Europe is watching the health situation in China with a worried eye. The explosion of contaminations could lead to a new epidemic outbreak in the world and lead to the emergence of new, more contaminating variants. Professor Étienne Decroly, CNRS virologist, takes stock of La Dépêche.
How do you see the health situation in China?
While it has ended its “Zero Covid” policy, China is currently affected by a particularly communicable variant: BF.7. It is expected that there will be a very rapid progression of contamination in this country where until now the virus has not circulated or has circulated very little. On site we have a population that is “naive” in scientific jargon, that is to say that it is not – or little – immune to serious forms of the disease, both through vaccination and through contamination. Without control measures, China could therefore be hit by a big wave.
In Europe, are we right to worry about this explosion of cases?
The question that arises is to what extent the variants circulating in China could revive viral circulation in Europe. The main variant currently in circulation in China, the BF.7, has already been detected in Europe and France. This is a strain that has not emerged during recent outbreaks.
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In Europe, it would therefore appear that we enjoy sufficient immunity to stem the spread of this variant. However, the question remains open whether new variants emerge in China.
But other variants could appear in China…
That’s the whole problem! We know that today China is a real factory of variants: when a virus circulates very intensely in a territory, the risk is of seeing new, more contagious variants appear which could spread to other countries. This is bad news that nevertheless teaches us one thing, namely that today it is necessary to implement a global control strategy. When we look at epidemic outbreaks, anywhere in the world, we now know that there will be a risk of resumption of viral circulation on a global scale following the emergence of variants.
Can the current situation be considered a “rollback” three years after the discovery of the virus in China?
No, I don’t think we can talk about “return to the past”. Today we are better equipped to face new variants. The immunity we enjoy through contamination and vaccination is expected to protect us, at least in part, from future surges.
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But we must not be naive and think that it is not serious to suffer epidemic waves. Because even if there are fewer deaths and hospitalizations related to Covid-19, multiple and repeated infections increase the risks of comorbidity and long-term Covid over time. It’s not nice to be in a situation where you are chronically reinfected with this virus.
Is testing travelers from China on our borders a sufficient measure in your opinion?
No, we know very well that every time we take this kind of measure, it’s too late… We are introducing screening tests at various airports in Europe at a time when China has already recorded a record number of infections. And besides, we always have people slipping through the cracks. We can remember that there are people who can test negative while they are incubating the virus. I don’t see how these tests would allow Europe to protect itself.
