Mediana: Runoff in Sofia – Vanya Grigorova is sure! Let the other two find out who will go!? – 2024-02-15 05:57:09

/ world today news/ Vasil Terziev, Vanya Grigorova and Anton Hekimyan are separated by only 20,000 votes, it is clear from research by the Mediana agency, conducted 10 days before the local elections. The differences between the candidates of PP-DB/”Save Sofia”, BSP/LEVITSATA and GERB for mayor of the capital are minimal and the three are “moving almost in a pack”. The runoff in the capital is guaranteed, sociologists also comment.

The research was conducted in the period October 10-17, 2023 with 710 adult citizens through a direct standardized interview and is representative of the adult population of Sofia. The study is a research project of the “Mediana” agency and was realized with its own funds.

Here are the main conclusions drawn by the agency:

• Ten days before the mayoral elections in Sofia, the unknowns are increasing. Although he started his election campaign first, Vasil Terziev was quickly overtaken by two main competitors – Vanya Grigorova and Anton Hekimyan.
• At the moment, the three are at an insignificant distance (of the order of twenty thousand votes), bearing in mind that only nearly 120,000 people (a quarter) of the likely voters have not yet firmly determined their preferences.
• In this situation, even the fourth (Deyan Nikolov) and the fifth (Vili Lilkov) keep their chances. The wavering and undecided are a huge mass that can swing the election.
• In Sofia, a relatively high voter turnout can be expected in the mayoral elections – about 500-550 thousand voters will stand in front of the polls.
• The same cannot be said for the election of municipal councilors – nearly 30% of those who said they would vote for mayor said they would not vote with party lists for municipal councillors. This shows the marked mistrust of the voters towards the party system as a whole and the hidden (anonymous) power of the parties in municipal affairs. For now, the data show that even if PP-DB-“Save Sofia” and GERB-SDS lose the mayoral elections, they could form a “combination” (get a majority) in the municipal council of the capital.
• There is no doubt that the elections for mayor of Sofia will be decided in a runoff, as the most likely pairs are three: Terziev against Grigorova; Terziev vs. Hekimyan; Grigorova vs. Hekimyan. At the moment, here again we are faced with complete unpredictability. In practice, all three hypothetical runoffs played by us end with the same result, 50:50.
• In the second round, Vasil Terziev can count on very few votes from those who voted for Anton Hekimyan; Hekimyan cannot count on a second round of Terziev’s votes.
• Vanya Grigorova can count on the votes given for Deyan Nikolov (“Vazrazhdane”) and some of those of the other candidates, but not on the influx of those who voted for Anton Hekimyan or Vasil Terziev.
• In practice, the election in Sofia will be decided in the remaining ten days by those 120,000 voters who are currently still hesitating. And a large part of them decide, as research shows, on the last day and even on the way from home to the polls.

In short – Elections with an unknown end!”, comment the data from “Mediana”.