Trzaskowski Leads Polish Presidential Poll, Mentzen’s Surge Shakes Up Race
Table of Contents
march 12, 2025
The upcoming Polish presidential election is witnessing a notable shift in voter preferences, according to a new poll. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Civic Coalition candidate, currently leads the pack. However, the real story is the considerable gain in support for Sławomir mentzen, a candidate representing the confederation party. This surge is injecting new uncertainty into the race.
The poll, conducted by the Institute of Research on behalf of “Super Express,” surveyed 1,015 adult Poles between March 7-9, 2025. The Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing (CAWI) method was used. The results suggest a possibly tight contest as the election approaches, challenging previously held assumptions about the likely outcome.
Trzaskowski Holds Lead, Mentzen Closes the Gap
Rafał Trzaskowski is currently in the lead, with 37% of respondents indicating they intend to vote for him in the first round. While this establishes him as the frontrunner, the rapid ascent of Sławomir Mentzen signals a notable change in the Polish political landscape. Mentzen’s growing popularity is forcing analysts to reassess their predictions for the election.
Mentzen has garnered significant attention from the electorate,securing 22% of the vote in the poll. This places him in second position, a remarkable achievement that highlights the increasing appeal of his political platform.His strong showing suggests a segment of the population is looking for alternatives to the established political order.
Karol Nawrocki, supported by the PiS party, trails Mentzen closely with 21% of the vote. the narrow margin separating these two candidates indicates a highly competitive battle for second place. Both candidates are vying to position themselves as the primary challenger to Trzaskowski’s lead, setting the stage for intense campaigning in the coming weeks.
Other Candidates and the Broader Political Spectrum
Beyond the top three contenders, the poll provides insights into the support levels for other candidates in the race. Szymon Hołownia, the Sejm Marshal, receives 8% of the vote, indicating a moderate level of support among voters. While not a frontrunner, Hołownia’s support base could play a crucial role in a close election.
Magdalena Biejat, the left candidate, and Grzegorz Braun, a Member of the European Parliament (MEP), both receive 3% of the vote. Adrian Zandberg,representing the Party,and journalist Krzysztof Stanowski each secure 2% of the vote. This distribution highlights the diverse range of political options available to polish voters, reflecting a complex and multifaceted political landscape.
Notably, 2% of respondents expressed their intention to vote for a candidate not specifically mentioned in the poll. This suggests the presence of other contenders or a degree of undecidedness among a segment of the electorate. These undecided voters could prove to be a decisive factor in the final outcome of the election.
Implications and Future Outlook for the Polish Election
The poll results offer valuable insights into the current dynamics of the Polish presidential election. While Rafał Trzaskowski maintains a lead, the rise of Sławomir Mentzen as a strong contender introduces a new element of uncertainty to the race. The close competition between Mentzen and Karol Nawrocki further underscores the unpredictable nature of the election outcome.
As the election draws nearer, it remains to be seen how these trends will evolve and whether other candidates will gain momentum. The shifting voter preferences revealed in the poll suggest that the race is far from settled. The coming weeks will be crucial in shaping the final outcome, with campaign strategies and public debates likely to play a significant role in influencing voter decisions.
Poland’s presidential Race: A Tight Contest with Unexpected Twists
is the seemingly stable Polish political landscape about to undergo a seismic shift? Recent polling data suggests a thrilling presidential race with surprising contenders vying for power.
Interviewer: Dr. Anna Kowalska, a leading expert in Polish politics and author of “Evolving Power Dynamics in Central Europe,” welcome to World-Today-News.com. The recent poll showing Rafał Trzaskowski leading, but with Sławomir Mentzen making significant gains, has many wondering about the future of Polish politics. Could you shed some light on this surprising advancement?
Dr. Kowalska: Thank you for having me. the current Polish presidential race is indeed interesting, characterized by both expected frontrunners and unexpected challenges to the established political order. While Trzaskowski’s lead reflects his established presence within the Civic Coalition and his familiarity to Polish voters, Mentzen’s surge underscores a significant realignment within the electorate. This shift speaks to a growing appetite for alternatives to traditional political platforms and a desire for fresh approaches to governance. Understanding this dynamic is key to comprehending the evolving Polish political landscape.
Interviewer: Mentzen’s rise is undeniably the biggest talking point. What factors contribute to his ample increase in support? Is this a temporary surge, or does it reflect a deeper, long-term trend?
Dr. Kowalska: Mentzen’s success is multifaceted. His appeal likely stems from several interconnected factors: a strong anti-establishment message resonating with voters disillusioned by traditional parties, cleverly crafted campaigning that connects with specific demographics, and the triumphant leveraging of social media for reaching a broader electorate. Whether this represents a temporary wave or a more permanent shift in Polish political preferences remains to be seen. However, his strong performance suggests a growing segment of the population is actively seeking political alternatives. Analyzing his platform and comparing it to the historical context of similar populist movements in other Eastern European countries could provide insightful predictions.The appeal of outsider candidates,especially during periods of economic uncertainty or political discontent,often surpasses traditional party affiliations.
Interviewer: The poll also highlights a close race for second place between Mentzen and Karol Nawrocki. What implications does this have for the overall election?
Dr. Kowalska: The intense competition between Mentzen and Nawrocki for the second position is critically crucial. This race is essentially a battle for who will be the principal challenger to Trzaskowski in the second round. The outcome will considerably influence the overall tone and strategic focus of the final stretch of the presidential campaign. Given the relatively narrow margin between them, even small shifts in voter preference in the coming weeks could dramatically alter the race’s trajectory. we’re likely to see highly targeted campaigning from both sides focusing on crucial swing voter demographics.
Interviewer: Beyond the top three, how do the performances of other candidates such as Hołownia, Biejat, Braun, and Zandberg illuminate the broader political spectrum in Poland?
Dr. Kowalska: The presence of candidates like Hołownia, Biejat, and others, though with lower poll numbers, is significant. They represent a diverse array of political ideologies and represent option viewpoints to the top three contenders. The fact that these candidates maintain some level of support indicates a rich and complex political landscape where voter preferences span a broad spectrum of viewpoints. Analyzing their specific policy positions, their target demographic, and their overall campaign narrative will help better understand and segment the Polish electorate. Their performance provides valuable insights into the existing internal divisions and diverse political affiliations among Polish voters.
Interviewer: What key takeaways should we keep in mind about this election and its wider implications for Poland’s future?
Dr.Kowalska: hear are some key takeaways:
The rise of alternative candidates: The success of candidates like Mentzen signifies a growing trend of voters seeking alternatives to traditional political platforms.
Intense competition: The close race for second place emphasizes the highly dynamic and uncertain nature of the election.
Diversity of viewpoints: A range of candidates with diverse platforms reflects the multifaceted political landscape of Poland.
Unpredictability: It’s important to recognize the high degree of uncertainty inherent in the race; any slight shift in voter sentiment could drastically affect the outcome.
Interviewer: dr. Kowalska, thank you for your insightful analysis. This is a fascinating election, and your outlook is much appreciated.
Dr. Kowalska: My pleasure. I believe this election will reveal a lot about the changing priorities of Polish voters,offering significant insights into the direction of Polish politics for years to come.
what are your thoughts on this pivotal election? Share your predictions and analysis in the comments below!