The AEX held up well yesterday, which means the weekly loss is ‘just’ 1.9%. Let’s put things into perspective, because ytd the yield is still close to 15%. Investors will also be happy with the rise of ASML, albeit very little (+0.1%). We can thank TSMC for that. The Taiwanese chip maker saw profits rise 54% in Q3.
ASML’s disappointing figures are clearly not coming from ‘customer’ TSMC. While analysts had expected a profit of just under $8.6 billion, the Taiwanese chip manufacturer ended up with an amount of $10.1 billion. While ASML is talking about a ‘gap year’, which according to the CEO Christophe Fouquet will be extended in 2025, there is little sign of this at TSMC.
ECB did what the market expected
The other important item on the agenda was the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. As expected, she lowered the interest rate by 0.25%. Inflation has fallen below the desired level of 2%, but Lagarde warned that inflation will rise again in the coming months because, for example, wages continue to rise. The explanation of the interest rate decision indicated that Lagarde is concerned about economic growth, but that a recession is not imminent. We are heading for soft ground, said Lagarde.
But don’t the figures show a different picture? Look at exports, which fell 2.4% (yoy). In addition, the car industry is still water up to its lips. Temporary employment agencies also face a ‘continuingly challenging climate’, according to the disappointing set of figures from employment agency Manpower. That also explains why Randstad (ytd -25%) was a decliner yesterday.
Now let’s look at the situation on the markets this morning:
- The AEX is expected to open flat.
- European futures indicate a flat open slightly lower.
- Asia ended up closing mixed.
- The CBOE VIX (volatility) index is trading at 19.11.
- The euro / dollar is trading at 1.0841.
- The Dutch ten year interest rate is 2.48%.
- The gold price is higher at $2709(!) per troy ounce.
- For a barrel of WTI oil you are now paying $70.44.
- Bitcoin is trading at $67,752.
Today we do it with Basic-Fit seasonal figures. This will be interesting, especially now that an impatient shareholder is banging the drum and asking the gym operator to explore its strategic options, including exiting the stock market. Today it is also a spin-off of another medium capper WDP and a small capper CM.com. We’ll quickly walk through them below.
Basic-Fit is still on track to meet the 2024 goals
Basic-Fit showed strong figures for the first nine months of 2023. The turnover increased by 17% to €892 million, and the number of clubs grew by 14% to 1,570. The subscriber base also continued to grow, increasing by 13% to 4.2 million.
In addition, the company saw the average turnover per member per month up slightly to €23.86. Looking forward to 2024, Basic-Fit expects further growth, with a network of clubs around 1,575 locations and a turnover between €1.2 billion and €1.25 billion.
CM.com slightly tightens profit forecast for 2024
CM.com’s quarterly figures show that the company is slowly but surely gaining momentum again. Sales increased by 3%, which may not be a huge jump, but after an earlier contraction it is a sign that things are moving in the right direction again. Gross profit increased to 21.1 million euros, with a margin that improved from 29.3% to 32.2%. The adjusted EBITDA made a big jump to 4.7 million euros, while last year this was almost zero.
What is particularly impressive is that CM.com is keeping costs under control, leading to a better outlook for 2024. The free cash flow also shows a more positive picture: still negative in the first half of the year, but the second half is expected to be positive. Add to that some new customers and a strong focus on AI, and CM.com seems to be gaining some confidence in the future.
Wall Street is turning green
American stock markets closed yesterday divided. Before that, all three indices remained at a good level, helped by recovering semiconductor shares and favorable macro news. The S&P 500 fell slightly, the Nasdaq closed slightly higher and the Dow Jones ended the day with a gain of 0.4%.
Yesterday after trading, Netflix released Q3’s. Investors were happy with this, as expectations were exceeded and the outlook improved. In the third quarter, revenue rose 15% to $9.83 billion. Analysts were looking at $9.77 billion. It also turned out that Netflix added more than 5 million new subscribers, bringing the total to 282.7 million.
It was surprising that Netflix will stop reporting quarterly subscriber numbers effective from the first quarter of 2025. The company said it is focusing on revenue and operating margin as key financial metrics.
$NFLX Netflix Q3 FY24:
• Members +5M Q/Q to 283M.
• Ads rate membership +35% Q/Q.
• Revenue +15% Y/Y to $9.8B ($50M hit).
• Operating margin 30% (+7pp Y/Y).
• EPS $5.40 ($0.28 beat).Q4 FY24 Guidance:
• Income +15% Y/Y.
• Operating volume 22%. pic.twitter.com/ukEYqU1i7o– App Economy Insights (@EconomyApp) October 17, 2024
Asian stock markets are divided
Asian stock markets, like American stock markets, showed a mixed picture this morning. The Hong Kong stock exchange recorded a gain of 0.8%, supported by the recovery of the Chinese economy. Shanghai followed with an increase of 0.7%, while Sydney was the biggest loser with a loss of more than 1%. The Japanese stock exchange in Tokyo was almost unchanged.
At the macro level, strong data from China is providing some relief. GDP in the world’s second-largest economy rose 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly higher than expected. Industrial production accelerated 5.4% in September, while retail sales grew 3.2%. In Japan, inflation remained steady at 2.5%
News
The headlines from yesterday’s close:
- 07:49 AEX may begin a flat trading day
- 07:29 Japanese inflation fell slightly
- 07:25 CM.com slightly tightens profit forecast for 2024
- 07:23 Asian stock markets are divided
- 07:04 Chinese business does more than expected
- 07:01 Chinese sustainable growth
- 06:59 European stock markets are expected to open lower
- October 17 Stock market update: AEX on Wall Street
- 17 October Netflix exceeds expectations and creates a scene
- October 17 The S&P 500 closed slightly lower after hitting a new record
- October 17 Oil prices rose slightly
- October 17 Wall Street in good mood after good economic data
- October 17 Arcona Property Fund announces results of takeover bid
- October 17 Great day for European stock markets after the ECB interest rate cut
Agenda: Friday 18 October
- 00:30 Inflation – September (Jap)
- 04:00 Economic Growth – Third Quarter (Chi)
- 04:00 Retail Sales – September (Chi)
- 04:00 Business presentation – September (Chi)
- 07:00 Basic-Fit – Third quarter figures
- 07:00 CM.com – Third quarter figures
- 07:00 WDP – Third quarter figures
- 08:00 Retail Sales – September (UK)
- 13:00 Procter & Gamble – first quarter figures (US)
- 2:30 PM Residential and Building Permits – September (US)
Short positions
Top 10 short positions in the AFM list (source: Shortsell.nl)
And then this
Did we have everything now?
The technology sector should prepare for further disruption https://t.co/PBsJpM7UEc
— Financial Times (@FT) October 17, 2024
JP Morgan analyst on ASML:
JP Morgan analyst on ASML. Wow, disappointed? A few cents off the profit estimates. pic.twitter.com/aJ00SczWRv
– Corné van Zeijl (@stock analyst) October 17, 2024
And gold just keeps going up
# Gold strong today trading at a new high above $2,700. It is a warning sign for the economy and #inflation. pic.twitter.com/frNyvFNeAr
— Craig Whyte (@craigwhytevc) October 17, 2024
Talk about an incredible price increase!
all right OK changed so far +164% compared to yesterday $AMZN, $MSFTand $GOOGL all are interested in small nuclear reactors. pic.twitter.com/PnoCqdwHI4
– unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 16, 2024
You van Heumen is the (final) editor. The information in this article is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make specific investments.
2024-10-18 06:05:00
#AEX #open #bit #higher #weekend #points
