In front of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and 35 km from the Belarusian border, Vilnius is hosting a major Atlantic Alliance summit on Tuesday July 11 and Wednesday July 12, as 500 days have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is no sign announces the end of hostilities. In the presence of American President Joe Biden, the 31 NATO countries, including the newcomer Finland, but without Sweden, whose entry is still subject to a Turkish veto, will recall their unwavering support for the Ukraine, who is also applying to join the club.
On the…
In front of the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and 35 km from the Belarusian border, Vilnius is hosting a major Atlantic Alliance summit on Tuesday July 11 and Wednesday July 12, as 500 days have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is no sign announces the end of hostilities. In the presence of American President Joe Biden, the 31 NATO countries, including the newcomer Finland, but without Sweden, whose entry is still subject to a Turkish veto, will recall their unwavering support for the Ukraine, who is also applying to join the club.
1 Joe Biden, uncontested leader
The President of the United States takes the opportunity to make a European tour which starts in the United Kingdom on July 9 and ends on July 13 in Helsinki. In London, Joe Biden will be received at Windsor Castle by King Charles III, whose coronation he did not attend. He must also meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak whom he welcomed in Washington in early June: proof of the post-Brexit closeness found between the Anglo-Saxon allies, at the forefront of support for Ukraine.
At the end of the Vilnius summit, Biden will be in Helsinki to salute the importance of Finland’s entry into NATO with its powerful armed forces and which shares 1,300 km of border with Russia. By spending four days with his European allies, the American president will materialize his country’s regained Western leadership in a confrontation with Russia which recalls, with guns in addition, the great era of the Cold War.
2 Ukraine is knocking at the door
Volodymyr Zelensky, who is taking part in the summit, is asking for “clarity” in kyiv’s relations with NATO. It is almost certain that his country’s candidacy will wait until the end of the war to be ratified. But the allies have been debating for weeks what “security guarantees” to offer Ukraine. This could involve the creation of a “council” on which it would sit on an equal footing with the member countries, and which would be a more effective framework for cooperation than a simple “commission”.
These guarantees cannot go so far as to promise the Ukrainians the equivalent of article 5 of the NATO charter, which entails the intervention of all in support of the attacked. But the allies are negotiating a formula that would offer kyiv enhanced economic and military assistance. In Vilnius, they should decide on a new package of assistance for intelligence, training and modernization of the Ukrainian army and its interoperability with Alliance forces.
3 Sweden, lifting the Turkish lock
For a year, Turkey has been blocking Sweden’s entry into NATO. And for now, neither the arrival of a new (right-wing) government in Stockholm, nor Sweden’s gestures to assure the Turks that it does not support Kurdish separatism, nor American pressure, nor active negotiations have weakened President Erdogan. A final attempt at conciliation is scheduled for July 10 on the eve of the summit under the leadership of the Secretary General (renewed) of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.
Confirmation of Swedish membership in Vilnius will therefore not take place. But negotiations continue behind the scenes. Received for the first time in Turkey since the beginning of the war, Zelensky became Sweden’s advocate before Erdogan. And the allies noted that the Turkish president, if he did not respond to the Swedish case, declared to his Ukrainian counterpart that kyiv “deserves to enter NATO”. Erdogan, who will welcome Putin in August, is more than ever a mediator in the conflict.
4 New expenditure commitment
The significance of the summit can be seen in the guest list. In addition to Biden and Zelensky, there are the heads of Asian countries close to the Alliance (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea), those of the European Union (Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen), and the Heads of State and Government of the main European countries, including Emmanuel Macron. Sweden takes part in all sessions as a guest. And several EU candidate countries (Moldova, Georgia, Bosnia) will be there.
The United States will take the opportunity to encourage their European allies to confirm the increase in their military spending to fill their gaps in key areas: strategic air transport, air defense, intelligence, artillery. Set in 2014, the floor of 2% of GDP devoted to defense is now respected, or even exceeded, by eleven countries. NATO estimates that defense spending by Europeans and Canada should increase by 8.3% in real terms in 2023.
2023-07-08 17:08:55
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