[Madman Says Trend]The volatile situation will not be easily broken, and there is still strong support below 23,500-Blockchain

madman says…

The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March is 28%, and the probability of 25 basis points is 70%, which is basically a certainty. Tonight, there will be core inflation data for January released at 21:30, and it is estimated that there will be no impact on the market. Too much impact, at most it will fluctuate rapidly for a period of time, but it is difficult to change the current shock situation.

At the same time, the number of unemployment benefits announced by the United States yesterday continued to be lower than expected, which means that the U.S. job market is still strong, the economy is strong, and inflationary expectations continue to increase, which increases the probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in March. The probability of being under pressure is relatively high, but whether it is hawkish or not, and how hawkish it is, depends on the CPI data in February. So from a macro perspective, before the release of the CPI in February, the market is still in a vacuum, and there is no basis for a continuous correction. At worst, it will be volatile. If the mood is better, a rebound to a new high can be expected.

In terms of stable currency, it is still in a state of outflow, which means that funds are still fleeing in this position, and it is also a feedback to the uncertainty at the macro level. The US dollar index continues to strengthen, and the yield of US bonds continues to rise, all of which indicate the Fed’s hawkish expectations in March , so naturally some funds will be hedged in this position, but the long-term holders have hardly loosened their bargaining chips, so the madman still believes that the shock situation will not be easily broken, and there is still strong support below 23,500. In addition, the CPI in February is expected to fall, so whether the Fed can be as hawkish as expected is still a question mark. Strategically, it is good to continue to sell high and buy low.

The conversion and ebb tide of small currency hotspots are relatively fast, and they are still in a risky area. If you are not particularly sure, you should try to participate as little as possible. Concepts such as Arbitrum’s small market capitalization ecology and BTCFi are basically not listed on major exchanges, so they are all in DEX For hype, the threshold is relatively high. If you are interested in researching it yourself, you may have excess returns.

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author’s personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the block. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and blockers will not bear any responsibility for the direct and indirect losses caused by investor transactions.