The most important thing about the NATO meeting in Madrid this week was that Turkey lifted its veto, in exchange for certain concessions, for Sweden and Finland to join the Atlantic defense treaty. Once again it is proven, in this way, that Vladimir Putin was wrong with his invasion of Ukraine, since that arbitrary, irrational and thuggish measure has resulted in a strengthening of the Atlantic Alliance. Both Sweden and Finland preserved their neutrality, which they have renounced out of fear, due to that absurd war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. None of these countries wants to be invaded by the neighboring giant.
But, perhaps, the most important news of these days has been the announcement by the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party, Nicola Sturgeon, that on October 19, 2023 the referendum will be held in which the Scots will vote if they want to become independent from England, something that was rejected six years ago, in June 2016, when a majority of Scots voted to continue the centuries-old alliance with England. The British government is radically opposed to this new referendum, for a very simple reason: the Scottish nationalists could win it this time. And for a very eloquent reason: Scotland is in favor of Europe, since it sells most of its products in the old continent and, in general, the victory of Brexit, that is, the separation of England from the European Union, in the referendum in which the current prime minister, Boris Johnson, after vacillating between both options, played a very important role. Since then, although there is still a majority of English in favor of this option, that difference has decreased, so that it can be said that either option could obtain victory. For England, obviously, this would be serious, apart from the fact that that separation has not brought the country the economic advantages (depending on the United States) that its supporters announced if the United Kingdom separated from Europe.
In this undoubtedly major episode, it is noted once again how Vladimir Putin’s initiative to invade Ukraine was hasty and has served, contrary to his calculations, to strengthen the Atlantic Alliance instead of weakening it. This has happened when NATO received a lot of criticism and there were even voices calling for its suppression. These days, no one would have such an idea: this Atlantic defense treaty is seen by the Central European countries as a guarantee that they will not be invaded by Russia and that, if they did, they would enjoy the unanimous military support of NATO.
Spanish nationalists, especially the Catalans, often resort to the example of Scotland and point out that both cases – that of Catalonia and that of Scotland – are identical. It’s not exact. Scotland was a properly formed and independent country until it was united with England in the 18th century (although those who have studied this point out that England did run a lot of money between those who defended the alliance). And in 2014, there was a consultation on independence that was carried out with all of the law. This has been beneficial for the two countries so far, but Brexit has opened a distance between them, which will undoubtedly end sooner or later in a referendum that will decide the membership of the Scottish land in Europe.
Incidentally, Brexit, one of the most absurd occurrences of the English prime minister, is far from being an option decided by a majority of English people, as shown by the choice of Scottish nationalists who believe that their time has come. Scotland was a perfectly formed country, with an independent government and several treaties with different countries, when it joined England, while Catalonia never (or rather, only for days or hours) ceased to be part of Spain and had as a foretaste of that independence demanded by the separatists, who, on the other hand, have never had the majority of the country in their favor.
But, let’s go to the heart of the matter, which is Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, accusing his government of being made up of a gang of Nazis and remembering that this country had always been linked to Russia; This would have many links with the Ukrainian past whose language a good part of the population considers as their own, since they speak and write in Russian. This argument is not strong, since it would mean that, for example, Haiti still belongs to France for historical and cultural reasons (Haiti belonged to France and its citizens speak French). There are many countries that have changed their status over the centuries, without the old capitals claiming something like ownership of those companies that have passed, at times, through many hands until they became independent. I repeat what I already said: Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and make him pay for his “disobedience” has been serious for the rest of the world, because an accident could happen from that decision that would lead the countries most committed to war action to resort to to atomic bombs. In fact, the Pope already considers that the third world war has begun. Let’s hope he’s wrong, because if he were, the whole world could burn, and many millions of human beings be its victims.
The worst thing about the current situation, which could worsen, is the bath of bombs that is falling on Ukraine and the number of deaths that occur in that corner of Europe. The consequences will undoubtedly be long-lasting and when the intemperances that have made this misunderstanding possible have been appeased, Russia and Ukraine will inevitably become enemies. There are already many deaths involved and the support of Europe and America for the Ukrainians, which seems to be very large, opens up a tension that could leave long wounds to heal. It is true that old sages, such as Kissinger, recommend that some concessions be made to Russia in order to end this war, but this will not be easy, not least because Ukraine, which has defended its integrity with great courage and with the help of all democratic countries, it will not easily resign itself to making that concession.
And meanwhile, people continue to die, not only in Ukraine, but also those hundreds or thousands of Russian soldiers who have been airlifted into a war they neither expected nor wanted.
The meeting in Madrid of the leaders of the NATO member countries can only have appeased those who, in this and other cases, are committed to the complete defeat of the enemy. In this circumstance there is no enemy that is worth, because Russia has atomic bombs and Putin himself could resort to this arsenal making the whole world experience a case of collective suicide. Of course Ukraine cannot be invaded under the pretext that it has a “Nazi” government; but the solution to this conflict, unless the world decides to put an end to its existence, passes through dialogue and -although it seems difficult at the moment- through the serenity of the parties. The conflict is already underway and there are many dead. Now we need a bit of common sense and for the main adversaries to agree on a formula that apparently seems to satisfy both of them, although this is not the case and there are always, as in any conflict that is resolved, winners and losers.
Madrid, June 2022.
© Mario Vargas Llosa, 2022.
World press rights in all languages reserved to Ediciones EL PAÍS, SL, 2022.
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