There are hazards like l’Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal. But other phenomena more deeply disturb the global shipping since the end of 2020. Starting with a sharp increase in the purchase of goods caused by the coronavirus crisis.
Deprived for a year of outings, restaurants, trips, shows because of the coronavirus, consumers have fallen back on other expenses. In particular household appliances, IT, high-tech products …
Price increases to be expected
However, these goods are very often manufactured in Asia, causing congestion in ports and a shortage of containers to transport these objects.
As a result, shipping prices are skyrocketing, which will lead to higher prices, fueling speculation about high inflation in the coming months in the United States.
In a virtual conversation organized on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, Jerome Powell, President of the American Central Bank (Fed), however wanted to be reassuring: “We think the supply chain will adapt, and become more efficient, it might take a year, but it will happen. “
A temporary phenomenon
Until this return to normal, he expects prices to rise, which should only be temporary. “Many advanced economies around the world, at least over the past decade, have not been able to achieve 2% inflation [objectif de la Fed] some actually fighting against disinflation ”, he recalled.
With the reopening of the economy, “There may be a surge in demand, there may be bottlenecks”, he agreed, but “We think this effect will be temporary.”
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva, during the same discussion, indicated that the institution’s forecasts were in line with those of the Fed: “We are forecasting 2.25% inflation in the United States” in 2022, she said. The Fed expects 2.4% in 2021, then 2.0% in 2022 and 2.1% in 2023.
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