<오늘의 미나리>
1. Macro
◆Main indicators (stock/bond/dollar/crude oil/gas/coin)
3 major indices start flat
Treasury bonds fell…10 years 3.5% 2 years 4.1%
Crude Oil Rising, Natural Gas Falling
Gold down, coins up slightly
◆US PMI
US S&P PMI 50.4
Exceeded expectations of 49.0
Service PMI also exceeded 53.7..52.0
Tighten more weight
UK core retail sales/PMI/Eurozone PMI+stagflation concerns
UK Retail Sales -0.9% (-0.5%) Mon
Core retail sales -1.0% (-0.7%)
Manufacturing PMI fell below 46.6 (48.5)
Service 54.9 (48.5) Overall 56.6 (54.5)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 45.5 (48.0)
German manufacturing PMI also fell below 55.7 (53.3)
The manufacturing industry is cooling down, but the service is still hot
Recession-inflation fears grow in the UK
Concerns about the wage-price spiral are waning
ECB March Minutes “Wages, Limited Impact”
IMF “Wages do not rise more than prices.. Corporate profits increase”
“Real income must be restored by rising wages”
Andromeda Capital “Britain is the most vulnerable”
“Britain’s worst performance this year” with reduced purchasing power
US restrictions on investment in China + concerns about Taiwan
Ma country attempts to ban Chinese private investment
Executive order banning Chinese high-tech investment
Planning to sign at the G7 summit next month
“Pursuit of security even in conflict of economic interests”
Taiwan concerned about US-China conflict
“US should lower the level of political speech”
◆Meme Equity Bond ETF?
Short-term debt chaos in aftermath of debt ceiling negotiations
May maturities -1.2% compared to June, -1.49% compared to July
$3.5 billion in 15 leveraged bond ETFs
1.6 billion dollars in TMF alone… 720 million dollars this year
Leveraged Bond Funding Doubled After 2020
TLT-related option contracts 827,000 -> 2.2 million in 10 years
Bloomberg “TLT for institutions, TMF for individuals”
“Equitization of the bond market meme… consider volatility”
Wall Street market analysis
Longview Economics “Economic recession is coming…prepare for pain”
“CB Index Lowest Since November 2020”
108.4, down 1.2% from the previous month.
12 consecutive months of decline. It fell more than expected (-0.7%) or February (-0.5%).
“Typically 1 year after the reversal of the national debt…a timing problem”
“There will be no recession without stock damage… there will be a normalization”
Wells Fargo “short-term impact even after austerity ends”
“The rebound has stalled after the uptrend cycle has been removed”
S&P already rebounded 15% since October
“Reflect the price to remove additional Fed hike uncertainty”
Evercore “Without market chaos,
After the increase, it will take more than two months to lower it again.”
2. Performance
◆(loaded) Procter & Gamble/Schlumberger
P&G Earnings Announcement
20.1 billion in sales, $1.37 in EPS
outperforming the market
Higher prices offset lower demand
P&G Product Portfolio Pricing
10% increase from the previous year
Sales declined for 4 consecutive quarters
3% decline in the first quarter
P&G CFO: “Things are getting better”
Decrease in sales after the Russo-War War
The decline in sales was mainly in Europe
Sales in the US and China are recovering
◆Schlumberger exceeded expectations.. Share price fluctuated
Sales $7.7 billion (7.45 billion) EPS $0.63 (0.6)
Cash flow $330 million, $710 million forecast cut in half
“Growth, Increase Working Capital for Incentives”
Predicting next week’s results
月 Coca-Cola/Whirlpool/First Republic Bank
Fire Visa/Pepsico/Novartis/McDonald’s/Danaher/UPS/Raytheon
Texas Instruments/Verizon/GE/UBS/3M/BTI/Chipotle
Water Meta/Roche/Boeing/ServiceNow/CME Group/Roku
Wooden Amazon / Mastercard / Eli Lilly / Merck / AbbVie / T-Mobile
Comcast/Bristol Myers Group/Honeywell/Amgen/Intel/Caterpillar
Northrop Grumman / Activision Blizzard / Hershey / Valero Energy / Seegene / Domino
Gold ExxonMobil/Chevron/BYD/Colgates
3. News
◆Consideration of termination of bank capital benefits
The Fed ‘fiddles with’ regulation of mid-sized banks
Examination of termination of government bond capital reflection exemption
Treasuries can be sold or held until maturity
If the capital exceeds US$ 250 billion, the capital ratio is reflected
Considering volatility for small banks
Capital reflection exemption benefits..SVB aftermath
Assets $100 billion – $700 billion 30 banks
Prepare a regulation this summer and implement it over two years?
Build more local bank capital
Possibility of reducing buyback and attracting additional funds
U.S. long-term bonds, MBS buying likely to decline
Concern about unrealized bank losses grows as interest rate hikes rise
US Bancorp, PNC Financial, Truist
Discussion of potential impacts such as Capital One
Tesla price rise again
Tesla surprise price hike after earnings announcement
Model S and X up $2500 each
Shares plunged after hints of a price cut the previous day
Model S, X 10,000 units in 1Q.. only 2.5%
It doesn’t seem to have much impact on revenue.
Musk: Cars that won’t be important in the future
Musk’s assets also fell by $12.6 billion
Give the LVMH chairman the world’s richest person again
Concerns grow over ‘double top’ chart pattern
Concerns about decline after making two highs
Space X “Half Success”
Twitter launches Blue Ribbon service
$1.5 billion Tesla shareholder group
An open letter to the board of directors, “Relax Musk”
Focus on Musk and Tesla
Musk’s inside director should be fired
Raising Tesla Governance Issues
“Stakeholders, Collective Frustration”
Trueist “Willing to cut prices, lower profits”
Tesla, Buy->Hold down
“Consider reducing the value of your core car”
Lower price target from 245 -> $154
◆Volkswagen invests 1.1 billion dollars in China / Toyota targets China
Volkswagen invests $1.1 billion in China
Construction of Hefei EV R&D/Parts Purchasing Center
Employment of 2,000 people in charge of R&D and purchasing
Joint development of parts by involving local Chinese companies
Expected increase in Chinese demand?
“Reduction of new product development period by 30%”
Volkswagen has a low market share in China’s electric vehicle market
10 EVs to be launched in China by 2026
Toyota begins ordering EV sedans from China
Two types of EV to be launched in China next year
“Joint vehicle with FAW… Ordered 5,000 BZ3”
Price 2.46 million dollars.. lower than last year
“Start production of hydrogen cars in Beijing next year”
EV companies accelerating their penetration into China
Apple is developing a journaling app
WSJ “Apple develops journaling app”
Daily activity/thought recording software development
I record my daily life
‘Journaling’ is different from diary
‘Journaling’ business growth potential Apple sees
Reflecting Mental Health Care Interest
On the one hand, the controversy over copying third-party apps
Journaling No. 1 ‘Day One’ CEO “Apple in ‘Sherlocking'”
What is ‘Sherlocking’?
Large corporations, plagiarism of competitor’s software
Whole Foods cuts jobs
4. Report
Philip Morris/AT&T
Goldman Sachs: “Excessive plunge in stock prices”
Philip Morris reaffirms ‘buy’
5% drop due to lower performance the previous day
“Profits will increase in the future…Overreaction”
“Awesome entry point made”
EPS expected to rise 7-9% this year
The guidance for the second quarter is also conservative… “Possible to exceed”
Target price of $120..24% room
HSBC “Quarterly performance overreaction”
Upgrade AT&T ‘Buy’ investment rating
Poor earnings, cash flow concerns plummet
“Oversold… solid growth in the mobile sector”
“Executives already warned of difficulties in January”
Target price of $21..19% room
◆Barclays, ‘Best Choice’
Dick’s Sporting Goods “Rise in market share”
ARGUS “Rare Retailer”
Dollar General ‘Buy’ price target $250
UBS “Risk-Reward Level Attractive”
Bill.com ‘Buy’ investment opinion
MS “short-term risk increased”
Seagate’s ‘equal weighting’ lowered
Wells Fargo “Best Choice”
Selected by Starbucks…”Considering China’s change”
Cantor Fitzgerald ‘buys’ CVS-UNH
Benchmark, SE-GRAB ‘buy’
New York = Jeong So-ram/Shin In-gyu Correspondent ram@hankyung.com
