The two research reports released by Matrixport on January 2 and 3 showed contradictory views that aroused the anger of the community. Many people questioned that the platform was using the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF to maliciously manipulate the market.
(Previous summary: The killer of BTC’s plunge? Matrixport: SEC will not approve any spot ETF in January, Bitcoin plummeted 20%)
(Background supplement: Bitcoin has skyrocketed in January! Matrixport: Institutions have begun FOMO and will buy aggressively)
The probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in January is estimated by many analysts to be above 90%. However, a report released by Matrixport on the evening of yesterday (3rd) stated that the SEC would not approve any ETF in January, and Bitcoin would therefore correction sharply to around US$36,000~38,000.
As a result, a few hours later, BTC plummeted within an hour, from US$44,500 to US$40,750, the worst drop in several months. The community accused Matrixport of making random statements and even questioned whether it was malicious. Possibility of market manipulation.
Is Matrixport bullish or bearish?
In fact, the market’s suspicion of Matrixport manipulating the market does not seem to be groundless, because just the other day (2), Matrixport had just made a very optimistic judgment on the SEC’s adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which was worth $50,000 in January. Let’s take a look at the differences between the forecast reports released by Matrixport on two consecutive days:
January 2nd:“Bitcoin spot ETF is about to be approved, BTC will jump to $50,000”
- Institutional investors who have been bearish in the past are expected to immediately increase their positions in Bitcoin in early 2024 in order to avoid missing out on the rising market.
- The approval time of the Bitcoin spot ETF may be earlier than market expectations. This unexpected early approval may further promote the rise of BTC
- The ETF pass won’t be a “sell news” event either, as a Bitcoin spot ETF will make Bitcoin a legitimate asset in institutional portfolios
- The halving cycle coupled with the US election will continue to drive Bitcoin higher
- Taken together, Bitcoin looks at $50,000 in January
Matrixport reported on January 2 that it was bullish on Bitcoin. Source: Matrixport
January 3rd:“Why will the SEC reject Bitcoin spot ETF application again?” 》
- At present, the SEC’s requirements for Bitcoin spot ETFs have still not been fully met, so the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF applications in January, but will delay it until the Q2 quarter of 2024.
- SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is opposed to cryptocurrencies and believes that cryptocurrencies have not yet been strictly regulated. Therefore, from a political perspective, Gensler will not change his attitude to embrace Bitcoin soon, nor will the SEC’s five-person voting committee, dominated by Democrats, Bitcoin spot ETF voted for in short order
- Once the SEC rejects the ETF, Bitcoin will plummet to around US$36,000~38,000 in a short period of time (a drop of about 20%)
- If there is no information about the approval of any Bitcoin spot ETF before January 5, investors should immediately buy Bitcoin put options, or directly short Bitcoin.
Matrixport reported on January 3 that it believed ETFs would not pass in January. Source: Matrixport
Two reports with completely opposite short-term positions were published within 24 hours. No wonder the community was extremely angry. Due to the violent fluctuations in the past 24 hours, more than 200,000 people liquidated their positions.
Bloomberg Analyst: No sign that ETFs will be rejected
Although Matrixport’s report claims that the SEC will not approve any Bitcoin spot ETF in January, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas emphasized that he has not received any news about the SEC’s rejection of the ETF proposal:
Other than a pass (Bitcoin spot ETF), I don’t see any other signs to the contrary.
People tagging me like crazy on this “rejection” report. We have heard nothing to indicate anything but approval but I want to give the guy benefit of doubt so I’m asking if he has any sources or if he just speculating. He seems to be bitcoin bull and recently tweeted…
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 3, 2024
In order to verify the arguments of the Matrixport report, Balchunas also actively consulted Markus Thielen, the author of the report, to obtain relevant sources. The latter later also stated that the report was purely his personal opinion and did not cite any specific sources.
Source: X
The community angrily accuses Matrixport of maliciously manipulating the market.
In response to the significant changes in Matrixport’s analysis report within two consecutive days, combined with the currency price reaction, many people in the community have questioned Matrixport, believing that it is maliciously manipulating the market.
Francesco Madonna, CEO of Fundhelios, posted on the X platform that he believes Matrixport’s two reports are 100% intended to manipulate the market:
Go short – post an article like this – and get rich. This is why the cryptocurrency market needs to be regulated.
100% market manipulation attempt . Open a short —> Publish an article like this —> get rich . That’s why we need regulation in this market .
— Francesco Madonna (@CiccioMadonna) January 3, 2024
In addition, a user named Water Junkie Cat also posted on X that Bitcoin’s plunge last night was caused by a report released by Matrixport:
It also shows how the financial game is rigged.
Many netizens in the community (X) are even more directChokingMarkus Thielen, author of the report: “Should go straight to jail, this is market manipulation.”
Wu Jihan clarifies: Matrixport report is an independent opinion of analysts
As the matter fermented, Matrixport co-founder Wu Jihan also posted a response on the X platform:
Matrixport analysts operate independently and express their opinions without interference from management, and yesterday’s report was prepared for clients only and its wider dissemination in the media was not planned.
In addition, Wu Jihan also emphasized that in the long run, the Bitcoin spot ETF will eventually be approved by the SEC, and new funds will be attracted. The current fluctuations and whether the first Bitcoin spot ETF will be born in January will unimportant.
Matrixport’s analysts operate independently, expressing their opinions without any influence or interference from management. They are employed for their superior analytical skills compared to mine and other management team. I have only briefly glanced at the title of the report,…
— Jihan Wu (@JihanWu) January 3, 2024
Then early this morning, Wu Jihan posted another message:
This sudden incident slightly disrupted my vacation. When I woke up, I found that Matrixport’s analyst report was actually responsible for the market crash. The pot is too heavy to carry.
Matrixport analyst Markus did not express conflicting views on the same day. He tweeted one view on Tuesday and the opposite on Wednesday.
Our analyst did adjust his view. In this ever-changing market, being able to calmly do “what is today and what was wrong yesterday” and adjust one’s views in a state of “turning one’s face faster than turning a book” should be regarded as an ability and advantage.
If you’re a trader, you don’t want to work with an analyst who’s stuck with what he saw yesterday. It is possible that he has realized that he was wrong yesterday, but is embarrassed to admit and tell you. Matrixport works with a number of outstanding analysts, whose ability to quickly change their perspective continues to be highly appreciated by Matrixport clients.
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2024-01-04 04:05:54
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