/ world today news/ Early parliamentary elections were held in the Netherlands on November 22. According to the results, first place was taken by the far-right, anti-immigrant Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders.
This 60-year-old parliamentarian has been a professional politician since the late 1980s and a party leader since the mid-2000s. But he has long been considered marginalized for his radical statements, which have been labeled populist or Islamophobic.
Wilders has called for a halt to the flow of migrants, compared the Koran to Mein Kampf, demanded the closure of all mosques and Islamic schools in the Netherlands and called the Muslim community in the Netherlands “scum”.
In the last “regular” election that took place recently in 2021, Wilders’ party came third. Then the extreme right received 10% of the vote with 17 parliamentary seats. Eurosceptic populists were clearly losing support – the result of Wilders’ allies turned out to be more modest than the previous election in 2017.
But now, after the extraordinary vote, the Freedom Party’s representation has doubled – 37 out of 150 seats in the parliament.
Why did Geert Wilders pinch his hand?
The reason for the extraordinary election campaign was more than significant – the collapse of the governing coalition. The disagreements led to the fact that on July 7 the head of the coalition, the right-wing liberal Mark Rutte (who had been prime minister since 2010) announced his resignation. And also for his reluctance to lead the list of his “People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy” in the elections and for leaving politics.
The reason for the discord was the question of what to do with the growing flow of migrants. The coalition partners did not have a common opinion and this played into the hands of the opposition, above all Geert Wilders.
Nevertheless, the result of the early vote was unexpected for many, including Wilders himself.
„I had to pinch my hand,” said the politician. Polls before the election gave him plus or minus 20 mandates.
In second place is the Green-Labor Union of Frans Timmermans. In fact, they garnered a significant portion of the leftist vote and managed to take only 25 seats. The former EU climate commissioner Timmermans has already said that it is “disappointed” from the results and regretted that “failed to convince people”.
The currently ruling center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (PPSD, now led by Turkish migrant Dilan Yesilgez-Zegerius) managed to get only 24 seats. For her, of course, this is a failure – in the current parliament, NPSD had 34 mandates.
Finally, Peter Omzig’s New Social Contract is in fourth place. Some call the party center-left, but in essence they are Dutch populists who advocated a complete overhaul of the political system. And in this way they managed to gather protest votes.
The seagull as a “black swan”
The phenomenon of Wilders’ victory has two explanations: the rating of the Freedom Party was growing, and polls took into account the preferences of only those who had made their choice. That is, the opinions of about a third of the population. The rest made a choice at the last minute – and were most likely driven by personal factors.
As noted by French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, Wilders’ victory is a consequence of “all the fears that arise among the European population regarding the issues of migration and the economy”.
The Freedom Party, whose symbol is a seagull in the colors of the national flag, turned out to be “black Swan” in the current election: the unpredictable factor that had a serious impact on the events that took place.
But the main question is what will follow after the sensational victory of the right-wing populists. More precisely, whether Wilders will become the new Dutch prime minister.
After all, we are talking about a politician considered a radical in the Netherlands. Who makes extremely harsh anti-immigrant and anti-Islamic statements. Who asked to stop the migrant flow.
„Wilders is known for his views on Muslims… We fear that he will position us as second-class citizens.” says Habib El Kadouri, leader of the Moroccan diaspora in the Netherlands.
Not surprisingly, all these years the Dutch mainstream parties saw Wilders himself as a second-class citizen, refusing to deal with him. But several factors now play in favor of Wilders’ premiership.
Two arguments in favor of Gert Mecchia
First, the election results. If the leader of the far right gets a conditional 20 terms, then he can be ignored. Still, 37 seats are too many and too noisy. Wilders has already made it clear that in the current situation, putting together a coalition without him would be wrong, to say the least, and even illegitimate.
„A mega-win like this should be respected. So the voters said, they chose change. And it would be extremely undemocratic not to take into account the will of the voters.” said the politician.
If the centrist parties unite to prevent Wilders from returning to power, they may have to pay for the anger of voters, notes the analytical publication of the European branch of Politico.
Second, we must account for the adequacy of the politician himself, who somewhat moderated his rhetoric to create a coalition.
Wilders said he fully understands that parties do not want to enter into a coalition with a political force that advocates unconstitutional measures. “Therefore, we will not raise the issue of mosques, the Koran and Islamic schools,” Wilders promised. To soften his stance, some commentators have already dubbed him Gert Milders (ie Gert Meccia).
“Let him try”
They hear him too.
Yes, former European Commission official Frans Timmermans’ left-liberal bloc still refuses to deal with Wilders. “We will never form a coalition with parties that claim asylum seekers are the source of all suffering.” said the former European Commissioner. He called for a “united fist” to defend democracy and the rule of law.
However, the positions of the other players change.
Thus, initially the leader of the New Social Contract, the populist Peter Omzig, rejected cooperation with Wilders. “He is more of a left-wing politician, and for that reason Wilders’ nationalism is not close to him. In addition, both “graze” on the protest field”, explains for IA Regnum Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities.
However, after the elections and such an impressive success, Wilders and Omzig softened their position – he is ready to conclude a “social contract” with the right.
Even the leader of former prime minister Rutte’s losing party, the liberal Dylan Yesilgez-Zegerius, softened his stance: “I don’t see Wilders as prime minister because I don’t think he can form a majority.” But let him try.”
The votes gathered by the Freedom Party, NPSD and New Social Contract may be quite enough to form a governing coalition. One of the conditions for his appearance, by the way, may be the personal refusal of Wilders (who, although he has become Milders, remains extremely toxic to the mainstream forces) from the premiership.
However, another option cannot be ruled out: the mainstream forces will still take the risk and form a coalition without Wilders.
For example around Timmermans. “All leftists and liberals and even pro-European conservatives can go to Timmermans. Simply on the principle of “anyone, as long as they don’t let Wilders into the government”, explains Vadim Trukhachev.
This scenario is, of course, complicated by the fact that the left now has the most pro-immigrant position of all the winners. “It doesn’t matter where you are from. If you are fleeing war and violence, you are always welcome in the Netherlands. And that approach of ours will never change.” Timmermans said. And this position scares the majority of the country’s population.
Finally, the center-right could form a minority government. However, this cabinet will become extremely unstable and, as Wilders noted, illegitimate.
The main question, however, is what Russia cares who ends up occupying the prime minister’s office in the Hague’s Binnenhof Palace. And here, according to experts, it is worth wishing victory to the one who actually won the parliamentary elections. For Moscow, the best option would be Wilders’ prime ministership, Trukhachev believes.
„The nightmares of the European Union” – on the way
The point is not that the leader of the Freedom Party is a friend of Moscow (by no means is he), but that he is an enemy of Russia’s enemies. “It will not be pro-Russian, it will scold us. However, he will stop supporting Ukraine, even without entering into a dialogue with Russia. That’s enough for us.” notes Trukhachev.
And, of course, Wilders will become a huge headache for Russia’s enemies in Brussels. Above all, with the fact that he will advocate for Nexit – that is, a referendum on the exit of the Netherlands from the European Union on the model of the British “Brexit”.
„And while Wilders has toned down his anti-Islam rhetoric in recent weeks, there are no signs that he wants to tone down his Euroscepticism.” , writes Politico. Geert Wilders is the EU’s worst nightmare.
Moreover, even if the radical does not become prime minister, the election results will still benefit Moscow. After all, they show a trend towards the “sharp right” of the European electorate. In Austria, the leader in all polls is an ideologically similar party with the same name as in the Netherlands – the Freedom Party.
„Italy and Sweden have already made a right turn in the elections last year. They are growing in Germany and France, in Finland… So the trend is evident across Europe,” says Vadim Trukhachev.
A trend that became possible not only due to the influx of migrants, but also due to the sharp fall in the standard of living in the EU (one of the reasons for which was the participation of Europe in the conflict in Ukraine).
„The wind of change is already here,” this is how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reacted to Wilders’ victory. “People don’t want to see the national torch extinguished. There is still hope for change in Europe.” said French far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
The question is how the European Union will react to this trend.
The rulers were shocked, but if they do not take this signal seriously, then the situation will be repeated in other countries, notes one of the most influential Eastern European MEPs, the Czech Jan Zagradil. In his opinion, the elections in the Netherlands sent a simple signal: no more migration, no more “green deal” (emphasis on the development of renewable energy sources to the detriment of traditional ones), no more intervention by Brussels in the internal affairs of countries.
Obviously, the EU will not react in any way, including because it will not be able to give up its sacralized agenda (which includes support for Ukraine).
This means that the contradictions within the European Union will grow and their “Geert Wilders” will come to power in other countries as well, experts believe. Accordingly, the more of them there are, the better for Russia.
Translation: ES
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