© Diary
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The candidate for a second term, Rumen Radev, has over 20 percentage points ahead of the other contenders for Dondukov 2, but it is almost certain that the president will be elected in the second round. The 47th parliament will include six or seven political formations, with the new project “Continuing Change” being the second political force after GERB-UDF and having a chance to grow, the MRF being fourth after the BSP, and the winner of the last vote “There is such a people” remains in sixth place after “Democratic Bulgaria”. 58% are firmly determined to vote, and the introduction of the so-called a green certificate has affected some of the voters for whom they will vote – the presidential vote of 6.3% of them, and the parliamentary – of 4.9%.
This is shown by the data from a survey of “Market Links”, funded by the sociological agency and BTV and conducted in the period from 2 to 7 November among 1,012 adult citizens by the methods of direct personal interview and online survey.
Those who decided to vote were 58%, and those who answered “Rather yes” – 19%. Those who hesitate are 10%, as are those who firmly refuse to vote. 3% of voters answer “Rather not”. Sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov expects that turnout will be close to that of the April 4 elections – about 52%.
46.7% of the voters will vote for Rumen Radev (39.9% of all), for Anastas Gerdjikov – 25.6% of the voters (20.9% of all), for Mustafa Karadayi – 10.3% of the voters (6.4% of all), for Lozan Panov – 7.7% of the voters (5.3% of all), for Kostadin Kostadinov – 2.6% of the voters and as many of all, and for Luna Yordanova – 1.3 % of voters. About 4.9% of those who decided to vote have not decided who they will vote for, according to the survey data.
According to sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov, the second round of the presidential election is almost certain, as Rumen Radev’s distance is largely enough to win the election, but the political situation is complex and there is a dynamic of forces, so the runoff will be interesting and the result will not be clear. maybe until the last minute.
The analysis of the results presented to BTV shows that while the two cabinets have led to increased confidence in President Rumen Radev, now the opposite is due to the COVID crisis, the introduction of a requirement for a green certificate for indoor activities and the campaign of opponents against him. There is dissatisfaction and fear, as before October this year. Dissatisfied with the development of the country are 72% compared to 21% – satisfied, which is close to the attitudes in March this year. – 70% to 24%.
According to the study 6.3% of the voters in the presidential vote are influenced by the introduction of the green certificate in their choice of who to vote for, and the share of those participating in the parliamentary elections is 4.9%.
There will be six or seven political formations in the next parliament, as GERB-UDF retains a significant lead of 23% of voters (18.7% of all) and is a clear winner. In second place is the new formation “We continue the change” with 16.3% support from voters (13.2% of all), but there is a possibility for growth or decline by 1-2 percentage points.
Third is the BSP with 12.1% of the vote (10.6% of all), and according to Dobromir Zhivkov will reach the level of the vote in July. In fourth place is the MRF with the support of 11.2% of voters (6.8% of all), and the mobilization is due to presidential candidate Mustafa Karadayi. Fifth is “Democratic Bulgaria” with the support of 10.5% of voters (7.1% of all) and sixth is “There is such a people” with 9.7% of voters (9.1% of all). On the verge of entering parliament with 4.1% is “Stand up. BG! We are coming!”, Followed by “Vazrazhdane” – 3%, VMRO – 1.2%, and other parties 1.2%.
7.7% of those who decided to vote have not decided for whom to vote, and according to the analysis of “Market Links” their vote can go to “We continue the change” and “Democratic Bulgaria”.
According to the survey, 10% of respondents have an optimistic view of the country’s development, 35% – rather optimistic, 27% – neither optimistic nor pessimistic, 22% – rather pessimistic, and 6% – pessimistic.
* The Market Links survey was funded and carried out jointly by the Sociological Agency and BTV. It was conducted in the period from 2 to 7 November among 1,012 adult citizens by the methods of direct personal interview and online survey.
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