(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open with a moderate rise on Thursday, investors being careful not to take too many risks before the publication of the Eurozone PMI indices, the only day-long meeting that is coming up otherwise very calm due to the closure of Wall Street.
Around 8:15 a.m., the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – December delivery – nibbled 7.5 points to 7278.00, a harbinger of a start to the session without much change, continuing the trend of the last days.
Stakeholders are expected to be reluctant to take initiatives as US markets remain closed all day to celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday.
The rating could also be affected by fears of instability in the Eurozone in the wake of the victory of Geert Wilder’s populist, anti-EU PVV party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in the Netherlands.
The publication of the first results of the monthly purchasing managers’ surveys (PMI) on private sector activity in the euro zone economies will constitute the main highlight of the session.
After their sharp decline in the spring and summer, the PMIs seemed to show some signs of stabilization at the start of the school year, but their current level is undeniably associated with a contraction in activity.
‘A PMI falling a little below 50 points does not inevitably lead to a relapse into recession but it is a worrying signal’, however temper the analysts at Oddo BHF.
‘Last year, after the surge in energy prices, the composite PMI of the euro zone fell to 47.3, raising fears of a contraction of
activity’, they recall.
‘Six months later, the index had rebounded to 54.1 and real GDP was content to stagnate,’ add the private bank’s economists.
In the absence of Wall Street, good news could help European stocks make up for the underperformance they have suffered compared to American markets since the start of the year, with a discount which has now reached a record level by 35%.
‘The valuation of cyclical companies in Europe today includes a scenario of severe recession’, argue the Oddo teams.
The day will also be marked by the publication of the ‘minutes’ of the last ECB meeting, which ended in a ‘status quo’ last month after ten rate increases in a row.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei index posted a gain of 0.3% on Thursday at the end of the session, bringing its progression over the past month to almost 8%, thanks among other things to the good performance of Wall Street on Wednesday. .
Because the New York Stock Exchange ended in the green yesterday, supported by the technology sector in a market which notably had to digest the solid results published by Nvidia.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is recovering a little after having fallen significantly in recent weeks in reaction to the more cautious approach adopted by the Fed.
The euro is still nibbling 0.2% against the greenback, at 1.0910 dollars, but is currently showing a decline over the whole week.
On the bond market, the yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds remains at around 4.41% in view of the long Thanksgiving bridge. This rate had exceeded 5% last month.
The yield on the German Bund of the same maturity, which fell by 21 points over the past month, stood at 2.56%.
On the oil market, crude prices continue to show heaviness after the announcement of a new increase in American reserves last week, but above all because of the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting, which was scheduled for this weekend in Vienna.
The barrel of Brent fell by 1.2% to 81 dollars, while the barrel of American light crude (WTI) lost a little more than 1% to 76.3 dollars.
2023-11-23 07:31:00
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