President of Belarus asks for blessing for usurpation of power
On the last visit, the conversation did not seem to work out. The Russian president’s press secretary even had to refute the rumors about Lukashenko’s hasty departure home: no, everything was supposedly noble – the president of Belarus was present at the Kremlin reception. But even so, from this feast Alexander Grigorievich clearly returned without a sip of slurp.
Otherwise, he would not have continued his bitter complaints about the dark, beyond-the-heart forces that prevent him from holding honest presidential elections. Moreover, the forces, including – and, more precisely, first of all – Russian ones. “It is clear that behind them (opponents of the current Belarusian government. – A.V.) puppeteers are standing, Lukashenko said. – They are on the one and on the other hand: they live in Poland and are thrown from Russia. We will talk about this with President Putin in the near future at the meeting, but this situation is very complicated.
The most up-to-date fake technologies are being applied, there is interference from abroad in our elections, internal affairs … But we are not a nuclear power. We cannot take a nuclear warhead, swing and shout, or talk about hypersonic weapons, which we will answer. We are an ordinary Central European country, peace-loving, aimed at a quiet life. And we simply cannot threaten anyone in this connection. “
Now, Dmitry Peskov did not have to defend Lukashenko, but defend himself from him: “The Russian Federation has never intervened, does not intervene and does not intend to interfere in anybody’s electoral processes, especially in the electoral processes that our ally Belarus has .. “Probably, some arguments should be provided by the party that accuses.”
In general, Lukashenko and Putin will have something to talk about. And there is reason to believe that this time the conversation will stick together and come out very fruitful. According to informed sources, the “client” is quite “ripe”. Or, speaking the language of diplomacy, I agree to a deeper form of integration within the Union State. In exchange for – and to hell with diplomacy – the actual usurpation of power.
It is difficult to characterize what is happening today in Belarus. The two most popular and promising opposition nominees – banker Babariko and blogger Tikhanovsky – are in prison. The rest are removed from the election one by one. Numerous protest rallies are taking place in the country – “solidarity actions”. In some places, it comes to clashes with the police and riot police.
The latest peep of the Belarusian fashion – prints in the form of inscriptions “Stop cockroach!” (it’s clear who we are talking about) and Sasha’s three percent – this is the rating, according to opposition activists, today with Lukashenko. There is no normal pre-election sociology in the country, but even the most cautious experts admit that the chances of the current president to stay in power – subject to fair elections, of course – are not 100% to put it mildly.
Well, if Moscow decides to write off Lukashenko, completely deprives support, these chances generally tend to zero. And even in the case of unfair elections.
Rumor has it that, by the way, the Kremlin is not without pleasure watching the problems that the Belarusian president is facing today. It is difficult to say so far to what extent Lukashenko’s reproaches regarding the “hand of Moscow” are true. There is no evidence, as Peskov rightly points out, but it is clear that the matter is very intimate – there were few people standing by the candle. Obviously, however, the Kiev Kremlin is not interested in the Maidan a la Maidan.
In some admonition of a capricious partner – perhaps yes. But not in his overthrow. The last option is an equation with too many unknowns. The likelihood that the post-Lukashenko political process will be able to be kept under control, that it will go in the direction Moscow needs, is not so great. It’s much easier to deal with a wounded man who tempered Lukashenko’s ambitions.
You can accurately predict what exactly will be discussed in the upcoming conversation of national leaders. Of course, the last, 31st roadmap for integration, on which it was not possible to agree at the end of last year. According to Lukashenko himself, “this is a plan for the construction of supranational bodies (Union State. – A.V.) – Parliament, maybe the president will be so on. “
True, Alexander Grigoryevich assured that they “agreed not to talk” on “this subject”. But right there (an interview with Alexei Venediktov, December 24, 2019) he admitted that he was offered a “post in parliament”. What angered him to the extreme: “Even if they convict me and put me in handcuffs there, this will not happen! .. For many reasons, ranging from my personal qualities to my politics … I cannot move away from this policy … to still sit somewhere there, in Moscow or on the sidelines, in the suburbs … The first independent sovereign state in history … I built it with my colleagues … How, having created my child, I can bury him ?! “
The words of the Belarusian president are also confirmed by information from independent sources: it was assumed that Lukashenko would take the post of head of the Union State Parliament. To whom the role of the president was destined is not difficult to guess. According to the informed interlocutors of the MK observer, it was the Kremlin’s plan “A” to solve the problem of the transit of power. Which in January was retired – due to the stubbornness of the “father” and, possibly, some other circumstances.
But the plan is by no means a scam. Now it is acquiring in something even greater, independent significance.
It seems that two issues have not been resolved. Firstly, the size of Lukashenko’s compensation for accommodatingness is his status in the Union State. It is for this position, it seems, is the main bargaining. Secondly – guarantees that he will not turn on the back, as usual, after he stops pecking a fried rooster.
However, about the latter, perhaps, you don’t have to worry much. The bird of misfortune will not fly away from Alexander Grigorievich, even if he triumphantly wins the election. After such a campaign, the “father” will not even turn into a lame duck, but into an immobilized insect. We will not specify which one specifically.
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