As the capital Caracas and other Venezuelan cities pulsate with anti-government anger, expressed violently in the streets by opposition supporters, and while almost no country beyond the five of China, Russia, Cuba, Turkey and Iran has accepted the results of the of last Sunday’s election presented by the National Electoral Council, President Nicolas Maduro appeared within the week unmoved as to the validity of the count.
The images and the scenario unfolding before the eyes of international public opinion in the last few days are almost the same as what has followed every election in the country for several years, even during the days of Hugo Chávez. This time, however, the climate is particularly charged given the bad situation in which Venezuela has fallen during the last administration of Nicolás Maduro, economically and not only, but also given the initial refusal on the part of the electoral authorities and the government to present detailed results of the vote count.
According to the National Electoral Council and Maduro himself, the president was re-elected with 51.21% of the vote against the 44.2% of his opponent and former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. At the same time and as the days passed and the detailed results from each of the 30,000 polling stations were not presented, the opposition led by Urrutia, but with the conservative politician Maria Korina Masado essentially pulling the strings, presented its own results according to which Urrutia was elected with an impressive 70% of the vote and Maduro lost with only 30%.
Complaints from the opposition for fraud and falsification of election results followed, but this time also from a huge group of states, including those that were considered friendly or even tolerant towards the Maduro regime.
They turned their backs on him
The de facto situation has reached an impasse, and so demonstrations and clashes once again broke out in the streets of Venezuelan cities. But Maduro’s main problem this time is not the anti-government demonstrations which, as in previous times, the police repress with the appropriate ferocity, but the clear rejection of the results presented by the government from almost all Latin countries America.
Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, Dominican Republic, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia – whose president Gustavo Petro is considered one of Maduro’s closest allies in the region – have made it clear either they do not recognize the results or they will recognize them when the detailed results are made public. In response, the Venezuelan government took measures to downgrade diplomatic relations with seven countries in the region, while cutting direct flights with some of them.
With one foot outside the country
This attitude of the neighboring countries, which cannot be said to be all pro-American, is not so much related to the competition between the USA and the EU on the one hand and China, Russia, Iran, Cuba and Turkey on the other, but to the same the situation inside Venezuela which in previous years has prompted millions of Venezuelans to emigrate or seek asylum in almost all countries of the American continent, including the USA.
According to pre-election polls, around 17% of Venezuelan respondents said they would leave the country within the first six months if Maduro were to prevail. Venezuela’s adult population is estimated at 25 million, which means that if the pollsters do what they say and the estimates turn out to be true, within six months the governments of Latin American countries and the US will have a wave to deal with. migration of 4 million people.
According to data from the US, already 7.8 million Venezuelans have left the country in the past years and integrating them into the host countries is a challenge for local authorities and governments.
Waiting for the… USA
As for the confrontation between the West and the Maduro government’s supporting countries, there things are taking a somewhat dangerous turn, as the five countries made it clear that they not only recognize the results and congratulate Maduro for his re-election, but at the same time hope for further tightening of relationships. On the other hand, the US and the EU appear to be taking a wait-and-see attitude and are clearly supporting the opposition. Of course, their overall stance will be determined after the November US elections, depending on the outcome.
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