On December 13, 2020, Mr. Anusorn Thamjai, former director of the Bank of Thailand and former dean of the Faculty of Economics, Rangsit University, discussed the second wave of COVID-19 impacts in Thailand. Because there is a good disease monitoring system to limit the spread of the disease. (Thailand ranked No. 151, the US ranked No. 1 and India ranked No. 2), but it affected revenue from the tourism sector and events. Various concerts Travel and tourism activities decelerated than previously expected. It is expected that income from tourism and shopping activities related to the New Year’s tourism have been lost at least. 14,100-16,920 Millions of baht at the end of this year, after two waves of Covid-19 outbreaks during the New Year festival last year, Thai tourist income was approximately 28.2 billion baht. Thais, especially Bangkok residents, have clearly reduced their spending budgets during the New Year. In Bangkok alone, about 30 billion baht has been spent on New Year’s Eve, well below the average for the past two decades.
“Authorities must take serious steps in secrecy of illegal immigration along the border, not quarantine. If it cannot be operated efficiently, it will affect the economy next year and the economic growth rate could be lower than 4%. The second major epidemic in many of Thailand’s major trading partners will affect Towards the Thai export sector at the end of the year continuing to the first quarter of next year “
Anusorn said the volatility of the world financial markets from a major correction of share prices, gold, oil and commodities prices will be greater later this year. Gold may return to another high, with a chance to test $ 2,000 an ounce during the first quarter next year. In the short term, next week, the price of gold could hit the $ 1,845-1,850 per ounce level. Expect the price of gold bullion, the domestic purchase price in the next week, will be in baht per baht. 26,150-26,600 Baht and the price of gold jewelry, the purchase price is at each baht 25,681-27,000 baht, gold prices have been lowered earlier after testing the level of 1,875 dollars per ounce. Spot gold has risen as investors move more into safe assets after the uncertainty and The US Congress delayed the issuance of a new round of stimulus measures. Concerns over the impact of Britain’s No Deal Brexit exit and signs of rising inflationary pressures on rising commodity prices.
The US dollar was also pressured by rising unemployment claims, retail sales, purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in both manufacturing and service sectors. Construction permits and new housing index are likely to come out in a direction that shows a slowdown in the economy at the end of the year compared to the third quarter. And must monitor movements from the Federal Reserve meeting The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan next week. And predicted that Central banks of the major countries will not yet have additional monetary easing measures. This is because the effect of early vaccination is how effective it is in stopping the epidemic in order to restore normal economic activity.
However, the US dollar should continue to depreciate against the Thai baht. The baht during the past month has strengthened almost 4% and is likely to test the level of 29.50 baht per dollar by the end of the year. As capital continues to flow into the stock market and bond markets. In the past month Foreign investors are in a net buy position of nearly 50 billion baht and nearly 20 billion in bond markets. In a short period of one month, short-term funds have already inflated nearly 70 billion. The end of the year and a profit-taking at the end of the year before the holidays to reduce investment risks. We would like to follow up the capital movement of foreign institutional investors as it will determine the direction of the Thai financial market.
“Such inflows affect the baht appreciation and it is difficult to use effective measures to extract the appreciation. Therefore, it is of the view that export operators have to take out risk insurance against fluctuations and the appreciation of the baht. The exporter should either enter into a dollar forward contract or do a forward, not necessarily having to do an option, which requires additional fees, although the option is more flexible than Forward in hedging against exchange rates. But because the direction of the baht is moving mainly in the direction of appreciation The opportunity to weaken is very small. Optionally, there is no need to use an option.Traders should open an account and deposit foreign currency, or trade or invest in local currencies to reduce the risk of currency fluctuations. Speculative short-term funds continue to flow into Asian financial markets, including Thailand. As a result, the baht and the regional currency continued to appreciate. Operators have to manage their own risks from currency fluctuations. Because the intervention of the baht by the authorities is more restrictive and difficult, respectively. “
Mr Anusorn proposed guidelines to the government and the National Bank in response to the economy in the last year that Connecting the economy and finance with foreign countries Connectivity is essential to improving competitiveness and helping to spread risks in the financial economy. The financial link will make the link of regional and sub-regional trade better. The Bank of Thailand has to reduce hidden costs and improve payment system efficiency. This gives people access to financial inclusion services while being protected as a user. Change the country’s savings model to long-term savings to better align with long-term investment programs that require long-term funding.
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