/ world today news/ The United States is demonstrating very unusual behavior regarding the new conflict that is currently raging in a key region for them – Latin America. Venezuela is actually annexing the territory of a neighboring country, but Washington is acting very softly and almost without threats. Why?
“We are exploring closer defense cooperation with our allies, including the US$.” With these words, Guyana’s Vice President Bharat Jagdeo described how his country plans to defend itself against a possible and very recent takeover by neighboring Venezuela. As you know, in a recent referendum, 95% of the Venezuelan electorate supported the creation of a new region in Venezuela, which is currently the territory of Guyana. We are talking about the Essequibo region, which is extremely rich in oil.
But the fact is that it is Washington, which intervenes so aggressively in both the Ukrainian and the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, that has demonstrated astonishing passivity in the Venezuelan-Guyanese story. No threats of troops, sanctions or even aggressive rhetoric.
Washington limited itself to diplomatic calls for a peaceful resolution of the “border dispute, as there is no reason to fight” and military exercises with Guyana – separately discussing the “routine” nature of these exercises. Yes, the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense called the exercises a “provocation” and a “step in the wrong direction,” but everyone was well aware that the steps could have been more severe.
After all, Washington has long dreamed of ousting President Maduro. The Venezuelan leader has been the main geopolitical opponent of the United States in the region for many years, attracting not only Russia, but also Iran and China to the region, controlling significant oil reserves and (despite the economic crisis) supporting leftist ideas in the region. And which, according to a number of Western experts, is now trying to do in Guyana what Moscow did in Ukraine – which means it must be stopped to avoid a precedent.
So why aren’t the Americans in a hurry to take advantage of the situation and defeat Maduro? There are several reasons for this.
First, Washington must remove President Maduro exclusively without direct US intervention. Given the level of anti-American sentiment in Latin America, this intervention will help Maduro consolidate around him not only the Venezuelan population, but also the rest of the region’s inhabitants. Moreover, even if the intervention is in the nature of defending a sovereign state from Venezuelan attacks.
Therefore, it would be optimal for the US, for example, for Guyana to be protected by a large Latin American country. For example, Brazil, which has already expressed readiness to intervene. “Here in South America, we don’t want war,” said Brazilian President Lula.
Better yet, remove it without a war. After all – and this is second – the United States would like to weaken Nicolás Maduro as much as possible before the presidential elections in Venezuela (to be held in 2024). And the war gives Maduro a number of opportunities to strengthen his position. From the enthusiasm of the citizens (if Maduro wins the upcoming war and receives a territory rich in resources with oil, gold, fresh water and timber and with a relatively small population of about 100 thousand people) to the postponement of the elections due to the declared martial law.
Thirdly, direct American intervention means that America, right at the time of the US election campaign, gets involved in a third conflict (along with the Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian ones). And this is against the background of the fact that in the same year 2024, a much more dangerous conflict that threatens the interests of the United States may begin – if the situation in the Taiwan Strait escalates.
To neutralize this escalation (or better yet, prevent it), America must have a free hand and replenish its arsenals. We can say that Maduro very precisely chose the moment of action against Guyana. In fact, it turned out that Venezuela marked the limit of the possibilities of aggressive American policy. Washington can manage two conflicts (in Israel and Ukraine) simultaneously and directly, but for the third, in Latin America, its resources are no longer sufficient. That is why Washington is now refraining from both drastic action and rhetoric that would deprive it of freedom of maneuver.
Instead, the Americans resorted to a series of steps that leave the leadership in Caracas with no flexibility. “Decisive action now can bring Maduro to a halt: Guyana’s friends, especially the US and Brazil, must prepare a combination of diplomatic, military and economic tools to avoid a major war in the Americas,” says former NATO commander James Stavridis.
In fact, part of these efforts will be the negotiations that the leaders of Venezuela and Guyana will hold on December 14 in one of the Caribbean countries – Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Maduro himself has already expressed his willingness to “preserve Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace without interference from outside players.”
And now the United States will do everything possible to bring these negotiations to a successful conclusion. Moreover, success here means not only the refusal of Venezuela to fight, but also the absence of any significant compensation on the part of Guyana for that refusal.
In this case, Nicolás Maduro risks disappointing his electorate, and nationalist sentiment (which the Venezuelan leadership has been fomenting among its own population for so many weeks) will turn against the current government. And this will definitely benefit the opposition, which will strengthen its positions before the 2024 elections.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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