On the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, Hong Kong shares rebounded after falling below 19,000 points on Friday and closed at 19,362 points, the market fell for two consecutive weeks. The Hang Seng Index rebounded more than 500 points on the last day of trading, mainly because the continent’s economic data showed that inflationary pressure was not strong and the market believed there was room for the central government to launch measures of stimulus. However, no major moves like RRR cuts were launched during the holidays.
Stocks of building materials for shipping have the opportunity to peak
Since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released the eagle at the global central bank governors’ meeting, the trend in US interest rates has remained bullish, but US equities appear to be gradually adjusting to rising interest rates. the return of funds and the high US exchange rate, the three major indices rose for the third consecutive week last week and reversed the decline of the last 3 weeks. The Dow Jones Index closed at 32,151 points on Friday, up 377 points in a single day, the Nasdaq closed at 12,112 points, up 250 points, and the S&P 500 closed at 4,067 points, up 61 points. . To sum up the whole week, the Dow was up nearly 2.7%, the S&P 500 was up 3.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 4.1%, the biggest gain in six weeks.
The Fed hawk has cast a shadow over US and global growth, with an immediate impact on demand for goods. Over the past month, the Baltic Sea Index, which represents container transport, has continued to decline, causing a repeated decline in shipping inventories. Orient Overseas (316) has fallen for 7 consecutive days, with a cumulative decline in 19%, hitting a low of 141 yuan and closing at 144.7 yuan. This is even more evident on the traditional export days on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival.
According to Taiwan’s “Economic Daily”, the Shanghai Export Container Index (SCFI) announced by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange fell 10% on a weekly basis and the decline from the Far East to the West in the United States intensified to 12% . The newspaper described an avalanche of global container shipping rates in August, dropping weekly. Traditional Asian holidays like Mid-Autumn Festival and Lunar New Year are the days of the goods rush, but there is no goods rush this year. The US line collapsed and became the hardest hit area. It’s been down for five consecutive weeks. Due to the drop in freight rates on European and American routes, oversupply, part of the shipping capacity has been shifted to Asian or South American lines, which put pressure on the freight rates on these routes. In Europe, transport tariffs are also under pressure due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and the shortage of natural gas.
The industry pointed out that global port congestion and logistical chaos have not been resolved, only that inflation and slowdown have reduced orders and the volume of goods has dropped dramatically, so supply capacity is still in excess. Changes in freight rates are difficult to predict and traditionally November is another peak period for shipping when there will be a clearer indication of the boom.
The past two years have been the golden years for traditional cyclical stocks, with transportation, coal, steel, oil and building materials all doing well. Several cycles have begun to adjust since last year. Building materials appear to have been dragged down by rising energy costs and falling demand. China National Building Materials’ share price (3323) appears to have fallen from a high level and interim earnings at the end of June this year were reduced by more than 30%. Steel and metal stocks also recorded a decline in the sector cycle. Since building materials, steel, and glass all consume a lot of energy, the industry cycle may decrease due to rising energy prices. Some of the relevant stock prices have already reflected negative factors, and some are not yet fully reflected. , it is worth paying attention to investors buying cyclical stocks.
Freight has an impact on the cost of goods and at the same time reflects the global trade situation. From the maritime market it can be seen that the economic situation is dark. Originally, port logistics and congestion would have raised freight rates, but now there is no increase, indicating that consumers are starting to be unable to bear the various cost increases.
US financial officials have decided to sacrifice the economy to keep prices down. The impact on trade is expected to gradually emerge. The mainland has always relied on the two engines of export and investment to drive growth. It can be seen that in the future Chinese exports will be under pressure and can only be supported by the internal consumption of the third largest engine.
The United States “Hahaha” can deal with China
This time the Hong Kong stock market fell below 19,000 points and mainland China’s local science and technology stocks were under pressure, while large state-owned enterprises included China Mobile (941) and China Overseas (688) and performance of three barrels of oil was relatively stable. These companies have state support behind them. Also, the activity is mainly in the mainland, so the impact is less, so the stock price outperformed the market.
During the Mid-Autumn Festival, Lu Yuren communicated with a wealthy American man who is familiar with the situation in the United States, who described that relations between China and the United States are quite poor now. His point of view is that Russia is now starting a war in Europe and the US is not really affected. Since the US has food and energy, it is not threatened by Russia’s oil and food war, so it is “relaxed” and has plenty of room to deal with China.
The rich said that if the United States wants to go to war with China, in addition to a hot war, there are still many fronts that can be fired, such as technology, trade and other fields, in fact the confrontation in these areas is already started, so the Sino-American relationship in the coming years is worrying, which will affect exports and trade will be affected. After hearing what the rich man said, I understand that the major stocks of state-owned enterprises can become a haven in a declining market.
Jin Riku
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