Market lacks much-needed impetus from closed Wall Street

The chaos at the listed B&S Group is now complete now that the annual figures have been postponed, the CEO and vice-chairman of the Supervisory Board have resigned immediately and investors no longer know where they stand.

All this is obviously unworthy of a listed company. The plans of the group’s founder and major shareholder to make an offer are on hold. An update:

Chaos complete at BS Group IEX Premium https://t.co/Ymi2hLgUgC via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

Adyen

Payment processor Adyen has already recovered from the price drop of earlier this month on the basis of disappointing figures. That went fast. The Investor Desk calls for a split of the ‘expensive’ share, but probably the top of the group does not listen to this:

Advisory change Adyen IEX Premium https://t.co/ml5BW03LIF via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

AF-KLM

At first glance, the turnaround seems successful at AF-KLM, as evidenced by the attractive profit figures. However, that is mainly due to some one-off accounting windfalls. Regular operating profit for the past quarter was only €14 million.

Interesting at the carrier is now getting further and further. An extensive analysis of the Investor Desk provides the answer:

Air France-KLM makes a great turnaround IEX Premium https://t.co/EdvTumWvXf via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

Mercedes

The Mercedes Benz brand is and remains a very strong brand, but what about the listed share? Is the car manufacturer also attractive to investors seeking returns? The relatively high dividend yield, in combination with a substantial share buyback program seem to indicate this.

Another look at the Mercedes share can be found at IEX Premium:

Mercedes-Benz Group levert IEX Premium https://t.co/8levyibK4D via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

Vastned

Vastned property fund is strategically quite stuck and the question is what a reorientation of the strategy that has now started will yield investors. Also interesting: how does major shareholder Van Herk view the current situation regarding the real estate fund. An update from the Investor Desk:

Stirs Van Herk back at Vastned IEX Premium https://t.co/5IuX4gvoYQ via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

Bonds vs Stocks

The latest inflation figures from the US – both the cpi and the ppi – were nevertheless disappointing. Subsequently, the bond market immediately priced in higher Fed rates than previously expected. At the same time, US equity markets gave up remarkably little of their previous gains.

This raises the question of whether the bond markets are a little too gloomy or whether the equity markets wrongly choose to ignore the bad inflation news.

All the more reason for the Investor Desk to delve deeper into the matter for Premium members:

Stock market largely ignores disappointing inflation figures IEX Premium https://t.co/FfrrriqxDw via @IEXnl

— IEX Investors Desk (@Beleggersdesk) February 20, 2023

Not yet a Premium member and looking for extensive fundamental analyzes and background information? You can IEX Expert without charge three months for only €24.95 trying out.

That’s one one-time discount of 67%.

Then this one

Banks, they are sometimes like oil companies. At least, like the oil companies, better conditions are passed on to customers only with a delay. And not only in the Netherlands, it turns out.

The higher interest rates are only very rarely passed on to diligent savers in Germany:

Good Morning from Germany, where banks are not passing on the #ECB‘s higher interest rates to their customers. Savings banks and cooperative banks in particular continue to offer an avg of just 0.09% interest rates, even though ECB’s Deposit Rate for banks has now risen to 2.5%. pic.twitter.com/au4ypDtMLI

— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) February 20, 2023

Then this II

And speaking of oil, Opec+ will not be very happy with the current oil price, so it has no plans to reverse past production cuts, despite a slight increase in demand. However, Opec is also willing to show flexibility, something that certainly comes in handy when investing:

OPEC remains flexible and can alter its oil-production strategy if market conditions change, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says https://t.co/C9qUkGiPML

— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 20, 2023

Wall Street

In the US, Wall Street will be closed today, this time in observance of President’s Day.

Annuities

Also relative calm on the international interest markets and that has sometimes been different this year, but perhaps the calm before the storm.

Bron: Reuters

Broad market

There was also a lack of impulses from Wall Street in the broad market, so there were no really striking movements. The most striking outlier was a plus of approximately 1.5% for bitcoin and a revival of the VIX.

Bron: IEX.nl

The Damrak

• Adyen (+ 0.4%) has already recovered from the shock of the disappointing annual figures and has delivered a return of around 15% to Premium members in barely a week
• DSM (+ 1.1%) was not entirely convincing with its annual figures last week, but the fund has already fallen by just under 40% since the end of 2021, in other words, all this was considered priced in
• Philips (+1.8%) will keep investors in suspense over claims settlement in the US for some time to come, but the fund is steadily moving away from the lows
• ABN Amro (+ 0.2%) remains relatively good thanks to an improved interest rate climate, despite the Dutch state reducing its interest in the open market
• AMG (+ 1.7%) will report its figures later this week, the Investor Desk regularly reviews the fund
• Vopak (+ 2.6%) recently managed to convince with its annual figures and outlook ne is therefore creeping back above € 30
• accommodate (+ 2.0%) will publish its annual figures tomorrow and will hopefully provide more clarity about a claim received
• CM.com (-3.4%) remains out of favor after its unconvincing annual results and will have to work hard to restore investor confidence
• Vastned (-0.5%) is undergoing a strategic reorientation, investors will have to be patient
• On the local market Ajax (+2.2%) in both the Eredivisie and the Damrak
  

Advice (source: Guruwatch.nl)

• Philips: to €10 from €11 and sell – Deutsche Bank
• NN Group: to $45 from 43 and hold – JPMorgan Research
• Randstad: to €59 from €49 and keep – Citi Research
• RELX: down to £28.60 from £28.00 and buy – Credit Suisse
• ABN Amro: to €17.90 from €16.40 and hold – Morgan Stanley
• AF-KLM: to €1.00 from €0.85 and sell – Sanford C. Bernstein
• Alfen: down to $62 from $65 and selling – Jefferies
• Alfen: to €105 from €125 and buy – Berenberg
• Kinepolis: to €59 from €58 and buy – Berenberg

Schedule for February 13th

09:15 France manufacturing PMI Feb 50.9
09:15 France services PMI Feb 49.9
09:30 Germany manufacturing PMI Feb 47.8
09:30 Germany services PMI Feb 51.0
10:00 EU manufacturing PMI feb 49,3
10:00 EU services PMI feb 51,0
10:30 VK manufacturing PMI feb
10:30 VK services PMI feb
11:00 Germany ZEW economic sentiment Feb 22.0
1:00 PM Home Depot Q4 numbers
1:00 PM Walmart Q4 numbers
4:00 PM US sales of existing homes Jan 4.1M
10:00 PM eBay Q4 numbers