Understanding the Sahel Crisis: A New Book Offers Insights
The Sahel region of Africa is facing a complex and multifaceted security crisis. A new book, “Insecurity in the Sahel: Getting Out of the Crisis,” offers a detailed analysis of this volatile situation and proposes potential paths toward stability. Authored by Mamadou Mouth Bane and published by Le Carré Culturel, the 203-page work provides a comprehensive overview of the crisis’s origins, dynamics, and potential solutions.
the book’s preface, written by Professor Ismaïla Madior Fall, a former Minister of Justice and Foreign Affairs, lends an significant institutional and academic outlook to bane’s analysis. Bane is also the author of several other works on organized crime and terrorism in the Sahel, including “Organized Crime in the Sahel,” “Senegalese in Boko Haram,” and “Fighting Terrorism and crime in the Sahel.” This body of work establishes his expertise on the subject.
key Themes Explored in “Insecurity in the Sahel”
- Historical Context and Current Situation: The book begins by tracing the roots of instability in the Sahel,examining key countries like Mali,Burkina Faso,Niger,Chad,and Libya,where insecurity has taken deep root.
- Terrorist Groups in the Sahel: Bane identifies key areas of insecurity, from Nigeria’s Sambisa Forest to the Tindouf camps in Algeria, and regions like the Liptako-Gourma and the W National Park in West Africa, which serve as havens for armed groups.
- Re-evaluating Algeria’s Approach: The author analyzes Algerian initiatives such as the Tamanrasset Plan and the Algiers Agreement, advocating for a revision of these unilateral approaches to better address the region’s security challenges.
- Morocco’s Inclusive Community Approach: This section highlights Morocco’s efforts in deradicalization, food security, access to water and energy, and impactful economic projects like Dakhla atlantique.
- The complex Role of Major Powers: Bane dissects the conflicting interests and implications of major global powers in the region, highlighting their impact on local stability. This analysis resonates with similar concerns about great power competition in other global hotspots.
- Building a New Security Cooperation: The author explores opportunities for balanced North-South collaboration, emphasizing the importance of strengthened South-South cooperation, exemplified by the Sahel states Alliance (AES) and necessary reforms within ECOWAS. This focus on regional cooperation mirrors accomplished strategies employed in other parts of the world.
Bane’s work offers a timely and crucial contribution to understanding the complexities of the Sahel crisis. By examining the historical context, the role of various actors, and potential solutions, the book provides valuable insights for policymakers, researchers, and anyone interested in the future of this strategically importent region. The book’s call for increased regional cooperation and a more nuanced approach to addressing the crisis offers a roadmap for potential solutions, highlighting the need for a multifaceted strategy that addresses both the security and progress challenges facing the Sahel.
Sahel Instability: A Call for Collaborative Security solutions
The Sahel region, a vast swathe of land south of the Sahara Desert, faces a complex web of interconnected challenges: political instability, escalating insecurity, and the rise of extremist groups. These issues hinder economic development and threaten regional stability, demanding a comprehensive and collaborative approach to security.
A recent analysis highlights the urgent need for a new paradigm of security cooperation, one that prioritizes collaboration between Sahel nations, their neighbors, and international partners. The report emphasizes that sustainable solutions require addressing both the political and security dimensions of the crisis concurrently. “it is extremely arduous for a poor country to simultaneously open two fronts, which, in the long term, risk weakening state resources,” the report states, underscoring the interconnectedness of political and security challenges.
The report argues that internal political reconciliation is paramount before meaningful progress on security can be achieved. “In Mali, Niger, Burkina faso, guinea, and elsewhere, the political class and the military in power must agree on a roadmap to overcome these political crises,” the analysis emphasizes. This internal stability is crucial for attracting and maintaining the trust of international development partners. “Development partners will onyl be reassured and motivated when they have legitimate governments capable of carrying out long-term projects in front of them,” the report explains.
The report further stresses the importance of creating a stable economic and security habitat to achieve economic emergence and successful international cooperation plans. “African countries must create a stable economic and security business environment to achieve the objectives of economic emergence and succeed in international cooperation plans,” it concludes, highlighting the critical link between security and economic prosperity.This resonates with U.S. foreign policy interests in promoting stability and economic growth in strategically important regions.
The implications for the United States are significant.U.S. foreign policy initiatives in the Sahel region,including counterterrorism efforts and development aid,are directly impacted by the ongoing instability. A collaborative, regionally-driven approach to security, as advocated in the report, could enhance the effectiveness of U.S. engagement and contribute to long-term stability in the region.
the report’s call for a new era of cooperation underscores the need for a multifaceted strategy that addresses the root causes of instability while fostering sustainable solutions. Only through a concerted effort involving regional governments, international partners, and local communities can the Sahel region hope to achieve lasting peace and prosperity.
Sahel Alliance: A New Power Bloc Emerges in Africa
A new alliance is reshaping the political landscape of the Sahel region in Africa. Mali, Burkina Faso, and niger have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a move that signals a potential shift in regional power dynamics and raises questions about the future of Western involvement in the area.
The AES, encompassing an area of approximately 1,076,000 square miles and a population exceeding 69 million, faces significant challenges. Beyond security concerns, the alliance grapples with development issues, particularly a critical energy crisis. The formation of the AES represents a concerted effort by these nations to address these challenges independently.
the strategic direction of the AES,now transitioning into a confederation,demonstrates a commitment to collective action. This self-reliance is a notable departure from previous reliance on Western partners. “A responsible state shoudl not outsource its security to a foreign power,” a sentiment echoed by many within the alliance.
A key milestone occurred on May 17,2024,when foreign ministers from Mali,Burkina Faso,and niger met to finalize the framework for the AES confederation. This ministerial conclave, preceding a summit of heads of state, focused on institutionalizing and operationalizing the alliance. This represents a significant step towards political and socio-economic integration among the three nations.
The vision for the AES is shared by the transitional leaders of each nation: Captain Ibrahim Traoré (Burkina Faso), Colonel Assimi Goïta (Mali), and Brigadier General Abdourahamane Tiani (niger). The alliance is open to other countries sharing its ideals.Early attempts to include Guinea were made,but Conakry remains undecided.
In a speech at the 15th session of the OIC conference in Banjul on May 4-5, 2024, Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop highlighted the successes of the Malian army in northern Mali, specifically mentioning the recapture of Kidal. “The Malian army’s successes in the north, including the recapture of Kidal, demonstrate our commitment to securing our territory,” Diop stated.
The formation of the AES has significant implications for the region and the broader international community. The alliance’s focus on self-reliance and its potential impact on existing partnerships will be closely watched by global powers. The long-term success of the AES will depend on its ability to address the complex challenges facing the Sahel region,including security,development,and governance.
Sahel Alliance Shifts Eastward: A Pivot Away from Western Influence
The Sahel Alliance (AES), a regional bloc comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, is dramatically reshaping its foreign policy, signaling a significant departure from its previous reliance on Western partners. This shift, marked by closer ties with Russia and a rejection of French-led initiatives, has profound implications for regional security and the broader geopolitical landscape.
The AES’s formation, according to Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop, aimed to “establish an architecture of collective defense and mutual assistance to more effectively combat terrorist groups and external threats, while promoting the development of the three states for the benefit of our populations.” However, the alliance has effectively declared the demise of the G5 Sahel, a French-backed initiative, reflecting a growing disillusionment with Western involvement in the region.
This distancing from Paris is evident in the denunciation of defense agreements and the recall of ambassadors, including the French ambassador to Niger. At a November 30, 2023, meeting of AES foreign ministers, Diop emphasized the need for “seamless coordination and close collaboration” in addressing security challenges. He stated,”The prevention and management of security challenges require seamless coordination and close collaboration. We must be proactive in preserving peace and stability,while promoting peaceful and diplomatic means to resolve any conflicts that may arise.”
However, Diop also highlighted the AES’s broader ambitions beyond security, emphasizing its aspiration to become a hub for economic development. He celebrated the break from “certain toxic partnerships,” asserting, “Nearly two years after the departure of Operation Barkhane and Task Force Takuba, Mali is more than ever standing tall and free, I would even say liberated. It is certainly no coincidence that the valiant Malian forces have regained control of the Kidal region and city, achieving a feat that 10 years of international presence failed to accomplish.”
While South-South cooperation is encouraged, the AES recognizes the need for broader international engagement. The Sahel nations cannot ignore the effects of globalization, requiring open, diverse, and unconstrained cooperation—both South-South and North-South. the AES aims to assert its political will and vision upon its European, American, and Russian partners, recognizing that nations ultimately defend their own interests and that blind alignment carries risks.
The AES, a landlocked confederation, also faces the strategic challenge of lacking a coastline. The addition of Guinea was intended to address this limitation, opening up new avenues for trade and economic development.
The AES’s pivot towards Russia and away from traditional Western allies represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Sahel. The long-term consequences of this realignment remain to be seen, but it undoubtedly raises questions about the future of regional stability and the role of external powers in the region.
Niger Charts Post-Withdrawal Course, Embracing Moroccan-Led Initiative
As foreign troops withdraw from Niger, the nation is charting a new course toward self-determination and regional economic growth. A key element of this strategy is the embrace of a significant initiative spearheaded by Morocco,aiming to unlock the Sahel region’s vast potential. This initiative, announced on November 6, 2023, has garnered strong support from several Sahel nations, including Niger, Mali, Burkina faso, and Chad.
The initiative, detailed at a recent Marrakech meeting attended by Moroccan Foreign Minister nasser bourita and his counterparts from the Sahel region, focuses on fostering sustainable and inclusive economic development. Minister Bourita emphasized Morocco’s commitment to the Sahel, stating, “While forces of evil, such as terrorist groups, separatist movements, and other disruptive factors, seek to regionalize their threat, there is no reason why the forces of good cannot also promote regional growth.”
The meeting underscored a shared vision for regional prosperity. Mali’s Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop voiced Bamako’s strong support,highlighting the initiative’s alignment with the goals of the Sahel Alliance and its potential to leverage Mali’s resources and modernize its infrastructure. He stressed the importance of investing in infrastructure and promoting free movement of people to create conditions conducive to peace, security, and economic growth, particularly for young people.
Niger’s Foreign Minister, Bakary Yaou Sangaré, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the imperative for Niger to take control of its destiny following the departure of foreign forces. “He expressed unwavering support for the Royal Initiative, underscoring its importance,” a statement from the meeting confirmed.
The Moroccan initiative offers a comprehensive approach, perhaps addressing critical infrastructure needs and fostering regional trade.While details remain to be fully fleshed out, the strong backing from several Sahel nations suggests a significant step towards regional cooperation and self-sufficiency. The initiative’s success will depend on effective implementation and continued collaboration among participating nations.
The long-term implications for the Sahel region and its relationship with the international community remain to be seen. However, the initiative represents a bold attempt to address the complex challenges facing the region and foster a path towards sustainable development and lasting peace.
New Atlantic Port in Dakhla to Revolutionize Sahel Trade and Development
A major new port in Dakhla, Morocco, is poised to transform the economic landscape of the Sahel region, offering landlocked nations crucial access to the Atlantic Ocean. The initiative, spearheaded by King Mohammed VI of Morocco, is designed to stimulate economic growth, improve connectivity, and ultimately combat the spread of terrorism in the region.
The project has garnered significant support from Sahel nations. Niger’s Minister Sangaré highlighted the initiative’s alignment with the Sahel Alliance’s goals of establishing security, implementing viable economic policies, and developing effective monetary policy. He emphasized the project’s unique ability to address the shortcomings of other African organizations in driving integrated growth. “This project perfectly integrates into this dynamic and represents a response to the inability of other African organizations to drive growth based on a clear and integrated vision,” Sangaré stated.
Burkina Faso’s Minister of Foreign affairs, Karamoko Jean Marie Traoré, praised king Mohammed VI’s initiative, emphasizing its deep understanding of the Sahel’s challenges. He underscored the importance of sea access for landlocked Burkina Faso, highlighting the values of solidarity and the right of landlocked countries to access maritime trade. Minister Traoré also lamented persistent misconceptions about the Sahel, stating, “Those who speak of it often misunderstand the reality of the region.”
Chad’s Ambassador to Morocco, Hassan Adoum Bakhit Haggar, representing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, expressed strong support for the initiative. He noted the Sahel’s change since 2013 from a hub of economic and cultural exchange into a breeding ground for terrorist groups and illicit activities. “For Chad, it is indeed imperative to foster these development initiatives,” Haggar said. He added that such projects are crucial for creating jobs and progress, directly countering the appeal of terrorist groups who frequently enough target vulnerable youth.
Ambassador Haggar emphasized the pivotal role of the future Dakhla Atlantique port, stating, “This future port will be a source of pride for Africa.”
The Dakhla port project is more than just infrastructure; it represents a strategic investment in regional stability and prosperity. By facilitating trade and economic development, the initiative aims to create opportunities and empower communities, ultimately undermining the influence of extremist groups. The project’s success could serve as a model for similar initiatives in other regions facing similar challenges.
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african Sahel Alliance Expands Military Cooperation, Including Chad and Togo
The African Sahel Alliance (AES), a regional security initiative focused on countering terrorism and instability in the Sahel region, has significantly expanded its military cooperation to include Chad and Togo, despite neither country being a formal member. This move underscores the growing concern about regional security and the AES’s commitment to bolstering the capabilities of its partner nations.
Joint military exercises, codenamed “Tarhanakale,” recently took place at the Tillia special Forces Training Center in Niger. These exercises involved armed forces from Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Togo. The drills focused on enhancing operational readiness to address a range of potential threats, including terrorism and cross-border crime.
The inclusion of Chad and Togo, while not yet formal AES members, highlights a shared commitment to regional stability. “Even though these two countries haven’t formally joined the AES politically, they share our objectives,” a source close to the AES stated. This collaborative approach suggests a pragmatic strategy focused on practical cooperation rather than strict adherence to formal membership requirements.
the AES’s expansion of military cooperation has significant implications for the U.S., which has a vested interest in stability in the Sahel region. The region’s instability poses a threat to U.S. national security interests, including the potential for increased terrorism and migration. The AES’s efforts to strengthen regional security forces can be seen as a valuable partner in addressing these challenges.
The U.S. government has provided significant support to counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel region through various programs and initiatives. The AES’s expanded military cooperation could potentially enhance the effectiveness of these efforts, creating a more coordinated and robust response to regional threats. further analysis is needed to fully assess the long-term impact of this development on U.S. national security interests.
This strategic partnership underscores the growing importance of regional collaboration in addressing complex security challenges. The AES’s proactive approach, including the engagement of Chad and Togo, demonstrates a commitment to building a more secure and stable Sahel region.
Chad Bolsters Anti-Terrorism Efforts through Regional Cooperation
Faced with escalating threats from armed groups in the volatile Sahel region, Chad has intensified its counterterrorism strategy by forging closer security ties with its neighbors, Niger and Libya. This collaborative approach underscores the growing recognition that regional cooperation is crucial in combating the spread of extremism.
The initiative, driven by concerns about terrorist groups pushing towards the Atlantic Ocean, aims to coordinate strategic plans and engage local populations. The effort reflects a shared struggle among nations in the Sahel region, including Chad, Niger, and others, against a common enemy: terrorism.
Reports indicate that the Tillia Special Forces training center, a key component of this strategy, has received significant support. Funding from germany,starting in July 2021,and military equipment valued at $14.6 million from the United States have bolstered the center’s capabilities. The center itself has been the target of attempted takeovers by ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliated groups, highlighting the critical nature of its role in regional security.
The escalating threat necessitates a multi-pronged approach. Sahel nations are increasingly recognizing the need for joint military operations in high-risk areas,particularly in the often ungoverned ”gray zones.” A multinational force, comprising Chad, Cameroon, Niger, Benin, and Nigeria, has already been established to address this challenge. This force, which conducted Operation “Lake Sanity 2” from April 23, 2024, has focused on securing strategic locations in the Lake Chad region. General Ibrahim sallau Ali recently presented a detailed report outlining the operation’s successes.
However, challenges remain. The potential for reduced operational capacity due to shifting alliances and decreased international support is a significant concern. The United States has historically provided significant funding for military operations in Africa,such as Flintlock,aimed at strengthening African armies. The Task Force Takuba also played a significant role. To effectively counter the terrorist threat, Sahel nations require advanced early warning systems, enhanced surveillance capabilities, and improved border control technologies. African armed forces frequently enough lack the necessary technological edge in this fight, necessitating advanced training and sophisticated equipment for data analysis and interpretation.
The need for South-South cooperation is evident. The recent offensives by the FACT (Front for Alternance and Concord in Chad) on Chadian territory prompted the government to seek closer collaboration with Libya and Niger to secure its northern and western borders. This underscores the importance of regional partnerships in addressing shared security challenges. “The Chad government reached out to Libyan and Nigerien authorities to secure its northern and western borders,” a government official stated. “Furthermore, Chad sought support from its Nigerien and Libyan neighbors.”
the situation in the sahel highlights the complex interplay of regional instability,terrorism,and the need for international cooperation. The success of Chad’s strategy will depend on sustained regional collaboration and continued international support.
Chad’s Potential Shift in Alliances: Implications for the Sahel and U.S. Interests
Chad’s recent diplomatic overtures toward Russia are raising eyebrows and prompting speculation about a potential realignment of regional power dynamics in the Sahel. This shift could have significant implications for the ongoing fight against terrorism and for U.S. interests in the region.
The G5 Sahel Joint Force, a multinational counterterrorism initiative involving Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Chad, has faced numerous challenges.The growing influence of Russia in the region, particularly in Mali and now potentially Chad, adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. This is especially true given the ongoing conflicts and the transnational nature of terrorist groups operating across borders.
Chad’s President Mahamat idriss Déby Itno’s January 23, 2024, visit to Russia at the invitation of President Vladimir Putin is seen by some as a significant development. This visit, just four months before Chad’s presidential election, fuels speculation about a possible secret agreement between Moscow and Déby, potentially at the expense of France, a long-time ally of Chad.
“If the young chadian president accepted this invitation from Moscow,four months before the presidential election,it is because he must have suspected a secret agreement behind his back,between Paris and his main opponent,Succès Masra,” a source familiar with the situation noted. This alleged secret agreement highlights the intense geopolitical maneuvering taking place in the region.
Further fueling these concerns is the visit of Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to N’djamena on June 6, 2024, where he met with President Déby. This diplomatic offensive underscores Russia’s growing engagement across various sectors of the Chadian economy.
The implications extend beyond Chad. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been significantly impacted by the actions of the G5 Sahel countries. The strategy to combat insecurity in the Sahel cannot be confined to a limited geographical area, especially given the transnational nature of the threat, stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea. The fragmented approach of the G5 Sahel and ECOWAS weakens their collective ability to counter unified terrorist groups employing transnational warfare tactics.
“There are no terrorist groups that are limited exclusively within the geographical boundaries of the G5 Sahel, and there are no jihadists confined solely to the ECOWAS space. Armed groups are united and supportive in their criminal actions,” a security analyst explained, emphasizing the interconnected nature of the threat.
The potential shift in Chad’s alliances has significant implications for the U.S., which has invested heavily in counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. A closer relationship between Chad and Russia could alter the regional security landscape, potentially impacting U.S. strategic interests and requiring a reassessment of counterterrorism strategies.
Further analysis and monitoring of the situation are crucial to understanding the full implications of Chad’s evolving geopolitical position and its impact on regional stability and U.S.interests in the Sahel.
West African Security: A Crossroads of Cooperation and Conflict
The Sahel region of West Africa is grappling with a complex web of security challenges, further complicated by a growing rift between the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance for the Sahel (AES). This division threatens to undermine crucial efforts to combat terrorism and instability, particularly the ongoing fight against Boko Haram.
The AES, comprised of Mali, niger, and Burkina Faso, has increasingly distanced itself from ECOWAS, citing concerns about the association’s response to their respective military coups. ECOWAS, adhering to its charter which rejects unconstitutional changes in government, has imposed sanctions on these nations. This has led to accusations from the AES juntas that ECOWAS is acting at the behest of France, a long-time partner in the region’s counterterrorism efforts.
“The AES countries have become radicalized by the creation of the Confederation, announcing a definitive break with ECOWAS,” explains one analyst.“The Malian junta, for example, has repeatedly accused Paris of dictating sanctions against these military regimes.” This perception fuels the AES’s move away from ECOWAS, potentially opening the door to increased influence from other global powers.
The potential for a proxy war between France and Russia in the region is a significant concern. While accusations of French control over ECOWAS persist, the AES’s growing ties with Moscow are equally apparent.“The leaders of the AES and ECOWAS are losing by engaging in a proxy Cold War that would benefit the great powers,” warns a regional expert. This escalating tension risks diverting resources and attention away from the critical task of combating terrorism.
The Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), a vital organization in the fight against Boko Haram, has been significantly impacted by this division. The African Union played a key role in strengthening security cooperation around the Lake Chad Basin, and the LCBC’s effectiveness hinges on regional collaboration. The recent summit in Lomé highlighted the need for increased information sharing between ECOWAS and the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) to revitalize organizations like the LCBC.
The question remains: how can these regional organizations overcome their differences and prioritize collective security? The current trajectory risks undermining regional stability and empowering terrorist groups. A renewed commitment to cooperation, addressing the political concerns of the AES within the framework of democratic principles, is crucial for a unified front against the shared threat of terrorism and instability in the Sahel.
Sahel Instability: Will the Alliance Sahel Follow the G5 Sahel’s Fate?
The Sahel region,a vast swathe of land south of the Sahara Desert,is grappling with a deepening crisis. Years of conflict, fueled by terrorism and political instability, have left millions displaced and struggling for survival. The recent failures of regional security initiatives, such as the G5 Sahel, raise serious questions about the effectiveness of international efforts to stabilize the region and the future of the Alliance Sahel, a key player in providing humanitarian aid.
The G5 Sahel, a joint military force comprising Burkina faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, was designed to combat terrorism and transnational crime. However, it has been plagued by internal strife, military coups, and a lack of effective coordination. “The G5 Sahel, in full flight, has plunged into a zone of turbulence, losing all its capabilities,” explains one expert. Several factors contributed to its downfall, including the exclusion of neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Morocco, Algeria, Senegal, and Cameroon, a critical oversight given the borderless nature of the terrorist threat. The exclusion of Benin, Togo, Ghana, Guinea, and the Central African Republic further hampered its effectiveness. “Terrorists, like the COVID-19 virus, ignore borders,” the expert notes. The military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, along with the death of chadian President Idriss Déby, further destabilized the organization, leaving it largely ineffective.
The Alliance Sahel, a separate initiative backed by France and the United States, focused on development and humanitarian aid. It launched programs aimed at improving access to water and electricity, as well as providing training opportunities in border communities across Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania. However, the success of these programs is now in jeopardy given the ongoing instability. The fear is that “the Alliance Sahel will suffer the same fate” as the G5 Sahel.
The situation highlights the need for a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to addressing the multifaceted challenges facing the Sahel.Experts emphasize the importance of regional cooperation, involving all affected countries, and a strategy that addresses both security and development needs. The failure of the G5 Sahel serves as a stark reminder of the complexities involved in stabilizing conflict-ridden regions and the need for long-term, sustainable solutions. The future of the Alliance Sahel, and the well-being of millions in the region, hangs in the balance.
Sahel’s Shifting Sands: G5 Sahel’s Demise and the Rise of the AES
The G5 Sahel,a regional counterterrorism force established in 2014,is facing a dramatic unraveling. Its decline reflects a complex interplay of military coups, shifting geopolitical alliances, and a growing influence from outside powers. The situation has significant implications for regional stability and U.S. interests in the Sahel.
The core members of the G5 Sahel – Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania, and Chad – initially aimed to collaboratively combat the escalating threat of terrorism and instability. Though, recent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have dramatically altered the landscape. These nations have largely abandoned the G5 Sahel, leaving it effectively defunct.
The Alliance for the Sahel (AES), a separate organization, has emerged as a key player in this power shift. With the military leadership of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger now aligned with the AES, the G5 Sahel is left with only a skeleton crew awaiting a new mandate. This realignment underscores a growing divergence from Western partners, including France and the United States, who were major funders of the G5 Sahel.
The creation of the “Coalition for the Sahel” in 2020,announced at a summit in Pau,France,attempted to address the crisis. This initiative, backed by various international organizations including the UN and the EU, aimed for a more unified and supportive response to the sahel’s challenges. “The gravity of the crisis in the Sahel,the sense of urgency,and the scale of the needs require stronger,more united action,” stated the summit’s organizers. They emphasized that the Coalition was “a powerful signal of solidarity with the sahelian states.”
though, the Coalition’s goals of enhanced international visibility and sustained support have been overshadowed by the recent political upheavals. The Coalition’s leader, Hamadi Ould Meimou, assumed his position on September 27, 2023, inheriting a significantly weakened organization.
The shift towards the AES represents a significant geopolitical realignment. The rejection of the coups by Paris and its allies has driven the AES to distance itself from the G5 Sahel, leaving the latter’s future uncertain. While the G5 Sahel had implemented promising economic programs, the military leadership’s migration to the AES leaves the organization’s future in doubt.
The implications for the United States are significant. The instability in the Sahel region creates a breeding ground for terrorism, impacting U.S. national security interests. The decline of the G5 Sahel and the rise of the AES necessitate a reassessment of U.S. strategy in the region,requiring a careful consideration of how to best support stability and counter terrorism in this volatile environment.
Sahel Instability: A Decade of Failed Initiatives?
The Sahel region of Africa, a vast swathe of land south of the Sahara Desert, continues to grapple with a devastating security crisis. Despite a decade of international intervention and billions of dollars in aid, violence and instability persist. This raises critical questions about the effectiveness of past strategies and the need for a essential shift in approach.
The creation of the G5 Sahel Joint Force in 2014, headquartered in Nouakchott, Mauritania, represented a significant attempt to address the growing threat of terrorism and armed groups. The organization developed a comprehensive Strategy for Development and Security (SDS) in 2016, aiming to coordinate development projects with security initiatives. However, according to analysts Alain Antil and Thierry Vircoulon, “the G5’s implementation of programs fell short, with significant shortcomings in the planning of substantial projects noted by donors.”
This lack of effective project management led to a reliance on external partners, including the “Alliance sahel” and later the ”Coalition for the Sahel,” to oversee development funding. France, a major player in the region, spearheaded much of this aid, adopting a “3D” approach – defense, diplomacy, and development – as Antil and Vircoulon point out. “The necessity of combining military action and development efforts,” they noted, “was officially formulated with the 3D approach and the creation of the Alliance for the Sahel.”
Transparency concerns further hampered progress.donors demanded greater accountability, highlighting the need for robust mechanisms to ensure that funds reach intended recipients and are not diverted. This concern applies equally to the G5 Sahel and other initiatives like the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
despite numerous initiatives – including the Joint Operational Staff Committee (CEMOC) in 2010, the Nouakchott Process in 2013, Operation Barkhane in 2014, the Multinational Joint Force (FMM) in 2015, and the task Force Takuba in 2020 – insecurity remains rampant. The battles of Tinzaouatine in July 2024 and the attack on the gendarmerie school in Bamako on September 17, 2024, serve as stark reminders. The August 2024 attack in Barsalogho, Burkina Faso, further underscores the ongoing crisis.With the exception of the AES, all these initiatives have failed to stem the tide of violence.
The persistent instability in the Sahel has significant implications for the United States, including the potential for increased migration, the spread of extremist ideologies, and the destabilization of already fragile governments. A renewed focus on effective governance, sustainable development, and community-led solutions is crucial to achieving lasting peace and security in the region.
Shifting Sands: France’s diminishing Role in the Sahel and the Rise of New Alliances
For years, France has been a key player in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel region of Africa, providing military support and training to local governments. However, recent events signal a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape, with african nations increasingly charting their own course in matters of security and defense.
The Sahel, a vast and volatile region spanning several countries, has long struggled with instability and the threat of extremist groups. Past efforts, often supported by European partners, particularly France, have fallen short of fully eradicating insecurity and achieving lasting stability. While external support remains crucial, the onus of securing the region ultimately rests with the nations of the Sahel themselves.
This growing sense of self-reliance is evident in the changing dynamics of international partnerships. In the past,both France and the United States have been frequently called upon by Sahel governments for assistance. Though, the presence of foreign militaries, frequently enough operating from bases established under defense agreements, has been met with criticism from some activists and intellectuals who have labeled them as occupying forces.
Since 2008, France has been gradually scaling back its visible military presence in the Sahel.This strategic shift has presented the French military with a difficult choice: continue responding to requests from African governments or heed the concerns of those critical of defense agreements. the debate surrounding french military involvement has been highly charged, often fueled by passionate, and some would argue, exaggerated rhetoric.
“We will undoubtedly have to modify our deployment scheme to reduce our vulnerabilities (“less visible, less exposed”),”
stated General Thierry Burkhard, referencing French military bases in Africa. Despite this acknowledgment of the need for strategic adjustments, General Burkhard maintains that France cannot abandon the Sahel region to its fate, citing the potential consequences for French national security due to links between Sahel-based terrorist groups and sleeper cells in France and Europe.
Though, this perspective doesn’t necessarily encourage Sahel nations to fully embrace their sovereignty. While cooperation is strategically vital for regional security, the initiative must come from within Africa. The goal is to move beyond reliance on external powers and build self-sufficient security capabilities.
“Paris must maintain a realistic approach and a long-term strategic vision,”
General Burkhard added, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that addresses both immediate security concerns and long-term strategic goals.
The recent rise of military juntas in several Sahel nations has been accompanied by the denouncement of existing military agreements and a noticeable shift towards closer ties with Moscow. However, it’s crucial to recognize that Sahel nations retain the right to choose their partners, and cooperation remains a matter of sovereign will. The recent breakdown in relations between Niger and france, culminating in a near-crisis at the French embassy in Niamey, underscores the complexities and potential risks associated with these evolving partnerships.
Niger Coup: A Shifting Power Dynamic in the Sahel
The recent coup in Niger has sent shockwaves through the Sahel region, raising concerns about instability and the growing influence of russia. The swift takeover by General Tiani, who placed President Bazoum under house arrest, marks a significant turning point in Niger’s relationship with the West, particularly France.
Tiani’s actions were reportedly a response to protests against the government. He justified the coup as necessary to sever ties with Paris, suspend French media broadcasts, denounce military agreements, and align Niger with Mali and Burkina Faso – nations increasingly aligned with Moscow. This rapid sequence of events was likely intended to preempt any potential French military intervention to reinstate Bazoum.
The lack of French military intervention in the unfolding political crisis across the Sahel suggests a potential shift in Paris’s African policy,marking a departure from years of military involvement. Niger’s abrupt break with France reflects a desire to join the Mali-Burkina Faso bloc, a move seen as implicitly backed by Russia.
The cooperation between Paris and Niamey was once a model for counterterrorism efforts in the region. Both countries collaborated on securing areas threatened by terrorism and other forms of crime, particularly human trafficking along routes from Lake Chad through Agadez to Libya and Italy. However, a breakdown in trust between western powers and the Nigerien government led to the reassessment of this partnership.
The Nigerien authorities questioned the effectiveness of foreign partners in combating terrorism in the Sahel. This contrasts sharply with statements like that of Sylvain Itté, who argued, “As we’re no longer in Niger, there isn’t a day without terrorist attacks – in four months, there have been more deaths among civilians and security forces than in the previous three years.” The Nigerien leadership, however, maintains a different perspective, believing a revised approach to cooperation is needed to avoid foreign influence.
The withdrawal of Franco-American forces provides an chance to assess the effectiveness of Nigerien strategies against insecurity. A surge in nationalism among Nigerien armed forces is evident, fueled by a desire to defend their territory and demonstrate their capabilities without foreign assistance.However,reports indicate the presence of ex-Wagner Group mercenaries,now part of the African Corps,fighting alongside Nigerien troops.
The situation in Niger highlights the complex interplay of regional politics, counterterrorism efforts, and the growing influence of external actors in the Sahel. The long-term consequences of this coup remain uncertain, but its impact on regional stability and the broader geopolitical landscape is undeniable. The United States is closely monitoring the situation and its potential implications for U.S. interests in the region.
Rebuilding Trust: A New Approach to African-Western Partnerships
The relationship between African nations and their traditional Western partners is at a critical juncture. Years of shifting alliances and evolving priorities have eroded trust, particularly in the sahel region. A reassessment is needed, one that acknowledges past mistakes and forges a path toward innovative cooperation.
While African nations desire continued collaboration with western powers, including France and the United States, they seek a more equitable partnership. This sentiment echoes across West Africa, particularly within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).Historically, many African nations have benefited from military support from various global powers, including France, the U.S., Germany, and Russia. However, the increasing perception of a new Cold War playing out on African soil is a major concern.
The instability caused by this competition has had devastating consequences for African citizens. Thus, African leaders must take the initiative to reshape their relationships with international partners, fostering a new era of collaborative engagement. Blindly aligning with either the East or the West is not a viable solution. Replacing one partner with another,simply to appease public opinion,is shortsighted. Both sides have valuable contributions to make to a constructive partnership.
the European Union, the United States, and Russia have all trained African military personnel. General Thierry Burkhard, Chief of Staff of the French Armed Forces, has proposed a framework for strengthening cooperation. He advocates for France to “act in close coordination with our African partner countries and with our allies, without competing with them.” General Burkhard emphasizes the importance of respecting African nations’ desire to assert their sovereignty.
To avoid misunderstandings regarding sovereignty and independence, General Burkhard suggests that foreign powers allow African nations to lead the way in developing their own security strategies. These strategies could then be supported by international partners, but only with the full consent and participation of the African nations involved. For example, Sahel nations should be empowered to create their own security plans, with external support offered without any form of coercion. “The General advocates for…”
This approach prioritizes African agency and ownership, fostering a more sustainable and mutually beneficial partnership.It recognizes the unique challenges faced by African nations and empowers them to chart their own course toward security and stability.
France Seeks New Partnership Model in Africa: A ‘Co-Construction’ Approach
France is embarking on a significant shift in its approach to security cooperation in Africa, moving away from a traditional military presence towards a new model emphasizing ”co-construction” of security strategies. This initiative, announced by President Emmanuel Macron, aims to address growing concerns about sovereignty and effectiveness in the fight against terrorism.
The proclamation follows increasing criticism of France’s military involvement in the Sahel region, with some African nations expressing dissatisfaction with the outcomes and asserting their right to define their own security policies. This new strategy, spearheaded by special envoy Jean-Marie Bockel, will focus on four African countries currently hosting French military bases. The exact locations of these bases remain undisclosed, but the initiative signals a potential recalibration of France’s long-standing military presence on the continent.
A Shift in Strategy: From Intervention to Collaboration
The French government’s stated goal is to foster genuine partnerships, empowering African nations to lead their own security efforts. This contrasts with previous approaches, which have sometimes been perceived as neo-colonial interventions. The “co-construction” model emphasizes shared obligation and decision-making, with France providing logistical, financial, and capacity-building support while respecting African nations’ sovereignty.
“The demand for sovereignty expressed by African countries, who aspire to a new order and a paradigm shift, is easily understandable,” a French official stated, highlighting the shift in perspective. This acknowledgment of African agency is a key element of the new approach.
Addressing Concerns about Terrorism and Regional Stability
The initiative also aims to address the ongoing threat of terrorism in the Sahel region. While a French military official claimed that “operations conducted by French forces in the Sahel… have led to a drastic reduction in terrorist actions… prevented the creation of an Al-qaeda sanctuary, and significantly weakened Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM),” African leaders have expressed a different assessment of the situation, citing continued insecurity and the need for locally-driven solutions.
The success of this new “co-construction” approach will depend on several factors, including the willingness of African nations to engage in genuine partnership, the transparency and effectiveness of French support, and the ability of both sides to overcome historical mistrust. The initiative’s long-term impact on regional stability and the broader relationship between France and Africa remains to be seen.
The implications for the United States are significant, as the Sahel region’s stability is of considerable interest to U.S. national security. This shift in French strategy could influence U.S. approaches to security cooperation in Africa, potentially leading to increased collaboration or a reevaluation of existing partnerships.
France Rethinks Military Presence in Africa: A New Era of Partnership?
France is undertaking a significant reassessment of its military presence in Africa, aiming to reshape its relationship with the continent into a more balanced and mutually beneficial partnership. This strategic shift, spearheaded by President Emmanuel Macron, involves a less visible military role while maintaining a strong commitment to long-term cooperation.
The initiative follows a series of pronouncements by President Macron, beginning with his 2017 Ouagadougou speech outlining a “refounded relationship” with Africa.He reiterated this vision in his November 2022 strategic review speech in Toulon and again during a February 2023 address on the France-Africa partnership at the Élysée palace. Macron’s vision emphasizes “building renewed, balanced, and mutually beneficial partnerships with African countries, fully acknowledging our interests.”
President Macron’s commitment to this new approach was further solidified in a December 2023 ministerial meeting, setting the stage for significant changes in both civilian and military spheres. This led to the appointment of Jean-Marie Bockel as a special envoy to oversee the transition.
“It is essential to approach this adaptation with particular attention to the countries that host our bases: Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Gabon, and Chad – the case of Djibouti, where France has a base alongside other countries, the United States and China, is not within the scope of this review,”
Bockel’s mission, as outlined in his mandate, includes direct engagement with high-level officials in these nations. The goal is to explain France’s evolving strategy,understand their needs,and foster a collaborative approach to future cooperation.
“In the context of your mission, you will meet with the authorities of these countries, including at the highest level, to explain our approach and gather their needs, in a spirit of respect and co-construction.”
Bockel is tasked with leveraging the expertise of the French Ministries of Armed Forces and Europe and Foreign Affairs, working closely with French ambassadors in the region to ensure a smooth and obvious transition.The emphasis is on adapting cooperation to meet the specific needs of African partners.
“You will emphasize our commitment to remaining a reliable partner for these countries, in the long term, but in a less visible way regarding the military aspect.”
This strategic shift reflects a broader trend in international relations,where partnerships are increasingly defined by mutual respect and shared interests. The French government’s commitment to a less visible military presence signals a move towards a more sustainable and collaborative approach to security cooperation in Africa.The long-term success of this initiative will depend on open communication,mutual understanding,and a genuine commitment to shared prosperity.
The implications of this shift extend beyond France and Africa,potentially influencing how other global powers approach their security partnerships worldwide. The focus on civilian cooperation and a reduced military profile could serve as a model for future collaborations, emphasizing diplomacy and sustainable development over military intervention.
France Reshapes Military Presence in Africa: A New Era of Partnership?
France is undertaking a significant reassessment of its military presence in Africa, moving away from a traditional model towards a more balanced and collaborative partnership. This strategic shift, spearheaded by President Emmanuel Macron, aims to address growing concerns about neocolonialism while bolstering regional security and stability.
The initiative,entrusted to special envoy Jean-Marie Bockel,involves a comprehensive review of French military bases and operations in four key African nations: Côte d’Ivoire,Chad,Gabon,and Senegal. The goal is to tailor French military support to the specific needs and priorities of each country, fostering a more equitable and mutually beneficial relationship.
“This reconfiguration of our deployment must be understood, co-constructed, and accompanied by potential broader changes to our commitments to these countries. You will ensure that these partnerships are balanced,with each party finding its own benefit,”
President Macron stated,emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach that respects the sovereignty and agency of African nations. This sentiment reflects a broader shift in Franco-African relations, moving away from a paternalistic model towards one of genuine partnership.
Bockel’s mission includes consultations with African leaders to determine the optimal level and nature of French military support. In Côte d’ivoire, he spoke of a “remodeling” of the French presence, while in Chad, he highlighted the need to adapt french deployments to the region’s evolving security challenges. In Gabon, he emphasized a collaborative approach to shaping the future of military partnership.
“I came to study, in consultation with the Gabonese authorities, the future of our military partnership,”
Bockel stated following his meeting with the Gabonese transitional president. His visit to Senegal was delayed due to the recent presidential election.
Despite this strategic recalibration, France intends to maintain a significant military presence in key regions. Bases in Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, as a notable example, provide crucial logistical support for operations in volatile areas such as northern Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Similarly, the Libreville base covers Central Africa, and the Djibouti base serves East Africa, ensuring France’s capacity to respond to crises where requested.
Bockel is expected to submit his recommendations to President Macron by July 2024, outlining a comprehensive plan for the restructuring of French military deployments over the next 18 months. This initiative marks a pivotal moment in Franco-African relations, signaling a potential paradigm shift towards a more equitable and sustainable partnership based on mutual respect and shared security interests.
Transatlantic Terror Links: Tracing Jihadist Movements Across the Sahara
The vast expanse of the Sahara Desert serves as a tragically effective backdrop for a complex web of jihadist activity, connecting the Sahel region of Africa with major European capitals like Paris and Brussels. The movement of fighters and the sharing of intelligence across this expanse pose a significant challenge to international counterterrorism efforts. Understanding the connections between these seemingly disparate locations is crucial to disrupting terrorist networks and preventing future attacks.
The presence of French military forces in former colonies in Africa, while often viewed as a stabilizing influence, is a subject of ongoing debate.”We are lucky to have a culture of alert and projection, and we must not lose it,” stated a French official, highlighting the country’s long-standing military deployments in the region. However, the presence of these forces is contingent upon the sovereign will of the host nations. For instance,Senegal’s former president,Abdoulaye Wade,demanded the withdrawal of French troops from Dakar in 2010,a process later reversed by President Macky Sall in 2012. This highlights the delicate balance between security cooperation and national sovereignty.
France now proposes a redefined strategic partnership with African nations, focusing on adapting its network of local support points, military bases, and training academies. This initiative involves collaboration with the European Union and the United States. The Sahel nations, recognizing the need for global cooperation to bolster their security, are receptive to such training programs, provided they are voluntary. This contrasts with Russia’s approach,which is supporting its allies in the region through the Wagner Group and other initiatives.
Moscow is actively pursuing economic ties with African nations, establishing chambers of commerce and exploring the possibility of Russian banks opening representative offices on the continent. Furthermore, Russia is considering supporting the candidacy of some Francophone African countries for BRICS membership. However, the focus remains on the crucial need for enhanced intelligence sharing between sahel nations and their international partners, including France, Morocco, and Belgium.
The threat is real and multifaceted. “The majority of terrorist groups in the Sahel have cells in Europe (France, Belgium),” a security expert noted. “There are branches of Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Europe connected to cells established in the Sahel.” This underscores the critical need for robust intelligence sharing to effectively combat these transnational threats. While Russia offers technical assistance, the primary focus for tracing jihadist movements remains within Europe, particularly France, where many established jihadists are of african origin. The trail leads from Paris to Bamako, Brussels to Niamey, and the connections must be uncovered.
The fight against terrorism in the Sahel requires a multifaceted approach,encompassing military cooperation,economic development,and,most critically,effective intelligence sharing between nations across continents. The transatlantic nature of this threat demands a collaborative response,leveraging the strengths and expertise of various partners to disrupt terrorist networks and protect populations on both sides of the Atlantic.
Sahel Region Faces Energy Crisis, Security Challenges Amidst Shifting Global partnerships
The Sahel region of Africa is grappling with a dual crisis: severe energy shortages and persistent insecurity, hindering economic growth and fueling social unrest. Countries in the region, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, are experiencing widespread power outages, crippling businesses and limiting opportunities for their citizens.This situation is forcing a reassessment of international partnerships and prompting a search for new solutions.
In Mali, for example, electricity cuts are a daily reality, slowing economic activity in both rural and urban areas. “The situation is identical in Burkina Faso and Niger,” a source familiar with the matter stated.to address this, governments are actively seeking new energy sources and partnerships. This includes a significant investment in renewable energy, with Russia playing a prominent role.
Russia’s state nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom, through its subsidiary Novawind, is constructing a 200-megawatt solar power plant in Sanankoroba, Mali. On May 23, 2024, Malian President Assimi Goïta met with Novawind President Grigory Nazarov at the Koulouba Palace to discuss the project. “Novawind has numerous renewable energy projects in Mali,” Nazarov reportedly stated. This initiative is part of a broader effort by the Malian government to diversify its energy sources and improve energy access for its citizens.
Similar efforts are underway in Burkina Faso. A delegation from the Société Nationale d’Électricité du burkina Faso (SONABEL) is expected to travel to Moscow and Tatarstan to finalize energy projects. The energy sector is not only crucial for economic development but also for national security. “The fight against insecurity cannot be limited to the military; states must invest in economic sectors to help young people and women,” a regional expert noted.
The energy crisis extends beyond solar power. Niger’s uranium mine, operated by the French company Orano, has attracted interest from Rosatom and Chinese companies, highlighting the competition for resources and influence in the region. Furthermore, the proposed Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline project aims to address the energy deficit in the sahel through South-South cooperation.
The increased engagement of Russia and China in the Sahel’s energy sector raises questions about the future of Western partnerships. “The breakdown of relations between the AES (presumably referring to a regional security alliance) and these Western partners could hinder the desired performance in the fight against terrorism,” a security analyst warned. However, the Sahel nations are seeking “a sincere, balanced partnership that respects their sovereignty.”
The interconnectedness of energy security and national security is undeniable. Addressing the energy crisis is not merely an economic imperative; it’s a crucial step towards stabilizing the region and fostering sustainable development. The Sahel’s future hinges on its ability to secure reliable energy sources while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape.
