When Donald Trump ran for the Republican primary, he was greeted with smiles. Everyone thought he was going to make a comeback and disappear from the political scene very quickly. To everyone’s surprise, he won. Everyone in the Democratic camp was confident and certain that Hillary Clinton would win the election against such an offbeat or even repulsive candidate.
President Trump ultimately defied all odds by winning the election and announcing his determination to change the United States. He also, during the election campaign, announced that he was going to break with the American foreign policy followed by all his predecessors, Republicans and Democrats together, which had only led to a decline of the country. He promised to give them back their power and “Make America great again”.
These announcements had been met with the greatest skepticism, including and foremost in the United States. No recognized expert on international issues had agreed to be part of his campaign team. On the contrary, former diplomats, retired generals and specialists in think tanks in office, publicly warned American voters of the dangers that President Trump would pose to their country, its prestige and its security.
His first steps as president were deemed catastrophic and have placed almost all leaders and observers of the international scene in an abyss of perplexity. Rude remarks and behavior, inflammatory and racist statements, rejection of traditional allies and the best established common rules, filthy ignorance of files, compulsive use of Twitter… The American president had become a subject of joke.
Terrible error, because we are not witnessing a comedy, but a drama which unfolds before our eyes without our really being aware of it.
While he is being laughed at, Donald Trump is moving forward. He follows his agenda. He is not irrational, he just has other priorities. He wants the illusion of a unipolar world which, among other things, led to the catastrophic Iraq war to no longer become a costly pipe dream for the United States but a dangerous reality for those who oppose it.
And he might be winning his bet. He has renounced the illusory policy of liberal hegemony led by all American presidents since the end of the Cold War, made up of military interventions to export universal values and democracy, and he is not campaigning for the establishment of regimes. democratic, sometimes feeling closer to established dictators (Kim Jong-un, MBS) than elected leaders (Trudeau, Merkel, Macron). To be sure, it continues to rely on military force, and it has increased the US military budget from $ 600 billion to $ 720 billion. But he wants to show his strength so that he doesn’t have to use it. It is also unnecessary. The threats of sanctions, the closure of the American market and the application of extraterritorial legislation to other countries are enough to bring them into line. Not content with denouncing the Iran nuclear deal, he now wants to ban any country from buying oil from Tehran. The others protest, dispute, but in reality agree to implement the decisions of D. Trump. Rather than military expeditions, sanctions are now being decreed and those who do not want to follow are threatened. No more country is going to buy Iranian oil.
Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, Donald Trump hopes that the economic suffocation of these countries will lead to a popular revolt leading, more surely than armed intervention, to a change of regime. And it forces other countries to follow it. He hopes by the same means to obtain the denuclearization of North Korea. If he accomplishes only one of these 4 objectives, he will be able to come back triumphant in front of the voters already satisfied with the good economic health of the country and to retain power until 2024.
Will he therefore establish an American imperial which will challenge the sovereignty of other nations more than ever? It depends above all on their reaction, and above all on China, Russia and the European Union. Will they let him do it? D. Trump would then triumph through their inaction and their division.
This article is also available on Le Club Mediapart
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