A pessimistic analysis found that one in 10 workers in developed countries such as the United States is on the verge of losing a job within 10 years. With the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) changing the structure of employment and the nature of jobs, the number of workers at risk of’job transformation’ surged by 25%.
‘Job future’ report expected in 2030
Corona-induced 25% increase in developed countries, 12% increase in total
– McKinsey & Company (hereinafter referred to as McKinsey), a global consulting firm, analyzed 800 jobs and 2000 jobs in 6 developed countries (US, Germany, UK, France, Japan, Spain) and 2 developing countries (China and India). ‘The future of jobs after 19’ released the report.
Number of workers at risk of transition by 2030. Unit: 1 million. [자료: 맥킨지]
– According to McKinsey on the 1st, a total of 170 million workers in the top eight countries of these economies are expected to be in a job transition situation by 2030. This is a 12% increase compared to the previous Corona 19 pandemic, and a 25% increase in developed countries alone. As the current jobs disappear, the number of people at risk of unemployment who have to find new jobs elsewhere will increase.
Specifically, developed countries are ▶ 17 million in the United States (10% of the workforce in 2030) ▶ 6 million (9%) in Japan ▶ 4 million (9%) in Germany ▶ 3 million (8%) in the UK ▶ 2 million (9%) in France ▶ Spain is 2 million (8%). China had 54 million (7%) and India had 18 million (3%).
![After Corona 19, the number of workers at risk of job change is expected to increase significantly by 2030. Unit: %, the proportion of workers involved. [자료: 맥킨지]](https://i0.wp.com/pds.joins.com/news/component/htmlphoto_mmdata/202103/01/c13d44ff-8339-495e-850e-a8ecd77791e7.jpg?w=900&ssl=1)
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After Corona 19, the number of workers at risk of job change is expected to increase significantly by 2030. Unit: %, the proportion of workers involved. [자료: 맥킨지]
– The disappearing jobs are mainly low-wage jobs in the customer service industry such as wholesale and retail and lodging, and the restaurant industry. High school graduates and younger, women, minorities, and younger people are often employed. On the other hand, high-wage jobs in the so-called STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) and healthcare industries are expected to increase further.
“The Corona 19 pandemic will increase the number of job transitions and make reskilling (acquisition of new skills) more difficult in the future,” said Anu Madgabka, a partner at McKinsey Global Research Institute (MGI). Explained.
Three reasons for COVID-19 job shock
– There are three main reasons for the COVID-19 job shock that McKinsey picked. First of all, the way people work has changed. In the future, 20-25% of workers in developed countries work from home 3-5 days a week, and various business trips will be reduced by 20% through teleconference. Accordingly, the number of major global companies’ downtown offices is expected to decrease by about 30% in the future. This change will lead to a decline in jobs in downtown stores, hotels and restaurants.
![Jobs disappearing and growing in the United States by 2030. [자료: 맥킨지]](https://i0.wp.com/pds.joins.com/news/component/htmlphoto_mmdata/202103/01/7c814e1f-1aae-4371-8be5-79fd886ce0b8.jpg?w=900&ssl=1)
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Jobs disappearing and growing in the United States by 2030. [자료: 맥킨지]
– Second, the growth of online shopping and digital transactions is eliminating low-income jobs in retail offline stores. The number of so-called’Gig Workers’ such as couriers, courier drivers, and vehicle-sharing service drivers is increasing, but there is a limit to making up for the decline. The revitalization of digital services such as online learning and telemedicine is also a factor in reducing offline jobs.
Third, the application of automation and artificial intelligence (AI) is getting faster. In major stores, customers place orders and payments through kiosks, and in hospitals and hotels, robots move around and deliver goods. As a result, McKinsey’s analysis is that the proportion of workers at risk of unemployment by 2030 will increase by 7 percentage points in the field customer service industry compared to before Corona 19. Simple office workers (3 percentage points), leisure and travel (3 percentage points), and internal production and warehousing (2 percentage points) are also increasing the pressure to switch jobs.
Korea seems to follow the trend of employment in developed countries as well
– Korea is no exception to this phenomenon. By industry, employment shock was remarkable in the lodging and restaurant business (-313,000 people) and wholesale and retail (-197,000 people) last year. By employment status, the number of daily workers decreased by 170,000 (12.1%) compared to a year ago. (Statistics Office ‘2020 Employment Trend’)
– – The application rate of industrial robots is increasing at the steepest among major countries in Korea. (Bank of Korea’Influence of Industrial Robots on Employment’) It can be positive for productivity, but negatively affects employment and wages. This suggests that the overall employment conditions in Korea are likely to go to a similar trend to McKinsey’s analysis.
Park Young-beom, professor of economics at Hansung University, said, “Corona 19 has hit the face-to-face service industry such as accommodation and restaurant business, wholesale and retail business, and this has driven temporary and daily workers out of the employment market.” As it gets faster, the conditions for job creation in Korea continue to deteriorate.”
“Corona 19 reduces the number of low-wage jobs that have served as a safety net for unemployed,” said Susan Lund’s MGI partner. “In the future, workers should be prepared to find jobs that require more complex skills, such as skills, education and training, and human resources. I do,” he advised.
Sejong = Reporter Son Hae-yong [email protected] 
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