/ world today news/ There are serious chances that GERB will suffer defeat. As of October 10, it seems most likely that Tsetska Tsacheva will rank first in the elections on November 6, 2016. She has consolidated the votes of GERB voters and this largely guarantees her first place. But on the first round!
Her big problem is that she does not attract sympathizers outside her own party (93% of her potential voters are GERB supporters). This is shown by the data from a study by the “Mediana” agency on the attitudes towards the presidential elections.
Her candidacy is unpopular outside GERB. If this does not change by the time of the election, this narrowly partisan support will likely prove woefully insufficient to win her the election. And the question is not only about the serious possibility of forming a kind of coalition “All against Tsetska Tsacheva” in the second round. In these elections, we will observe a peculiar phenomenon – an artificial attraction to the polls of a huge mass of traditionally non-voting voters. Elections are mandatory! The referendum will also attract voters. Mediana’s data shows that these will probably be between 550-700 thousand (!) “new” voters. This will significantly increase electoral turnout and significantly reduce the weight of GERB’s consolidated, but still minority, votes.
For now, the second place is held firmly by General Rumen Radev. Unlike Tsetska Tsacheva, he has not consolidated all the votes of the party that nominated him (BSP). BSP sympathizers are “donors” to the candidacy of Ivaylo Kalfin, Tatyana Doncheva, Oresharski, and Krasimir Karakachanov. However, the general has significant support outside the narrow party circles and attracts sympathizers “from outside”.
In third position (with 10%) is Krasimir Karakachanov, keeping chances to join the big battle in the second round.
Ivaylo Kalfin is fourth with a personal result significantly exceeding that of the party that nominated him (ABV).
As if the picture is becoming clearer – Run-off between Tsetska Tsacheva and General Rumen Radev. Krasimir Karakachanov third, Kalfin fourth.
However, this is far from certain. DPS voters have not yet declared their support for one or the other candidate. However, the main thing is the appearance of this huge mass of “new” (traditionally non-voting) voters. This will be the big challenge for all candidates. These voters are generally unpredictable. They have no “own”, preferred party, permanent political leanings. They are predominantly disappointed with politics and the political, skeptical and negatively oriented towards parties and power. Most of them are likely to vote spontaneously and emotionally, to “flip” at the last moment and consolidate. And their volume is so large (about 13% of all voters) that they are able not only to move the ranking after the first place, but even directly shoot the second, third or even fourth to the top. So far, no such consolidation of these “new” voters around one candidate has been observed. But surprises are more than possible! Thus, in addition to the referendum “for” and “against” the mandatory vote, we will be able to see directly the results of the introduction of such a norm. And many may be very surprised by the result, according to the Mediana study.
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