote , while Nikos Androulakis is more popular among PASOK voters. It is interesting that Anna Diamantopoulou has a higher popularity than Haris Doukas in all categories and that this popularity appears relatively upward
Who do they prefer as president of PASOK?
In the question of who they prefer as president of PASOK, we get an idea of how they see the eventual vote in the first round. Nikos Androulakis leads in all categories, with the largest lead among voters. Anna Diamantopoulou comes second in overall influence and among those who will definitely go, but Haris Doukas is higher than Anna Diamantopoulou among PASOK voters. Pavlos Geroulanos, despite his popularity, is consistently fourth.
Regarding these figures, there are no big differences from previous measurements. It remains to be seen if this poll record of Anna Diamantopoulos will finally be reflected in the ballot box of the first round, overturning the assessment that it will be Haris Doukas who will face Nikos Androulakis in the second round.
The scenarios of the second round
Given that we are going to a second round, it is of particular interest to see how the possible scenarios shape up. Nikos Androulakis appears to be beating all opponents in the second round in all potential constituencies, but he would tie in the wider body and lose in the body of those who will definitely go to vote. The battle between Haris Doukas and Anna Diamantopoulou would be lopsided, as he would lose to her in the general body and in the body of those who would certainly vote, while he would win in the body of PASOK voters. Pavlos Geroulanos would beat Haris Doukas and Anna Diamantopoulou in all possible constituencies, except the general one where Diamantopoulou would win.
Androulaki’s victory performance
As for the victory performance, Nikos Androulakis leads in all potential electoral bodies, with Haris Doukas a distant second and Anna Diamantopoulou third
A lead but not a sure victory for Nikos Androulakis
All this points to a clear lead for Nikos Androulakis who seems that even with difficulty he could win in all possible scenarios of the second round. Obviously, a lot will be decided by the composition of the electoral body both in the first round, and especially in the second.
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