Lula’s popularity would peak this year

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enjoyed rising approval ratings last year, but they would hit a plateau in 2024.

A CNT/MDA survey showed that 42.7% of respondents rate Lula’s management as good or excellent, 28.1% as average and 27.9% as bad or very bad. In the last survey in September 2023, the respective figures were 41%, 30% and 28%.

“Economic performance will likely be somewhat weaker in 2024 than in 2023. This limits the scope for improving the government’s approval ratings. At the same time, the rate of rejection of the government reached a sustained level in the range of 30% of voters, so this year will not be a year of large fluctuations in government approval,” Mário Sérgio Lima, head of state, told BNamericas. senior political analyst at Medley Global Advisors.

The survey was carried out between January 18 and 21 and included 2,002 respondents. The margin of error is 2.2%.

This year, the economy is expected to grow 1.6%, according to the Central Bank’s most recent weekly survey of 100 economists. The estimated expansion for 2024 is around 3%.

“After the first year of Lula’s government, expectations for the coming months remain positive, especially in priority issues for the population, such as the economy, health and education,” Marcelo Souza, director of the polling firm, said in a statement. MDA.

Last year, the official IPCA inflation index stood at 4.62%, down from 5.79% in 2022. Unemployment reached 7.5% at the end of November 2023, the latest figure available, down from 8 .1% from the same moment in 2022.

The administration should “pay attention to actions related to public safety, since that is where it has the worst criticism,” the expert added.

Lula took office in January 2023 after narrowly defeating former President Jair Bolsonaro in October 2022.

After Bolsonaro completed a year in office, his administration was rated as good or excellent by 35%, fair by 32%, and bad or very bad by 31%.

The municipal elections, which will take place in October, will pit allies of Lula and Bolsonaro against each other. However, the election is unlikely to reveal much about the 2026 presidential race.

“The national polarization observed in recent years between left and right political forces will possibly be more present in the elections in some large capitals.” [de estados]. However, if we look at the majority of Brazilian cities, the elections will be defined around very local issues,” Souza added.