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Map: Tropical Storm Debby’s track live

Debby was a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning, it said in its latest statement. warning the National Hurricane Center.

Debby had sustained winds of 105 kilometers per hour.

All times on the map are in Eastern Time.

Debby is the fourth named tropical storm to form in the Atlantic in 2024.

In late May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast there would be 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones this year, which is above normal.

What does the cyclone look like from above?

Satellite images can help determine the strength, size and cohesion of a tropical cyclone. The stronger a cyclone becomes, the more likely it is that an eye will form at its center. When the eye looks symmetrical, it usually means the cyclone has not encountered anything that weakens it.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

This season follows an extremely active year, with 20 named tropical cyclones, including one early storm that was later given the official name “Unnamed.” It was the eighth consecutive year to exceed the average of 14 named cyclones. Only one hurricane, Idalia, made landfall in the United States.

Typically, the El Niño pattern last season would have stifled hurricanes and reduced the number of tropical cyclones in a season. However, in 2023, warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures mitigated the usual effect El Niño has on cyclones.

The warm ocean temperatures that intensified last year’s hurricane season returned even warmer at the start of this season, increasing forecasters’ certainty that there would be more tropical cyclones this year. Rising sea surface temperatures could also strengthen cyclones more quickly than usual.

To make matters worse, the El Niño pattern present last year is also waning, which will most likely create a more suitable atmosphere for tropical cyclones to form and intensify.

Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and in the Atlantic, a strong El Niño increases the amount of wind shear — a change in wind speed and/or direction with height — which disrupts a tropical cyclone’s ability to form. In the absence of an El Niño this year, clouds are more likely to rise to the high altitudes needed to support a powerful cyclone.

Sources and notes

Tracking map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: Map shows probability of at least 5 percent. Forecasts are for up to five days, starting up to three hours before the storm is expected to make landfall. Wind speed probability data is not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.

Table of arrival times of the winds Sources: New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data (arrival times); U.S. Census Bureau and Natural Earth (geographic locations); Google (time zones) | Notes: The table shows forecast arrival times for damaging sustained winds of 57 mph (93 km/h) or greater at select cities where the damaging winds are likely to arrive. If damaging winds do arrive at a location, there is no more than a 10 percent chance of arrival before the “as soon as” time and a 50 percent chance of arrival before the “most likely” time.

Radar map Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Iowa State University | Notes: These mosaics are generated by combining the more than 130 individual radars that make up the NEXRAD network.

Storm surge map Source: National Hurricane Center | Notes: Actual areas that could be flooded may differ from the areas shown on this map. This map accounts for tides, but not waves or rainfall-related flooding. The map also includes intertidal zones, which are often flooded during regular high tides.

Satelital map Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | Notes: Imagery is only updated between sunrise and sunset of the cyclone’s last known location.

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