In a peculiar political situation, Mr Kyriakos Mitsotakis is in front of an unprecedented condition for the data of his prime ministerial tenure so far: Despite the fact that he and the ND remain dominant, the Prime Minister is called upon to reverse the climate, as reflected in the new opinion polls, which present quite problematic data for the government.
This is the first and main concern of Megaros Maximos at the start of the new political period, immediately after the announcements and announcements of the weekend, in the context of this year’s TIF.
The most important polling finding is formed by the evaluations of the government’s work and by the indicators of optimism, which have fallen to the levels of February 2023, when the credibility of the government had reached its lowest points, as a result of the Tempe disaster.
Today, a percentage of more than 63% estimates that things in the country are developing quite or very badly, while a historically low 10% considers that the course is quite or very positive (MRB survey).
At the core of this finding is the basic condition, which Kyriakos Mitsotakis and the staff of Megaros Maximos are called upon to overturn or mitigate in the immediate future. At the same time, it is pointed out by the analysts that the extremely low percentage of those who appear satisfied is sufficient to shape the fictitious image of general prosperity, due to the fullness of holiday destinations, travel media or catering and entertainment centers, facts that are often cited by government officials.
According to the general admission of researchers and analysts, the poll condition for the government is now defined by the result of the European elections. Today, the percentage of the ND in the intention to vote varies between 21% and 25%, even without strengthening the two main opposition parties, SYRIZA and PaSoK, and with the undecided vote at 20%. Which, among other things, portends that, once the government is stuck there, it is rather uncertain that a spectacular reversal like that of the national elections of 2023 will be possible, where despite the blows of the previous period, the percentages of the ND soared above 40% and they gave her self-reliance.
Attention to the PASoK
Under these conditions, the attention of the government staff is basically focused on the developments in the PASOK, awaiting the emergence of a new leadership. As political executives point out, the period after the election of a new president in the party will be perhaps the most interesting of the last few years, for obvious reasons, but without a discounted development.
Then it will be seen if the PASOK will manage to develop a new dynamic so that, given the poll precipitation of SYRIZA, it will become a dominant opposition force and start absorbing percentages of voters from the pool of abstention or the current, extremely high undecided vote, as long as repatriate groups of centrist voters, who had turned to ND and SYRIZA in recent years.
The time horizon
In this light, the government’s retrenchment operation also has a relatively limited time horizon.
Political officials estimate that the reshaping of political associations will coincide with a period in which the main problems, according to the citizens’ assessment in opinion polls, will not have been solved. They are still dominated by accuracy, Health and Education, despite the constant communication efforts of the government staff to present a different image.
Elements of anti-systemicism
The individual elements of the opinion polls evaluated by some government officials are the strengthening of Freedom Sailing and Voice of Reason, at levels much higher than their recent electoral percentage and with obvious characteristics of reaction and creeping anti-systemicism, which refers to the period of the “square” .
The specific findings, combined with the recent, particularly high abstention in the European elections and the entrenchment of the opposition, are estimated as parameters of a fluidity in the political scene, with currently unknown side effects.
Low expectations
The alarming element for the government of its apparent fixation on the current poll rates, at a level of around 25%, coincides with the relatively low rates of expectations for the work produced, but also with the corresponding positive evaluations for the measures that are announced and are taken.
Under these circumstances and with the political sovereignty of the ND being undermined, even if it is not threatened at the moment, the project of the so-called government restart is evaluated in very different terms and nevertheless shows significant difficulties and looks like an hour.
It is pointed out, among other things, to the close government staff, that the citizens’ dissatisfaction, pessimism and low expectations recorded in the opinion polls are the dominant elements that should be taken into account in the immediate period ahead.
Reaction margins
As emphasized by experienced politicians, there is time for a political reaction. However, it is neither unlimited, nor does it have prescribed results.
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