“Manufacturing PMI Slightly Falls, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Expands: May 2023 Data Analysis”

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 31st Topic: Manufacturing PMI fell slightly, non-manufacturing business activity index continued to expand—focus on May PMI data

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Wei Hongyi

The Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on May 31. In May, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 48.8% , 54.5% and 52.9%, 0.4, 1.9 and 1.5 percentage points lower than last month, the level of economic prosperity has dropped, and the foundation for recovery and development still needs to be consolidated.

Restoring and expanding demand is the key to the sustained recovery of the current economy. The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on April 28 pointed out that “the current improvement in my country’s economic operation is mainly restorative, the endogenous driving force is not strong, and the demand is still insufficient.” The first meeting of the 20th Central Finance and Economics Committee held on May 5 emphasized that “organically combine the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the strategy of innovation-driven development.”

Judging from the development of the manufacturing industry, the problem of insufficient market demand is still prominent. In May, the new order index was 48.3%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, running below 50% for two consecutive months. According to the enterprise survey, the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand is 58.8%.

“Insufficient market demand has led to a slowdown in the production activities of enterprises, and the purchase of raw materials by enterprises has correspondingly decreased.” Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said that in May, the production index was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.

According to expert analysis, as a leading indicator of economic operation, the decline in the manufacturing PMI indicates that the economic recovery momentum is insufficient. However, judging from the changes in the comprehensive sub-index, the new momentum has stabilized and picked up. Business expectations are relatively optimistic, and there is a foundation for continued recovery.

——The prosperity level of some key industries has picked up, and the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones has been accelerated.

In May, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 50.4%, 50.5% and 50.8% respectively, 0.3, 1.2 and 1 percentage points higher than the previous month, showing different degrees of expansion from the previous month.

“Judging from the index trend since this year, the traditional basic raw material industry is in a continuous downward trend, while new kinetic energy such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintains a steady upward trend, and the conversion of old and new kinetic energy is accelerating.” Wen Tao said.

——The cost pressure of enterprises continues to ease, and market confidence is generally stable.

Affected by factors such as the recent continuous decline in the prices of some bulk commodities and weak market demand, in May, the purchase price index of major raw materials was 40.8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous month, and fell to a recent low. In addition, the proportion of enterprises reflecting high logistics costs continued to decline.

In May, the production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and remained above 54% for five consecutive months. In terms of industries, among the 21 industries surveyed, 16 industries’ production and business activity expectation indexes are in the expansion range.

Since the beginning of this year, with the rapid and stable transition of epidemic prevention and control, the accelerated recovery of production and living order, and the continuous efforts to stabilize investment, promote consumption and stabilize employment, the non-manufacturing industry, especially the service industry, has accelerated its recovery and development. In May, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.5%, which was 1.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but the index level was still relatively high.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the business activity index of the service industry from February to April this year was in a relatively high boom range for three consecutive months. 6.7 percentage points in the same period last year.

From the perspective of the industry, driven by the “May 1st” festival effect, tourism and offline consumption are relatively active. In May, the business activity indexes of railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering and other industries were all in the relatively high boom range of above 55%. ; The new kinetic energy industry of the service industry is developing well, and the business activity indexes of industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet software and information technology services are all in the high-level boom range above 60%.

Enterprises in the service industry continue to be optimistic about the recovery and development of the market. In May, the business activity expectation index of the service industry was 60.1%, maintaining a high level of prosperity, and all industries surveyed were in the expansion range.

The construction industry’s high level callback. In May, the business activity index of the construction industry was 58.2%, 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but still in a relatively high economic range. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 62.1%, which continues to be in the high-level boom range above 60%.

In May, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%. Although it declined somewhat, it continued to stay in the boom range, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to recover and develop.

“The next step should be to focus on implementing all aspects of comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, significantly strengthening the driving role of government investment in investment in the whole society, continuously improving the policy effect of expanding domestic demand, and relying on the overall recovery of demand to drive an overall economic recovery.” Development Research Center of the State Council Researcher Zhang Liqun said.

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责编：杨煜 ]