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Gunners fancied to avoid defeat at the Etihad
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Haaland and Saka can play starring roles
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At least four cards included in 33/1 Bet Builder
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The outright odds on the sportsbook suggest this match could help decide the destination of the Premier League title
That was the case last season, with the two points Arsenal dropped at the Etihad Stadium ultimately being the difference between first and second place.
Once again, there is little between the two this year with favourites Manchester City at 1/1while second favourites Arsenal are 13/8. That’s a difference of just 11.9% in terms of implied probability.
In the league, just one place and two points separate the two teams ahead of what looks like a great match.
Gunners good for at least a point
It is admittedly hard to find weaknesses in the winning machine that Pep Guardiola has created at Manchester City. Four consecutive Premier League titles don’t come if you’re no good.
City are the only team in the division that has maintained a 100% record after four matches and, stretching into last season, they have now won 13 league games on the spin.
But there are few teams against whom City have met their match like the Gunners over the last season.
What this suggests is that – at long last – Arsenal have found an effective way of playing against Manchester City.
Manchester City haven’t faced the same standard of opposition in the league but, having been held by Manchester United (inside 90 minutes) and Inter in other competitions, there is a body of evidence to suggest that there could be something in this for the visitors.
With both teams coming off the back of their Champions League opener, it is also interesting that Arsenal won seven of their 10 matches last season off the back of a European match, including a home victory over Guardiola’s side.
City, meanwhile, managed four victories in the same number of matches, while both meetings between these sides came after a Champions League game for both teams.
Despite this, Manchester City haven’t lost at home in any competition since a 2-1 defeat against Brentford in November 2022. So while it is difficult to get behind a home defeat, Arsenal look good value in the double chance market at 10/11.
City will put up a fight
There was only one goal across both league fixtures between these teams last season, but this season’s data suggests we could see a few more on Sunday.
Manchester City have seen an average of 2.67 goals per game in the league and come into this fixture in fine attacking form, top-scoring in the division with 11 goals. They have also had the second-most shots (66), most shots on target (25), have the best xG (9.28) and second-best conversion rate (16.67%).
While Arsenal have only conceded one goal so far this season, which came against Brighton last month following Declan Rice’s red card, they have allowed the eighth-most shots in the division. That means that just 1.75% of the shots they have faced have ended in a goal, which seems unsustainable even with keeper David Raya performing heroics. For context, 10.34% of the shots Manchester City have faced have gone in.
With the hosts having also failed to keep a clean sheet since their opening-day victory over Chelsea, over 2.5 goals looks a good bet at 19/20.
Beating Guardiola’s selection roulette
Guardiola rotates his team more than most and, because of that, it can sometimes be difficult to know who to expect in his starting XI. This season, just Ederson and Manuel Akanji have played every minute of every match. Arsenal, meanwhile, have six ever-present players in the league.
One player we can be confident will start is striker Erling Haaland, who has scored nine goals in four league games.
That scoring run includes back-to-back hat tricks against Ipswich and West Ham and a match-winning brace against Brentford in his last three appearances.
It’s rare that Haaland is ever odds-against in the anytime market, so the
11/10 available here could be one of the prices of the week. A goal here would take him to 100 overall for Man City and set a new record as the quickest player to hit double figures in a PL season.
Elsewhere, Jeremy Doku is worth a look in the score or assist market at 9/5.
The flying Belgian winger has carried the ball 747.8 metres so far in the league this season, which is at least 80 more than any other player despite only playing in three of City’s four league games. He also ranks second in the Premier League for progressive carries (64).
Should he get the nod on Sunday, it isn’t hard to see how he could cause some chaos in the opposition penalty area.
Set-piece kings to have their say
Arsenal’s 1-0 victory over Tottenham last weekend came thanks to a Gabriel Magalhaes header from a corner. That was Arsenal’s 24th set-piece goal since the start of the 2023-24 season – three more than any other team.
It’s no surprise that they also rank first for headed goals in the same timeframe, with 19.
At 14/1Gabriel should be of interest again in the goalscorer market. The centre back has had three shots so far this season, all of which came inside the penalty area – a total only beaten by Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.
The Brazilian has also registered an average xG of 0.15 per shot, which is the second-highest of any Arsenal player.
At 5/1Saka should also be considered in the anytime assist market. The 23-year-old put the cross in for Gabriel’s winner last weekend and ranks equal-first in the league for assists with four in four matches. Crucially, he is also on corners.
Manchester is… yellow
Finally, it’s worth mentioning the prospect of a few cards given that there have been plenty shown in recent Premier League matches.
There has been an average of 4.9 bookings per game in 2024-25, way above the next-highest figure of 4.2 per game last season.
Michael Oliver takes charge of this match, having given out eight yellow cards in Liverpool v Nottingham Forest last time out. Oliver has issued 21 bookings in his four league games this season at an average of 5.25 per match.
Taking that into account, and the fact that the two league meetings between these teams last season produced seven bookings, over 3.5 cards looks good at 4/9.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have given away 55 fouls in their four league games – the third-most in the Premier League. That averages out at 13.75 per match and they are available at 6/5 to give away 13 or more fouls against Manchester City.
Thomas Partey has given away the equal-most fouls in the Arsenal squad (eight) and been booked once, while he also gave away a penalty on Thursday against Atalanta in the Champions League. He is 11/5 to pick up another yellow card.
Based on all we’ve said, we like the following Bet Builder which is available to back at 33/1 on the sportsbook.
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