The government is now officially away on vacation, but the political fronts of the autumn are already visible on the horizon and are expected to cause greater or lesser anxieties and headaches in the Maximos Palace. Despite post-election efforts to revive morale and cultivate a sense of government reshuffle, the inertia and disarray caused by the protracted campaign period and the result of the June 9 ballot have shaped a different political environment.
The September polls
The first anxiety of his staff Kyriakou Mitostakis in view of the new political period it is located in the extent to which it will be possible to overturn the feeling that the government is on a path of decay. The June election result is de facto a new starting condition and in this light the first test will be the September poll wave. There it will be seen whether and to what extent there are possibilities to develop a dynamic that will bring the percentages of the ND above the limit of 30% or even higher than the percentages of the ballot box of the European elections, or whether the impression that this is now confirmed will be confirmed its polling “ceiling” for the near future.
Apart from the communication efforts and what the Prime Minister tried to remedy with the reshuffle at the beginning of the summer, there is however no substantial and visible improvement in the critical and decisive issues, which, as it was found, concern and worry the citizens. On the contrary, the problem of punctuality appeared to be aggravated during the summer period, while the inability of an overwhelming portion of citizens to take even a few days’ vacation probably added to the atmosphere.
The return to the Stability Pact
Under this condition and while waiting for the first opinion polls, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will soon start preparing for his sixth appearance at the TIF as Prime Minister. However, this year’s situation presents important particularities and differences compared to the previous ones. According to the official and repeated government admission, there are no more budgetary margins for benefits, while the formula for implementing what Kyriakos Mitsotakis himself and the Minister of Finance is looking for Kostis Hatzidakis describe as “de-subsidization” of economic policy.
The decisive condition for drawing up the new budget will be the return to the narrow framework of the revised Stability Pact after five years of fiscal relaxation. Based on these, primary surpluses of 2.1% of GDP should be ensured for 2024 and 2025, the debt should be reduced from 152% to 146%, while the growth rate should move at least to the level of 2.6% , in a particularly fluid and uncertain international environment. Under these conditions the government will be asked to solve a complex equation and keep its commitments on:
- Abolition of the pretentiousness fee, costing 120 million euros.
- Permanentization of the return of the EFK to agricultural oil, which is priced at 100 million euros.
- Extension of the suspension of VAT on new buildings, costing 20 million euros.
- Increasing the student housing allowance, costing 15 million euros.
- Increasing pensions according to GDP and inflation, at a cost of around 400 million euros.
Mobility in the opposition
In the purely political field, Maximus’ staff is monitoring the mobility in the opposition space, which may disrupt the peculiar political monopoly of the last five years. The government attrition combined with the continuous political discredit of SYRIZA and the expected end of the pending issue of the leadership of the PASOK constitute a combination of parameters with a possibly catalytic effect in the period to follow.
The possibility of a different dynamic developing, especially in the event that the PASoK overcomes its internal conflict relatively smoothly and manages to recover pollically, is likely to shape a new political condition and change the political correlations to a significant extent. In such a case and under terms and conditions, it is estimated that the government and the staff of the Prime Minister will be forced to make rapid adjustments based on the new political facts, without the certainties and the laxity of the previous years, where the political opponent was absent.
The choice Tzitzikosta and in the background… Samaras
In the background of all these sources of concern is the hidden, but real internal front in the SW. According to information, the right wing group, under Antonis Samaras and consisting of eight to ten deputies, is awaiting the formation of the new political treaty and the results of the first polls in order to make its next moves. According to the prevailing opinion, internal party was the criterion of his selection Apostolos Tzitzikostas for the position of commissioner, with the Prime Minister’s eye on the electoral bleeding of the ND to the right in Northern Greece.
The former prime minister has avoided any new public stance, despite the relatively unfortunate result of the European elections, but it is known that he does not intend to be silent in the near future, especially if the autumn polls confirm the deterioration of the government. National issues are expected to be at the forefront of any interventions, and in particular the course of the Greek-Turkish dialogue, which seems to be rather in an uncharted field and without visible goals and realistic aspirations. The international situation and the escalation of Turkish aggression, combined with the crisis in the Middle East and the effort of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to emerge as a player with a decisive role, but also the presidential elections in the USA, especially if he wins them Donald Trumpit is estimated that they could lead to a new period of Greek-Turkish tension, with what this could mean for the internal debate.
At the same time, as the period of decisions for the Presidency of the Republic approaches, it is considered certain that Antonis Samaras will claim a role and influence. According to information, his pursuits will not concern so much his person, but rather the promotion of his possible candidacy Costas Karamanlis for her succession Katerina Sakellaropoulou. If these are verified, it is expected that Kyriakos Mitsotakis will be faced with a new reality and very different needs for political maneuvers and compromises.
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