MDG still scores high in Oslo. But Oslo voters do not want more MDGs in the Storting.

MDG continues to receive applause from many Oslo voters for the work they do in the capital. But the people of Oslo do not want the MDGs to govern the country.

MDG gets no slap in Oslo after the no-confidence case against Lan Marie Berg. But MDG’s Oslo voters choose them away nationally.

It shows a recent survey Norstat has done for Aftenposten. It shows that MDG’s Oslo voters have to a small extent been affected by the no-confidence case.

In the poll, which was conducted during and after last week’s political drama in the capital, 6.7 per cent of voters in Oslo would have voted for the MDGs if there had been parliamentary elections today.

It is about the same as the previous poll in March, when the party received 6.9 percent. And a little over what the party got in Oslo during the parliamentary elections in 2017 (6 percent).

– It indicates that most people are interested in completely different things than the opposition’s political theater in Oslo City Hall. We see that people in Oslo love the changes we have had together, says Lan Marie Berg.

– MDG is larger than Lan

In the thickest MDG country – Olaf Rye’s place on Grünerløkka – Aftenposten meets the sibling couple Inga Margrete and Arild Ydersbond on a walk in the sun. The two are not surprised that MDG does not get a Lan Marie Berg bib on the measurements.

– I think people see MDG as something much bigger than her, says Inga Margrete Ydersbond.

She points out that MDG’s voters are among those who are most concerned about climate and the environment, and that Lan Marie Berg has managed to make a big impact, among other things for a more climate-friendly transport policy in Oslo.

Inga Margrete votes for SV, but says she sympathizes with MDG. Brother Arild voted MDG in the last election. He says it is absolutely relevant for him to give his party his support in the next election as well.

– It is the long lines that are important. We have to see the big picture. There, I think MDG has a very future-oriented policy to take care of people and the environment, he says.

More support in the local elections

At the same time, the figures show that MDG is not close to its dream of getting the same support from Oslo for the parliamentary elections as in municipal elections. Good Oslo figures are crucial for lifting the MDGs above the 4 per cent threshold.

In the municipal election two years ago, they got 15 percent in the capital. In the Storting poll, they are still in the 6s, as in 2017. Nationally, the party ended at 3.2 percent in the previous parliamentary elections.

Norstat has asked the same respondents as in the Storting poll, what they would vote for if it was a municipal election. This is not a full-fledged, political measurement, but shows an interesting difference:

Significantly more, 13.1 percent, then state that they would vote MDG.

– We see that people have different preferences for what they want at the municipal level and for the country as a whole. It goes without saying that there are different issues that decide at the different levels. We often see that the narrower parties, such as the MDGs, do better when we ask about municipal elections. There are a number of Oslo residents who want them to have a say in the city, but choose other, typically larger parties when it comes to national politics, explains the person responsible for the survey, Mads Motrøen in Norstat to Aftenposten.

– Has higher ambitions

In the two previous parliamentary elections in 2013 and 2017, the MDG ended up with one parliamentary mandate for the country as a whole. Both in Oslo.

In 2013, Rasmus Hansson broke the sound barrier and became MDG’s first parliamentary representative. In 2017, Une took over Aina Bastholm. In 2013, MDG received support in Oslo of 5.6 percent. In 2017, the party received 6.0 percent.

In the municipal elections in 2019, MDG received 15.3 percent in Oslo. Many in the MDGs have highlighted the 2019 century as realistic to reach for in Oslo also in the parliamentary elections. Especially given the increasing climate commitment, especially among younger voters, in recent years.

With 15.3 per cent of the votes in Oslo, MDG was able to get three direct seats from Oslo in the Storting. In this poll, they are only in with one mandate.

– We have higher ambitions than this, but have also never been better off before a parliamentary election. Now we will use the summer well, and grow in the same way as we have done in previous election campaigns, says Lan Marie Berg.

She believes it is too early to conclude that the party will not reach the goal, and points out that the MDG in 2019 grew by almost 5 percentage points.

As an explanation for the gap between local and national results in Oslo, Berg points out that the national debate over the past year has to a small extent been about climate and environmental policy.

– Our most important job is to make this a climate choice, she says.

Labor largest in Oslo

The Labor Party is nationally victorious. Now the party is also making significant progress in Oslo.

In this poll, the Labor Party is the largest party in Oslo with a support of 26.2 percent. In the previous Norstat poll for Aftenposten in March, the Labor Party received 22.5 per cent. The party is approaching support from the 2017 election when the party received 28.4 percent.

Oslo Ap’s leader Frode Jacobsen says this survey shows “a pleasant development for us”.

– At the same time, we have had other measurements that have shown somewhat lower figures. It shows that measurements go up and down, he says.

He says that the variations in support for the various polls are a reminder that one must stand until election day.

– But with 26.2 percent, we are approaching the election result four years ago. These are good numbers considering that we had a significantly poorer municipal election, and considering much of the noise that has been around the Labor Party.

Nor does it seem to Rødt that the support is particularly affected by the unrest surrounding the no-confidence motion around Lan Marie Berg. It was Rødt in the city council in Oslo who in the end gave the no-confidence motion a majority.

Red gets a support of 8.4 percent, compared to 8.5 in March. It provides two direct mandates from Oslo. If the figures are correct, party leader Bjørnar Moxnes will be joined by Seher Aydar, who is currently the deputy representative for Moxnes.

Super measurement for SV

SV makes a super survey, with a support of 14.2 percent. The party has three direct seats – against two in the current period.

The Conservatives were the largest party in Oslo in the parliamentary elections in 2017, but have now been passed by the Labor Party. In this poll, the Conservatives get 24.8 percent. This is a decline of 4 percentage points since March.

When voters are asked what they would vote for if it were a municipal election, on the other hand, as many as 30 percent of the Conservatives answer.

– I like best the poll where the Conservatives are at 30 percent and the city’s largest party. It is a goal for us, says leader of the Oslo Conservatives, Heidi Nordby Lunde to Aftenposten. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, it is also these numbers that must be taken with a pinch of salt.

According to Motrøen in Norstat, Conservative voters are often more willing to respond to opinion polls than voters in general. Therefore, the support in a poll that was so-called politically weighted, ie adjusted up to what they have voted in the previous municipal election, would have adjusted the support somewhat down.

– These are still very good numbers for the Conservatives at the municipal level, Motrøen states.

Only one Oslo mandate for Frp

The FRP in Oslo is not making any headway in support as a result of Storting representative Jon Engen-Helgheim being on the exposed second place on the Oslo FRP’s Storting list. FRP gets 7.2 percent now, against 7.0 percent in the March poll.

It gives one direct mandate, if there had been parliamentary elections. Christian Tybring-Gjedde will then be the FRP’s only Oslo representative in the Storting.

The FRP only gets 3.8 percent support when voters are asked what they would vote for in a municipal election, but here the opposite effect applies as for the Conservatives.

– FRP almost always performs worse in polls where no political weighting is done because those who vote FRP are often more difficult to reach, Motrøen states.

Jan Bøhler is in the direct mandate for Sp in Oslo also in this poll, as he was in the previous poll in March. Sp has no one in the Storting for Oslo during this period.

–