/ world today news/ The former president, former prime minister, and now Putin’s deputy in the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, has long specialized not so much in serious political statements as in “shoutouts and cowards” in the spirit of, for example, the following “reassuring thought”: “If the West gives Ukraine nuclear weapons, Russia will have to launch a pre-emptive strike.”
But every rule has an exception.
Here is the statement of Dmitry Anatolyevich, which he made during his visit to Vietnam: “This conflict is for a very long time. It’s all about decades, probably. This is a new reality, new living conditions,” Medvedev said.
He is convinced that under the current regime “there will be three years of truce, two years of conflict – and everything will repeat itself”.
Not the most joyful forecast – not the most joyful, but increasingly common in the conclusions of serious experts.
Vasily Kashin of the Higher School of Economics in an article in the magazine “Russia in International Affairs”: “If Russia fails to occupy and hold in the foreseeable future the main economic centers of Ukraine and deprive it of economic viability, it will be possible to state that Russia’s attempt to solve the “Ukraine problem” has failed just as much as America’s attempt to solve the “Russian problem”.
“Anti-Russia” in this case will continue to exist. Its resources will be completely undermined by the SVO, the destruction of the economy, the loss of territories and the emigration of a significant part of the population.
Nevertheless, Ukraine will become a major problem of Russian foreign policy for decades to come, just as Pakistan has become a perennial problem for India.
This disturbing analogy is much more disturbing than, for example, the analogy with the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This long-simmering conflict, which flared up brightly in 1988, is coming to an end (or, so to speak, passing into a less pronounced form) right now.
Armenia formally accepted its defeat and renounced all its previous claims. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, achieved almost all its goals.
But the conflict between India and Pakistan, on the contrary, has continued since the founding of these countries on the ruins of the British colonial empire in 1947. And there is still no end in sight.
But for all the anxiety of comparing relations between Russia and Ukraine with relations between India and Pakistan, even such a comparison does not reflect the complexity of the situation that our country is facing (and will be facing for a long time).
The conflict with Pakistan does not block for India the possibility of developing economic ties with a significant part of the most powerful countries in the world in this regard. The Indo-Pakistani wars take the form of short-lived military conflicts.
The second India-Pakistan war lasted from August to September 1965, the third – just 14 days in December 1971. Moreover, to date there have been no really major military clashes between India and Pakistan since 1999. By the standards of modern Russian -Ukrainian relations this is an eternity.
I think it is worth recognizing that any analogies between current events in Ukraine and events in other countries and at other times are lame on both legs. We are in “uncharted waters” and all parties to the conflict will have to navigate these “uncharted geopolitical waters” without reliable maps and navigation devices.
Dmitry Peskov recently expressed his solidarity with the Western vision of the situation, which is extremely rare these days, and said that Russia is against “freezing the conflict in Ukraine.” Here is what, according to Vasily Kashin, is behind this position:
“Both sides expect a large-scale escalation of hostilities in the spring and summer of 2023. The United States hopes that Ukraine’s success will allow it to approach the negotiations from a stronger position.” In the event of victory, Russia has reason to count on the destruction of Ukraine and the establishment of control over significant new territories…”
If the spring-summer military campaign fails for Russia, it will most likely take additional steps to mobilize the population and economy.
In other words, freezing the conflict in Ukraine “for decades” is not yet definitively decided. It’s not predetermined – but it’s very possible. This prediction of Dmitry Medvedev should be taken with all respect and seriousness.
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