“Mediana”: Total discrepancy between power and people! In elections – GERB wins with 23.3%, PP-DB – second with 18%, – 2024-08-12 06:45:04

/ world today news/ The country is entering a new type of political crisis, according to the data from a representative survey by Mediana, the sociological agency reported. The previous crisis was a product of the confrontation between the parties and their inability to reach a minimum consensus and form a government. In the end, the parties reached some kind of consensus, which, however, comes into sharp contradiction with the will and expectations of the majority of the voters, who declare – “This is not our government!”, the agency points out.

Basic extracts – The shadow of war

• The main change in public attitudes is the increased anxiety regarding the danger of a global, world war. In just three months, the number of people who believe that there is a serious danger of a world war (in which Bulgaria will also be sucked in) has increased by 16%, and it is now nearly half of the adult population (47%).

• This invariably poses the questions “Where is Europe and the world going?” and “What can and should Bulgaria do in this Europe and in this world?” Naturally, these questions (and the answers that society gives to each other) have a direct impact on the evaluation of the parties, the government, the attitude towards the war in Ukraine, arms supplies, entry into the Eurozone.

• The reaction of the Bulgarian society regarding this increasing anxiety and fears can be summarized as a marked desire for isolationism – distancing Bulgaria from the conflict in Ukraine, distancing from the single-layer assessment of “good-bad” (and in this sense distancing from the main narrative of the EU and NATO), distancing from the Eurozone. Roughly speaking, public opinion is consolidating around the understanding “The world is shaking, it’s going bad – now is not the time to cling tightly to anyone!”

• Thus, only 26% of adults assess Russia’s aggression as unprovoked and unfounded (36% believe that Russia was provoked to attack); 65% believe that Bulgaria should not give weapons to Ukraine (17% are “for”); 60% believe that in this conflict Bulgaria should not support either Russia or Ukraine and should be as neutral as possible (19% support Ukraine; 9% believe we should support Russia).

• Regarding the euro (eurozone), public opinion is also in sharp dissonance with the stated intentions of the rulers. Only 21% think it is good to replace the leva with the euro in the next 2-3 years, against 59% who say: “Now is not the time”! Half of adults believe that a referendum on the euro must be held and only 11% believe that a referendum should not be held (whichever decision the ruling majority in parliament took). As the reason for rejecting the referendum is easily explainable to the public – they want to take us where we don’t want, without considering us (60% of potential participants in a referendum would vote “against”, against 23% “For”)

• There is a sharp dissonance between the views of the majority of society and the daily proclaimed goals of the majority in Parliament. Together with the leaked records of the possible involvement of outside forces in the formation of the “assembly”, this raises the question of the democratic basis of power, as well as the question of the sovereignty of the country. Thus, the majority (56%) of the voters are convinced that who and how governs the country does not depend (or almost does not depend) on the choice of the people, and 45% believe that Bulgaria is not a sovereign state that determines its external and internal affairs by itself politics (against 13% who think it is a fully sovereign state).

• Logically, the ratings for the government are unusually low for a new government – ​​47% consider it disappointing (20% that it inspires hope); 40% consider it harmful and should go an hour sooner (compared to 24% who consider it useful and count on it to rule longer).

• The feeling that democracy has been replaced by a game of democracy (a highly deformed “representative democracy”) also reflects electoral attitudes. The growth of the party “I do not support anyone!” continues, which is now the fifth “political force” with a clear tendency to soon fight to enter the top three. The hardest hit is the nominally governing PP-DB coalition, which is already at 5.3% behind the non-coalition “junior” partner – GERB. The sharp opposition of “Vazrazhdane” and ITN continues to bring them political dividends, as “Vazrazhdane” is now only 2.6% behind the ruling PP-DB. Among the parties below the 4% barrier, “Bulgarian Rise” (2.5%), “The Left” (2.1%) and Ivan Geshev’s new formation (political request) “Justice for Bulgaria” (1%) are noticeable.

• Overall, the study outlines the country’s entry into a new type of political crisis. The previous crisis was a product of the confrontation between the parties and their inability to reach a minimum consensus and form a government. In the end, the parties reached some kind of consensus, which, however, comes into sharp contradiction with the will and expectations of the majority of voters who declare – “This is not our government!”

pre-election emphasis

„AND IF THERE WERE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TODAY, NOW, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?”

% of those who said they would vote

*Pitems with support below 1%

rating of politicians

„IN YOUR OPINION, WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS (REGARDLESS OF YOUR POLITICAL PREFERENCES AND SYMPATHIES) WOULD YOU SAY ARE REALLY GOOD POLITICIANS?’

% answered

„yes, he is a good politician”

ATTITUDE TO GOVERNMENT

„DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT OF NIKOLAI DENKOV INSPIRES HOPE OR ON THE CONTRARY – DISAPPOINTMENT?”

% of all

„DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT OF NIKOLAI DENKOV IS USEFUL FOR BULGARIA AND SHOULD GOVERN AS LONGER AS POSSIBLE OR ON THE CONTRARY – IT IS HARMFUL FOR THE COUNTRY AND SHOULD GO ASAP?”

% of all

„DO YOU THINK THERE IS A RISK OF A WORLD WAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE (IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO?)’

% of all

„DO YOU THINK THERE IS A RISK OF A WORLD WAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE (IN THE NEXT YEAR OR TWO?)’

% of all

ATTITUDE TO RUSSIA AND THE WAR IN UKRAINE

„DO YOU THINK BULGARIA SHOULD GIVE ARMS TO UKRAINE?’

% of all

„DO YOU THINK BULGARIA SHOULD SUPPORT UKRAINE IN THE CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA, SHOULD IT SUPPORT RUSSIA OR EVEN BE MAXIMUMLY NEUTRAL IN THIS CONFLICT?”

% of all

ATTITUDE TO THE INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO AND THE CONDUCT OF A REFERENDUM

„DO YOU THINK IT IS GOOD FOR BULGARIA TO INTRODUCE THE EURO (REPLACE THE LEV WITH THE EURO) IN THE NEXT 2-3 YEARS?”

% of all

„DO YOU THINK THERE SHOULD BE A REFERENDUM (ASKING THE PEOPLE) BEFORE THE EURO IS INTRODUCED (BEFORE WE REPLACE THE LEV FOR THE EURO)?”

% of all

„IF THERE WAS A REFERENDUM FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF THE EURO OR FOR KEEPING THE BEN?

% of all

„WHICH IS CLOSER TO YOUR OPINION – WHO AND HOW GOVERNS THE COUNTRY DEPENDS FIRST OF ALL ON THE CHOICE OF THE PEOPLE OR WHO IS HOW GOVERNS THE COUNTRY DOESN’T DEPEND (VERY LITTLE DEPENDS) ON THE CHOICE OF THE PEOPLE?”

% of all

„DO YOU THINK THAT BULGARIA IS A SOVEREIGN COUNTRY THAT DETERMINES ITS OWN INTERNAL AND FOREIGN POLICY”

% of all

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