The European climate observatory warned this Tuesday that the last month was the hottest March ever recorded in the world and the tenth consecutive to break heat records with maximum temperatures that were also recorded in the oceans.
The Copernicus observatory, funded by the European Union, issued a new alarm signal after a year marked by extreme weather events and increased greenhouse gas emissions that sparked renewed calls for faster action against global warming.
1.5ºC limit
Monthly heat records have been happening since June 2023 and March has been no exception.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) indicated that the average temperature in March 2024 was 1.68 °C higher than that of a typical March during the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
Most alarming, however, has been the overall trend, said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.
Large areas of the planet endured above-average temperatures in March, from Africa to Greenland, passing through South America and Antarctica.
But not only was it the tenth consecutive month that it broke its own heat record, it also crowned the hottest 12-month period in history: 1.58ºC above pre-industrial averages.
This does not mean that the 1.5ºC warming limit agreed by world leaders at the Paris Climate Summit in 2015 and which is measured in decades, not years, has been exceeded.
However, “we are extraordinarily close, and already in extra time,” Burgess stressed to AFP.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the world is likely to exceed 1.5°C by the early 2030s.
Records on the surface of the oceans
The oceans are not saved.
After setting a surface temperature record in February, they reached new highs of 21.07 ºC in March, except for areas near the poles.
“It’s incredibly unusual,” Burgess warned.
Oceans cover 70% of the planet and have kept the Earth’s surface habitable by absorbing 90% of the excess heat produced by pollution from carbon emissions from human activity since the industrial era.
Warmer oceans threaten marine life and mean more moisture in the atmosphere, causing more unstable weather conditions such as violent winds or torrential rain.
“The more the global atmosphere warms, the more numerous, severe and intense extreme events will be,” said the scientist, citing the threat of “heat waves, droughts, floods and forest fires.”
Recent examples include water shortages in Vietnam, the Spanish region of Catalonia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Bogotá, the Colombian capital, will ration water supply starting Thursday, while in Mexico, shortages loom over the next presidential campaign. Russia, Brazil and France instead suffered major floods.
According to Copernicus, the El Niño phenomenon, which warms the sea surface in the Pacific Ocean and causes warmer weather around the world, continued to weaken in March.
But its “warming effect” alone does not explain the drastic spikes recorded last year, Burgess said. In addition, forecasts for the coming months continue to predict above-average temperatures, he added.
Scientific studies have not yet established the influence of climate change on each event.
But it has been established that global warming, by accentuating the loss of surface moisture, increases the intensity of certain precipitation episodes.
Will other records be broken in the coming months? “If we continue to see so much heat on the surface of the ocean (…) it is very likely,” warned Burgess.
Do these records exceed forecasts? The question is the subject of debate among climatologists after an extraordinary year 2023, the warmest year ever recorded.
This extra heat “we can explain to a large extent, but not completely,” Burgess summarized. “2023 is within the range predicted by climate models, but really at the outer limit”, far from the average, he added with concern.
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