He takes them with him on the plane to campaign in the interior, places them in the first rows of the presidential debate, mentions them – sometimes with first and last name, other times in a veiled way – at the events and takes them on stage: The opposition leaders who came out to express their support for Sergio Massa ahead of the runoff became, in the last week of the campaign, one of the wildcards of the candidate minister of Union for the Homeland. Are Graciela Camaño, Juan Manuel Urtubey, Mónica Fein, Alberto Weretilneck, Rolando Figueroa, Natalia de la Sota and several leaders who, in the script of the UxP campaign command, intend to stage the “government of national unity” that Massa is calling for construction starting in December. But they are not only that, they represent an advance – and guarantee – of the governability that Massa could enjoy if he were elected president. The ruling party already has a legislative agenda for the day after 19-N and control of Congress depends, to a large extent, on these opposition leaders.
In a scenario of virtual technical tie, no one in the Frente de Todos wants to anticipate making speculations about the future of Congress. Many variables depend on the electoral result: the breakup of Together for Change, the defections from the libertarian bloc and the reorganization of the provincial parties with the rest of the “center” blocs. The Macri-Milei agreement dynamited the parliamentary map that had emerged from the polls on October 22 and, now, the rearrangement of the rubble depends on what happens on Sunday. The album of opposition figurines that Massa began collecting in the last couple of weeks, however, fulfills a specific objective (beyond generating a favorable climate for Sunday): pave the way to approve as many initiatives as possible before the legislative change.
Times are pressing. Today, the FdT has 118 of its own votes in the Chamber of Deputies and, although it will continue to be the first minority as of December 10, it will have 13 fewer seats. In the event that Massa is elected president, the FdT must make the most of the three weeks it has left until the replacement. Massa wants to discuss the 2024 Budget – with its respective “separate” on tax expenditures – as well as various economic reforms and projects that were pending from last year (money laundering, educational financing law, among others).
In Deputies, this objective can be met with the adhesions that were collected in the last couple of weeks: Graciela Camaño and “Topo” Rodríguez from Identidad Bonaerense, Natalia de la Sota from Córdoba Federal, Luis Di Giácomo and Agustín Domingo from Juntos Somos Río Negro (party led by the elected governor Alberto Weretilneck), Mónica Fein and Enrique Estévez of the Socialist Party, Diego Sartori and Carlos Fernández of the missionary Frente para la Concordia. He is also joined by Rolando Figueroa from Neuquén – the elected governor with whom Massa led an event on Tuesday – and Claudio Vidal from Santa Cruz. Only with these guarantees, Massa has guaranteed a quorum until December 11, without the need to appeal to the radicals, the left or the people of Córdoba who respond to Juan Schiaretti.
Starting December 11 It will be another story, but at UxP they trust that they will be able to weave the necessary agreements to maintain governability. In the new chamber, UxP – exFdT- will have 105 deputies of its own (plus the 4 missionaries), that is, 20 below the quorum. It will be an uphill scenario, but more accessible than for Javier Milei, if the libertarian were elected president. There are many pieces at play. Firstly, the interblock of 94 deputies of Together for Change, which does not have much life expectancy. The ruling party’s bet is to negotiate with the 35 radical deputies -25 from the UCR, 10 from Evolución-, as well as some loose “federal” change-makers, such as Miguel Ángel Pichetto, Emilio Monzó or Nicolás Massot. There are also the five FIT votes, which were key for the ruling party in the last couple of years.
The question is what will happen to the La Libertad Avanza blockwhich will now have 37 deputies (one less than on 22-O because Pablo Ansaloni already announced that he was breaking with LLA when Milei reached an agreement with Macri). In the event that the libertarian candidate is elected president, efforts will be made to build a quorum with the toughest PRO and from the right with which he plans to form a future government, as well as with some provincial forces – including the Peronists – and the former Cambiomita interbloc. Sustaining governance, in the case of Milei, will be more difficult. Massa, on the other hand, is betting on going fishing for several libertarian seats if he is elected president.
Senate: a secured majority
One of the good news for the ruling party that the presidential debate brought was the public support given to Sergio Massa by a senator from Together for Change: the woman from Neuquén. Lucila Crexell. “Resignation is not an option in politics. That is why I support Sergio Massa. I join his call for dialogue. I trust that he has the qualities to face the institutional reconstruction of Argentina. The ‘new’ is improvisation and political inability to govern “, the Cambiamita senator tweeted on Monday, the first from the JxC interbloc to speak out in her favor (when the majority had opted either for neutrality or to accompany Milei).
The FdT has had several problems meeting in the Senate for a long time – the illness of José Uñac from San Juan and the death of Matías Rodríguez from Fuegian did nothing but complicate an already difficult panorama – and Crexell’s support allows the ruling party to hope for the possibility of finally reaching a quorum after the elections. But not only that: after December 11, the FdT will have 35 senators of its own who, added to the support of allies who have already expressed their support for Massa, will enable him to have a guaranteed majority in the event that he assumes the presidency.
