Mathematician with a warning to jump on COVID-19 until April 20 – Diseases

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“The Robert Koch Institute says we have to multiply 320,000 x 4, that’s 1,300,000. So so many people have encountered the virus without even suspecting. To account for the real situation in our models, we have to multiply that way.” explained to Bulgaria on air the mathematician from BAS Prof. Ognyan Kunchev.

Mathematicians use the number 1,300,000 people, which includes reported and hidden morbidity, to prepare their models. According to Prof. Kunchev from BAS, if the vaccination is not carried out according to plan, the pandemic could continue until March 2022, and the death toll is nearly 40,000. With good organization and a larger number of immunized, COVID-19 is expected to disappear earlier.

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“If 120,000 are vaccinated and even better 150,000 are vaccinated, then by the end of the year – November, December we can end the epidemic in Bulgaria,” he added.

Photo: Bulgaria on air

According to him, the measures imposed since Monday are overdue.

“It’s even late. The main thing to watch is the intensive beds. The red light has been on for a long time,” the professor said.

“The question is now that the system will not explode in April. And it is emerging, somewhere on April 20 it is expected to explode somewhere there. The intensive beds will be overloaded,” said Prof. Kunchev.

About 2,000 fewer people will be infected because of these 10 restrictive measures. A “breath of air” is expected in May, but a fourth wave in the fall cannot be ruled out.