“No one knows exactly where and how Iran will strike, but it will respond. And he will answer immediately” was the certainty expressed in “Vima”, on Wednesday, the associate professor of Social Sciences and director of the Center for Persian and Iranian Studies (CPIS), at the University of Exeter, Maziard Giabi. Adding that “The Iranian regime is not really willing to fight a conventional war, which would see the US dragged into it. Therefore, should he start something like that, he will pay for it with huge costs and human casualties. Khamenei has built his legacy on the ability to avoid war”.
The assassination of the political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniya in Tehran showed that “the state security apparatus has failed to protect its allies” while “there may be conflict within Iran over how to respond” notes the Iranian academic. “But the decision on how to strike Iran is up to the military leaders and the political leadership, based on what is feasible. Iran has fewer options and greater challenges to strike without causing massive escalation.”.
“Psychological warfare, while delaying retaliation, is certainly part of Iran’s ‘punishment'” Maziard Giabi reckons. “It costs Israel and the US money. They have to deploy expensive military tactics, move troops and be on the lookout for a long time.”. There is a chance that Tehran will show restraint “only if Israel agrees to a ceasefire. Then the Iranians will display their attitude as a sign of their strength. But there will definitely be some form of response.” insists our interlocutor. For now he sees the threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel “more serious, because it could lead to direct war, as we saw in 2006. Today it could be on a larger scale, with the direct intervention of regional and international powers, such as Iran, Russia, Iraq and Yemen. Hezbollah is not just a proxy for Iran”.
The crisis finds the Iranian economy “disorganized and the population largely dissatisfied with the legitimacy of the political order. There appears to be little chance of effective change for the better internally and very little scope for forging new links with the Western world and especially Western economies.” observes Giabi, a month after the elections that elevated the moderate reformer to the presidency Massoud Pezeskian. “Repression may only be effective for a while, but eventually political leaders will have to think of a way out of the impasse at home and abroad.” summarizes.
#Maziyar #Gyabi #Tehrans #regime
