After President Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia on Nov. 14, Sino-US relations started to stir.
The easiest area of cooperation between China and the United States is the climate field. A day later, on Nov. 15, US climate envoy John Kerry met with Xie Zhenhua, China’s special envoy for climate change, in an office of the Chinese delegation at the COP27 meeting.
But economic and trade talks are getting more attention.
On November 16, the People’s Bank of China announced that Governor Yi Gang will meet with US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Yi Gang told reporters after the meeting, “We had broad, in-depth and sincere dialogues, which were very constructive.” The expression “very constructive” is very positive.
On the same night, it was also announced that Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, met with Allen, chairman of the US-China Trade Council, and a US business delegation headed by him.
The November 18 meeting will be even more important, as it will touch on the most delicate Sino-US trade issue. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with US Trade Representative Dai Qi at the informal meeting of APEC leaders in Bangkok, Thailand. The two sides conducted sincere, professional and constructive exchanges on Sino-US economic and trade issues and multilateral and regional economic and trade issues of common concern. Both sides agreed to continue communicating. The word “professional” in this post-meeting briefing has never been used in the past, indicating that the assembly is no longer involved in political wrangling.
The frequent contacts between the economic teams of the two countries have made it felt that some changes have taken place.
Liang Ming, director of the Foreign Trade Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told CCTV’s WeChat public account “Wang Yuan Tan Tian”, that after both China and the United States completed some important domestic policy agendas , there is a window of opportunity to stabilize Sino-US relations. The two countries need a more dynamic space for cooperation.
The “main political programs of the two countries” referred to by Liang Ming are the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the midterm elections in the United States. But I think the problem is more on the American side. Before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, if the United States were to seek cooperation, China would not resist. Conversely, American public opinion tends to be anti-Chinese, and the democratic government does not want to show friendly relations with China before the midterm elections, so as not to become an electoral burden. After the midterm elections, especially when the opposing Republican Party did not win the legendary “red wave” victory, Biden’s political space has expanded, and he can do some practical things.
There are several places the US wants to seek cooperation from China:
1. Cooperate on climate issues and let her act as a global climate leader.
2. Conceding to the United States on economic and trade matters, maintaining smooth logistics, and assisting the United States in controlling inflation.
3. Stay away from Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and don’t support Moscow.
4. Help control North Korea on the Korean peninsula and tell Kim Jong-un not to test ICBMs that could threaten the United States.
Biden wants to get real results so he can fight for re-election. But diplomatic negotiations are mutual: if you want China to help you, you have to make concessions.
It can be summarized thus:
1. Diplomacy is not about principles, but about practical interests. The biggest advantage of the US president is electoral interests, so after the midterm elections there will be room for Sino-US cooperation.
2. The window period will not be too long, about a year. Because a year later, it will be the first battle period of the 2024 presidential election, and anti-China issues will once again dominate.
3. Don’t let these short-term changes in Sino-US relations fool you into thinking that the good days of Sino-US friendship will return. Not anymore, those days are gone forever. In the future, the tone of Sino-US relations will still be confrontational, but sometimes it will be milder, as it is now, and sometimes it will be more intense, as it was before. But in the end, it’s still a struggle: Hong Kong has to keep changing under this new normal and find its own way to survive and develop.
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Lu Yongxiong
