Lukashenko is shaking sabers on the border with Ukraine: is Belarus able to go to warfare?

The self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko got here out with new threats. The dictator introduced an “improve in rigidity” on the border with Ukraine, started “investigating” navy items and threatened nuclear weapons.

What is going on on the border with Belarus and which is a attainable assault now, is within the feedback TSN.ua stated navy professional Oleg Zhdanov.

What is going on on the border with Belarus

On June 20, the border guards of Belarus had been registered improve within the variety of Ukrainian navy personnel and tools. In line with their data, plainly a number of items, together with these with heavy weapons, are stationed within the border space.

On June 21, Belarus began instantly “examine” of navy items. For this goal, coaching areas and areas of land close to the borders of Ukraine and Poland had been used.

On June 28, the border guards of Belarus introduced that they had been staying within the Zhytomyr area fighters of the Russian Volunteer Complicated (RDK)which is “a menace to the Belarusian state.”

After this, the Ministry of Protection of Belarus stated that the Polonaise MLRS division was taking part in finishing up duties to cowl the state’s border with Ukraine. The unit commander confirmed that the division arrived on the designated space totally armed and was prepared to finish the mission inside 20 minutes.

On June 30, the Chief of the Common Workers of the Armed Forces Pavel Muraveiko stated that Belarus use of nuclear weaponsif “independence is threatened”.

The Deputy Commander of the Particular Forces for Ideological Work of the Armed Forces of Belarus stated that Ukraine was reportedly drawing troops to the border and attempt to drag the nation into warfare.

Belarus will assault or not – who is aware of

In line with Oleg Zhdanov, Lukashenko’s threats might be a response to the European Union’s sanctions towards the Belarusian financial system, which had been adopted on June 29.

“Lukashenko has one other promotion. Once more they slipped him some type of map, the place he would now present the place the assault on Belarus was deliberate. The identical factor occurs. To start with, this can be a response to the package deal of sanctions that the European Union imposed towards Belarus, together with Lukashenko and his followers. Second, it might be worry – do not contact Belarus, do not contact me. He’s very afraid of being faraway from energy. He means that Ukraine claims that they intend to destroy and seize land. That is why he makes such statements,” says Oleg Zhdanov.

The navy professional famous that Lukashenko has no nuclear weapons or entry to them.

“It is a Russian weapon, if it exists, on the territory of​​​​Belarus, Putin is not going to permit this weapon close by inside a cannon shot.” as a result of I’m so robust and I can reply,” – says Oleg Zhdanov.

As for weapons, in accordance with Oleg Zhdanov, Lukashenko all the time surprises inspecting the fight effectiveness of your troopers. They’ve been following since March 2, 2022.

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“We’ve already misplaced, there have been greater than 80 of them, final 12 months we stopped counting. In reality, he introduced the Polonaise part to the coaching floor. He knowledgeable one brigade, took it to the coaching floor, and examined its combating skill. We’re monitoring this example. As for the troops protecting the state border, there have been as many as six battalions, about 1800-2000 navy personnel in outfitted protection positions, so they’re on obligation there at this time . They’re modified on a rotating foundation,” says the navy professional.

In line with Andrei Demchenko, consultant of the state border service, we’re not trying any assortment of forces and strategies to the borders.

“I’d be extra involved about these Russian aviation belongings which might be positioned there on the territory of ​​Belarus, the tactical group. And remember, such a blocking function is excellent, for my part. The very fact is that the bottom of the Belarusian financial system is positioned inside a 100-kilometer zone of our border. And our drones fly 1000 kilometers,” says Oleg Zhdanov.

Lukashenko did every thing to make it an actual downside for Belarus go to warfare towards Ukraine on the Russian aspect, the navy professional believes.

“The reality is that he gave Russia loads of weapons. It allowed the Russian Federation to take away tools for long-term storage in Belarus. He had only a few reserves of his personal left. It allowed Russian troopers to recruit each cellular and armed forces from the Belarusian military”, stated the navy professional.

In line with Oleg Zhdanov, at this time the military of Belarus consists of solely 45 thousand navy personnel, and the Ministry of Protection – 60 thousand.

“There’s nothing significantly scary about it. I feel they aren’t prepared for such a giant warfare, the place it isn’t probably that there can be such grains of flesh as we’ve got right here. As well as, Belarusian society can be watching. Nobody blocked their web. They may see what is going on in Ukraine,” says Oleg Zhdanov.

Let’s do not forget that analysts on the Institute for the Research of Warfare (ISW) imagine that Belarus’s assertion about using a battalion of Polonaise a number of launch rocket programs on the border with Ukraine could also be Russia’s efforts to extend its navy presence in Russia. Republic.

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