The AEX indication is -0.6% after a long American weekend and a possibly even longer Chinese weekend, so to speak. So more.
Anyway, where were we after the Pentecost weekend with Europe, which was open yesterday, but closed stock markets in the US. No, there is no debt ceiling agreement yet. According to Bloomberg now:
US equity futures posted modest gains amid cautious optimism the tentative debt-ceiling deal will avert a default that could otherwise come June 5. Futures linked to 10- to 30-year Treasuries also rallied on light volume. US stock markets are closed for a holiday.
A debt-accord hearing will be held today by the US House rules committee, a day before the whole body votes on it.
The White House and Republican congressional leaders stepped up lobbying campaigns for passage.
The overview:
- European futures dated 0.1% to 0.6%
- The US are up 0.1% to 0.4% for technology
- In Asia, Japan and Korea rose narrowly and elsewhere there are only measly minuses
Alibaba +2.8%
Tencent -0,1%
TSMC -0,4%
Samsung +2,7% - So, the volatility (CBOE VIX index) is -8.8% at 17.5 and the BofA MOVE index (bonds) is +4.2% at 145.4
- Oops, the dollar is up 0.2% to 1.0688 again
- Gold is down 0.5% (with the rising dollar), oil is down 0.7% to 0.9% and crypto is up a few tenths. Bitcoin Survives at $27,780 as Risk Appetite Returns?
European interest rates are stretching once again, but US rates are already running.
EUR/USD first: the dollar rise is becoming a trend. The question is whether it is just the debt ceiling, or whether there is more at play.
Not much has changed in the picture yesterday. The AEX (orange) and our ten-year interest rate are rippling along, but still tend to be slightly higher.
In the US, the huge differences stand out this year between the broad market, technology, chippers and small caps. Unique picture: with a recession written in the stars these results.
There is no business and economic news from the Netherlands and hardly any from the US. A lot comes from China. In addition to an economy that is disappointing, the stock markets there are also sputtering. Yes, it’s the Hang Seng.
A key gauge of Chinese stocks is on track to enter a bear market, dealing a blow to investors who bet on a revival after the reopening rally flopped
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
Reuters has also noticed and reports the following about the Chinese stock market and investor sentiment:
The last great hope for China’s faltering post-pandemic rally is fading as the nation’s legion of small-time investors turns bearish on equities to double down instead on safer assets amid a stuttering economic recovery. More here: pic.twitter.com/CkwXboLXcy
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) May 30, 2023
Indeed, it is perhaps understandable for people to throw in the towel. You will see the CSI 300 (Shenzhen orange) and the Hang Seng. It depends on how you calculate exactly, but a two-year bear market is really hitting and the main index from Hong Kong has actually been bad since 2018. There is a lot for that boom & bust and sideways.
That is a typical feature of an undeveloped market with few steady institutional inflows that dampen movements. This applies to the CSI 300 and also to other Chinese indices. However, the Hang Seng is a capitalized market and that may make this move extra painful.
Today we kick off with all of this week’s key data: US labor market data, purchasing managers’ indices, and several European countries come with their first estimates of inflation for this month. Spain is the first today and maybe we should do our shopping there.
Oh yes, Dutch manufacturing output prices fell 2.3% YoY in May. Last June it was still +30.5%.
Furthermore, the markets are not happy with the Turkish election result, as witnessed by the ever-declining lira.
News, advice, shorts and agenda
The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closing yesterday:
- 08:03 AEX probably starts light in the green
- 07:51 Ebusco takes first step in shipping
- 07:08 European stock markets are expected to open higher
- 07:02 First drop in Dutch manufacturing prices in over 2 years
- 07:00 Confidence in Dutch entrepreneurs down
- 06:53 Stock market agenda: macroeconomic
- 06:52 Stock market agenda: foreign funds
- 06:51 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
- 29 May European stock markets close slightly lower after a quiet Pentecost day
The AFM reports none shorts and therefore the overview. There have been several times:
From agenda:
22:00 Hewlett Packard – US Second Quarter Figures
22:00 HP Inc – Second Quarter (US) Figures
06:30 Producer prices – April (NL)
06:30 Producer Confidence – May (NL)
09:00 Inflation – May (Spa)
11:00 Consumer Confidence – May def. (EUR)
15:00 Case Shiller home prices – March (US)
4:00 PM Consumer Confidence CB – May (US)
And then this
Exactly this, at most maybe insurers and European energy companies that can still pay a little?
Quality stocks are most likely to outperform in uncertain times, according to a Bloomberg survey. The trouble is, they’re already expensive
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
And sooner or later this will also apply to chips?
WATCH: China’s home-grown C919 jet completed its first commercial flight from Shanghai to Beijing under China Eastern Airlines. The aircraft produced by Commercial Aviation Corp of China is meant to rival Airbus and Boeing as China seeks to become more self-reliant pic.twitter.com/mkyllCrLLf
— Reuters Business (@ReutersBiz) May 29, 2023
The networks have a lot of Chinese news and this is a flywheel of the world economy. It is perhaps strange that the reopening was better than expected in our economy and disappointing in China:
From glass to corn starch, a look at some niche commodities markets shows how China’s stuttering recovery extends to almost every nook and cranny of its economy
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
The theme for this decade: AI and India. Earning something from it is verse two.
India’s strong economic expansion over the next 10 years coupled with a growing population will help boost the share of the country’s assets in investor portfolios, says Amundi
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
In summary, we bought their gas last year and now they buy our coal?
Coal cargoes unwanted in Europe are heading to Asia, where utilities are stockpiling the fuel amid sweltering temperatures heading into the summer
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
So Nvidia. And she had just sold it in January.
It’s not every day that Cathie Wood labels a stock-market darling of the innovation economy too expensive
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) May 30, 2023
Have fun and good luck today.
2023-05-30 06:27:29
#Nice #premarket #results #markets #running #speeds #year #IEX.nl
