Gold is one of the investments that has given the greatest satisfaction since the beginning of the year. From January 1st to August 21st, 1,000 euros invested in specialized ETFs became 1,222, with a gain of 22.2%. Its price, meanwhile, has jumped from 1,520 to over 2,000 dollars an ounce, surpassing the previous record of 2011.
The outlook Even after this rally, cautious optimism about the outlook for the precious metal seems to prevail among market participants. For Barani Krishnan, Investing.com’s commodities analyst, for example, gold constitutes true safe haven status (which attracts many investors to target it to protect the portfolio from financial market risks) and also has hedging characteristics from ‘inflation (which are attracting huge flows of capital): historically, in fact, when consumer prices rise, gold tends to rise as it is considered an asset that does not depreciate over time. Jack Janasiewicz, Portfolio Manager, Solutions, Natixis Investment Managers, analyzing the yellow metal, believes that the conditions for its appreciation are still in place.
$ 2,200 As for the price forecasts, WisdomTree experts say that, in the event of a U-shaped economic recovery, prices could go up to $ 2,640 an ounce by July 2021 while the consensus of the analyst average market sets the price of gold at $ 2,200 in 12 months. Credit Suisse, on the other hand, estimates a price tag of $ 2,150 within the next 12 months. In the meantime, in the last two weeks, there has been a physiological correction in the price that has brought it to around $ 1,950. The suggestion, for those who intend to bet on the precious metal now, is to do it in different tranches: for example if you want to use 5% of the liquidity in your portfolio in gold, you can do it by purchasing 1-2% at a time in order to mediate entry prices.
ETF solution The simplest and cheapest solution is to use specialized gold ETFs that faithfully reflect the trend in euros of the precious metal with low costs: brokerage costs (bank or SIM) between 0.10% and 0 , 20% of the amount invested and annual management costs (between 0.25% and 0.50%) included in the daily value of the share.
Gold Equity Funds For those wishing to dare more to earn higher figures (but also accepting the risk of higher losses) there are also specialized equity funds on gold companies, the best of which since the beginning of the year have managed to record performances of over 60%. These are funds that invest in a few dozen companies active in gold mines such as, for example, the Canadian Barrick Gold, Alamos Gold, B2Gold, Kinross Gold, the American Newmont, the Australian Northern Star Resources, the South African Anglogold Ashanti. A choice that also exposes the investor to the typical risks of stock exchanges: between 19 February and 23 March these funds lost on average over 30%, in line with the MSCI world index of world stock exchanges (-34% ). Returning to indexed products, the Gold bullions ETF has a particularity: the capital of the subscribers is invested in gold bars of the highest quality kept at the English bank HSBC. Among the ETFs listed on the Milan Stock Exchange that invest in gold bars and not in futures or other derivative contracts, this ETF allows, at the time of divestment, to receive real gold coins of the British mint.
Gold bars and coins In this regard, it is always possible to buy both bars and gold coins on the market through authorized operators. In the case of ingots, the value of the investment follows the change in the price of gold on the market while in the case of coins there is a quotation in financial newspapers and on specialized sites that indicate the ask price (the minimum that a seller is willing to accept to sell) and demand (the maximum of those who are willing to buy) with a differential of several percentage points (between 6% and 8%), in favor of the intermediary.
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