nBelarus’ authoritarian president Alexander Lukashenko has extended his more than three decades in power after an orchestrated election that the opposition and the European Union rejected as a sham. The country’s exiled opposition leader called the result “sheer nonsense”. The Central Election Commission declared Mr Lukashenko the winner in the early hours of Monday and reaffirmed it later in the morning, saying the strongman leader garnered nearly 87% of the vote after a campaign in which four token challengers all praised his rule. Mr Lukashenko’s opponents, many of whom are imprisoned or exiled abroad by his unrelenting crackdown on dissent and free speech, called the election a sham — much like the last one in 2020 that triggered months of protests that were unprecedented in the history of the country of nine million people. Over the following four years, more than 65,000 people were arrested and thousands beaten, with the crackdown bringing condemnation and sanctions from the West.The European Union has rejected Sunday’s election as illegitimate and threatened new sanctions. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the election offered no choice to voters, marking “a bitter day for all those who long for freedom and democracy”. “Rather of free and fair elections and a life without fear and arbitrariness, they experience daily oppression, repression and human rights violations,” she said in a post on X. The EU, the UK, Australia and New Zealand issued a joint statement condemning “the sham presidential elections in Belarus” and the Lukashenko government’s human rights violations. “no election can be considered free, fair or in line with international standards when it is held in a climate of ongoing repression, marked by a clampdown on civil society, arbitrary detentions and restrictions on genuine political participation,” the statement said, urging authorities to release political prisoners.The countries said they were imposing co-ordinated sanctions on Mr Lukashenko’s government. Britain and Canada jointly imposed sanctions on six individuals, including prison chiefs, a senior interior ministry official and the head of the central Election Commission, as well as three Belarusian defense companies. Mr Lukashenko has been in power since 1994 and has ruled the country with an iron fist. He relies on subsidies and political support from Russia. Mr Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use the country’s territory to invade Ukraine in 2022 and later hosted some of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons. Russian president Vladimir Putin called Mr Lukashenko on Monday to congratulate him on his “convincing victory”, while Chinese President xi Jinping also sent congratulations. Opposition leader-in-exile sviatlana tsikhanouskaya, who fled belarus under government pressure after challenging Mr Lukashenko in 2020, had denounced the election in advance and had urged voters to cross off every candidate on the ballot. On Monday, she rejected the official vote tally as “sheer nonsense”, saying Mr Lukashenko “will not succeed in cheating the world and the Belarusian people, who live in fear amid the most horrible repressions”. “As long as Belarus remains under control of Lukashenko and Putin, there will remain a constant threat to peace and security of the entire region,” Ms tsikhanouskaya told The Associated Press.
Table of Contents
In a recent election widely condemned as a sham, Belarus’ authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko extended his three-decade-long rule with 87% of the vote. The opposition, the European union, and global leaders have dismissed the results as illegitimate, citing widespread repression and human rights violations. We spoke with dr. Elena Petrova, a political analyst specializing in Eastern European authoritarian regimes, to unpack the implications of this election and its impact on Belarus and the region.
The Election and Its Aftermath
Editor: Dr. Petrova, the Belarusian Central Election Commission declared Lukashenko the winner with nearly 87% of the vote. What does this result tell us about the state of democracy in Belarus?
Dr. Petrova: This result is not surprising, given Lukashenko’s iron-fist rule sence 1994. the election was neither free nor fair. The four token challengers in the campaign all praised lukashenko,and genuine opposition candidates were barred from running. The regime’s crackdown on dissent and systematic repression ensured ther was no real political competition. This election, much like the one in 2020, was a sham designed to legitimize Lukashenko’s grip on power.
International Reactions and Sanctions
Editor: The European union, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand have jointly condemned the election and imposed sanctions. How significant are these actions?
Dr. Petrova: These coordinated sanctions are a clear message to Lukashenko’s regime.They target key figures, including prison chiefs, a senior interior ministry official, and the head of the Central election Commission, as well as Belarusian defence companies. While sanctions have been imposed before, this joint effort underscores the international community’s unified stance against the regime’s human rights violations and repression. However, Lukashenko’s reliance on Russia’s political and financial support means these sanctions may have limited impact domestically.
Opposition and Repression
Editor: The exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya called the election “sheer nonsense.” How effective is the opposition in challenging Lukashenko’s rule?
Dr. Petrova: the opposition faces immense challenges. Many leaders are imprisoned or exiled, and the regime has effectively silenced dissent through arbitrary detentions and brutal crackdowns. Over 65,000 people have been arrested since 2020, and thousands have been beaten. Despite this, figures like Tsikhanouskaya continue to galvanize international support. Though, provided that Lukashenko retains control with Russia’s backing, the opposition’s ability to effect change internally remains severely limited.
Geopolitical Implications
Editor: Lukashenko has allowed Belarus to be used as a staging ground for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons. What does this mean for regional security?
Dr. Petrova: Belarus’ alignment with Russia represents a significant threat to regional stability. By hosting Russian forces and nuclear weapons, Lukashenko has turned Belarus into a strategic outpost for Moscow’s aggression. This not onyl endangers Ukraine but also poses a broader threat to Europe’s security. As Tsikhanouskaya rightly pointed out, Belarus under Lukashenko and Putin remains a constant threat to peace in the region.
Conclusion
The recent election in Belarus underscores the entrenched nature of Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule, marked by widespread repression and a complete disregard for democratic norms. While the international community has condemned the election and imposed sanctions, Lukashenko’s reliance on Russian support ensures his regime remains resilient. The path to democracy and freedom for Belarus remains fraught with challenges, as the opposition continues to struggle against a repressive state apparatus and geopolitical realities.
